Hand from the current party 100+9

WillMagic · #1 02-10-2005, 11:15 PM

The Bad Guy in this hand is someone I know i've played with before, and my vague notion is that he/she is a strong, conservative player.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) converter

MP3 (t1040)
CO (t665)
Button (t2270)
SB (t2065)
BB (t2055)
UTG (t1095)
UTG+1 (t835)
UTG+2 (t1605)
Hero (t3325)
Bad Guy (t1390)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to t90, Bad Guy raises to t225, 5 folds, Hero calls t135.

Flop: (t495) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Bad Guy bets t400, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t895

ZBTHorton · #2 02-10-2005, 11:18 PM

The ONLY hand he can possibly have that your ahead of is AK..and even then he has 10 outs coming down the stretch...lay it down big man.

woodguy · #3 02-10-2005, 11:24 PM

You have to bet the flop to find out where you are at because when you check his bet is automatic and tells you nothing.

You are essentially giving him credit for AA or KK, and that's a pretty tight range. He could easily have AK, AQs, 99-77 etc.

350-400 will tell you all you need to know., and it should put him to a decision for all his chips (especially if the bet is 400)

You may have folded the best hand here.

Regards,
Woodguy

WillMagic · #4 02-10-2005, 11:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You have to bet the flop to find out where you are at because when you check his bet is automatic and tells you nothing.

You are essentially giving him credit for AA or KK, and that's a pretty tight range. He could easily have AK, AQs, 99-77 etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with your assessment because of the small size of the preflop reraise. It's only 2.5x...and when a strong player makes it that small before the blind-stealing stage, I'm tempted to downgrade the probabilities of 99-77 and AQ-AK being in her range. Basically I think she's going to be holding AA and KK a lot more often than with a normal reraise.

I would like to hear what you guys think of this assessment, and if I'm turning into Phil Hellmuth PLEASE help me.

Will

woodguy · #5 02-10-2005, 11:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with your assessment because of the small size of the preflop reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

When a good player decides to play a hand they will often bring it in for a raise to take control of the hand and put the original raiser on the defensive.

The raise makes their opponents put them on a fairly narrow range and can cause them to play weak tight on flops that miss them.

The re-raise will also usually buy the button to have position for the rest of the hand.

Not everyone re-raises with only AA,KK,QQ,AK.

If that's your read that's fine, but in practice I find the range to be wider.

Especially from good players who go deep into tourneys.

Regards,
Woodguy