Huuuge River Overbet

rocketlaunch · #1 09-29-2005, 10:20 PM

Someone must have an opinion. Or is this just such an obvious play? I'm a limit player trying to learn NL, so help is greatly appreciated.

stu-unger · #2 09-29-2005, 10:34 PM

in my experience when a donk overbets he has the nuts or close to it, so i vote fold. my guess is a slowplayed J that filled up at some point that just knows u will think he is bluffing... the only thing that makes this a little tougher is that both draws made it on the river and u are ahead of a large range of them.

crosse91 · #3 09-29-2005, 10:42 PM

what j fills up here? J-4? j-3? j-2? limped from utg?

stu-unger · #4 09-29-2005, 10:58 PM

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what j fills up here? J-4? j-3? j-2? limped from utg?

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i know it sounds retarded but this is a live game and in my experience, people will play just about anything from any postiion. the op seemed to describe villain this way too.

rocketlaunch · #5 09-29-2005, 11:14 PM

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what j fills up here? J-4? j-3? j-2? limped from utg?

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Yes, he would definitely play hands like that from UTG. I mentioned this in the original description.

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UTG is a very loose player who plays 60-80% of his hands, so his range is really just about anything. However, after the flop he's normally pretty straight-forward--as much as I can tell in the time I've been there, every time he's bet, he's had the goods (even if it's goods made from Q2o).

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rocketlaunch · #6 09-29-2005, 11:12 PM

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in my experience when a donk overbets he has the nuts or close to it, so i vote fold. my guess is a slowplayed J that filled up at some point that just knows u will think he is bluffing... the only thing that makes this a little tougher is that both draws made it on the river and u are ahead of a large range of them.

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Those were the competing lines of thought running through my head when he bet. Was he value-betting a FH, or did he just river a smaller flush or an improbable straight?

He hadn't made bets like that, at least that I've seen, without having a good hand. And he's been respecting the flush when it hits, etc.

The problem was that I think he may have viewed me as someone he could push around. And he very well could have just had a bare J, or made the straight, or had been on a flush draw himself.

I thought he would have been a bit more aggressive with just a J on the flop, so I had to discount that quite a bit, so having a J that just filled up actually seemed to be less likely than either having flopped a FH, or hitting his 33 or 22, or rivering a flush.