Stars 15/30 - ATs

WillMagic · #1 10-24-2005, 04:30 AM

I've been at the table for an orbit. Villain seems to be a decent aggressive player, from what little I've seen.

PokerStars 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, CO raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, CO calls.

Flop: (7 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises...

Will

AllIn3High · #2 10-24-2005, 04:38 AM

I don't like it, if I'm villian I'm calling with any hand I'm value betting on the river, no way I give you credit for an 8 here, TAGs pull of way too much FPS HU to fold. I check and call or check and fold here.

#3 10-24-2005, 05:18 AM

I think that this move should be highly dependant on your table image at the time. Against players that are paying attention you have to have somewhat of a tight passive image to pull off this move. I think that this is a good time to use it because its likely he's betting ace high here. If he had a pair already he would have popped you on the turn to protect against over cards.

Nick Royale · #4 10-24-2005, 05:36 AM

I think the only hand that you will get your opponent to fold that we want to fold is A-high. And since I don't think A-high is betting this river I don't like the check/raise.

WillMagic · #5 10-24-2005, 05:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the only hand that you will get your opponent to fold that we want to fold is A-high. And since I don't think A-high is betting this river I don't like the check/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that ace-high isn't betting this river often. The thing is...we aren't beat. Like, ever. Every hand that beats us - any jack, any eight, AA-QQ, TT, and 99 - all of them raise either the flop or the turn. I think he has ace-high more than he has a hand that beats us, and I think he'll fold ace-high a huge percentage of the time when he holds it.

ArturiusX · #6 10-24-2005, 05:48 AM

Fruity, and stars is the site to try this (full of overthinkers), but not quite the right time and place.

WillMagic · #7 10-24-2005, 06:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Fruity, and stars is the site to try this (full of overthinkers), but not quite the right time and place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alrighty then, if it's not quite the right time and place what changes in the details of the hand would make it the right time and place?

Will

Nick Royale · #8 10-24-2005, 06:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Every hand that beats us - any jack, any eight, AA-QQ, TT, and 99 - all of them raise either the flop or the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point. But since we're practically readless I think he's much more likely to have played a hand like TT/99/77 passive or slowplayed Jx/AA/KK (these hands shouldn't be too afraid of giving freecards), than he is betting A-high on the river since he know you'll check/call with an A. Otoh you stand to gain ~4BB by raising and get A-high to fold, but only lose 1BB if he actually has a hand that beat you.

A quick calc:
I assume he hold a better hand than yours when he betsthe river 75% of the time (TT/99 etc.). I assume he'll fold A-high 75% of the time, but always call with a hand that beats you.

Check/call:
EV: 0.5*7.5*0.25 - 1*0.75 = 0.18BB

Check/raise:
EV: 7.5*0.25*0.75 - 2*0.75 + 8.5*0.25*0.5*0.25 - 2*0.75 = 0.17BB

I think the chance of getting him to fold TT/99 makes the check/raise better, even if he does it very infrequently it will swing the cals by alot. I don't play 15/30 so please give me some feedback on my assumptions. And if I messed up the calcs somewhere. Reading your last post I think you believe he'll hold A-high more often on this river than 25%, but since I can't see that hand betting this river I'm not so sure. Bet/folding this river with A-high would really suck IMO (EDIT: villain bet/folding). Could agree he'll fold A-high more often than 75% if he bets the river though.

WillMagic · #9 10-24-2005, 07:18 AM

Here's my take.

He could have made one of two mistakes on this hand. He could have slowplayed Jx/AA/KK/what have you on the flop and turn - a passive mistake. Or, he could have bet the river with Ace-high - an aggressive mistake. I postulate that the average 15/30 player is more likely to make the latter mistake than the former. He might think that on the river, when I check, that he was guaranteed at least a split and he might get me to fold an ace. Who knows. Bad play, for sure, but quite possible.

But whatever. We are talking about two rare events, and our judgments of the actual probabilities are going to be off. I do think that 75% for having me beat as opposed to having ace-high is too high.

Will

Nick Royale · #10 10-24-2005, 07:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He could have made one of two mistakes on this hand. He could have slowplayed Jx/AA/KK/what have you on the flop and turn - a passive mistake. Or, he could have bet the river with Ace-high - an aggressive mistake. I postulate that the average 15/30 player is more likely to make the latter mistake than the former.

[/ QUOTE ]
Another good point. Well played.