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  #11  
Old 12-19-2005, 12:12 AM
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Default Re: $50 PLO8 hand

<font color="blue">A2s has an equity edge in LP against 5 callers</font>

Not this A2s. It's getting a playable flop with positive expectation less than 10% of the time (and then just barely). And five callers are bad for your likely equity, not good. You'll just about never make a decent high with this hand and you're likely splitting for low if it does come (or getting counterfeited). I believe you're directly losing money by raising this preflop.

<font color="blue">How weak-tight do you play?</font>

Did you read my reply to Felicia above? I'd rather raise A34x or KQJ9 in position than this particular hand.

<font color="blue">I've seen different players advocate different plays when you are holding a vulnerable nuts. I don't have a problem with jamming the flop, but I also don't have a problem with calling the flop and jamming the turn.</font>

This is a unique hand, not a generic 'vulnerable nuts' hand. It's very different to say, top set on a two flush, two straight board. You have a hand that's likely the best, and is still likely to be good on the turn. You have to start jamming the flop and making money from inferior hands at this point. There are a huge number of inferior hands that will pay you off now but won't later if scare cards come or their draw suddenly doesn't look as good with one card to come. And you have to build a big enough pot so you can all in on the turn if you hand is still good.

This is NOT a hand to wait and see if the turn is a safe card. Your equity is unlikely to increase past its current point with another card. This is very different to say top set on two low, two flush board where a safe turn card will increase your equity greatly.
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  #12  
Old 12-19-2005, 10:06 AM
jthegreat jthegreat is offline
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Default Re: $50 PLO8 hand

[ QUOTE ]
Not this A2s. It's getting a playable flop with positive expectation less than 10% of the time (and then just barely). And five callers are bad for your likely equity, not good. You'll just about never make a decent high with this hand and you're likely splitting for low if it does come (or getting counterfeited). I believe you're directly losing money by raising this preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure +EV less than 10% of the time? Next, you're also discounting the effect of bluffing the flop in position. Or you can take a free card if it's checked to you. There are several good reasons to raise this hand. No it's not a premium hand. Yes, it could be better. But it's still a hand worth raising in position.

[ QUOTE ]
This is NOT a hand to wait and see if the turn is a safe card. Your equity is unlikely to increase past its current point with another card.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's incorrect. It will increase, and significantly so, depending on your opponents' cards. In either case, I've already said I don't think it's a bad play either way.
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  #13  
Old 12-19-2005, 01:19 PM
FeliciaLee FeliciaLee is offline
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Default Re: $50 PLO8 hand (two dimes)

Okay, since I like to mess around with two dimes, I did some sims.

If six people see the flop with this hand (as was the case, if I'm reading it correctly), here are the pre-flop percentages:

6s Ad 2d Th 10459 20527 77753 0 38431 26752 4592 0.329
Qs Js 4h 2h 2934 8476 87670 2134 13809 36696 3632 0.132
Ks Qd Ah 3h 4884 13276 84067 937 13809 36696 3632 0.167
4s 8c 3d 7h 4652 27957 69879 444 7679 67809 2672 0.203
Tc 9c Jd Qh 3425 9030 82342 6908 0 0 0 0.084
Ts Kc Qc Jh 1213 11041 79710 7529 0 0 0 0.085

I just put in five random hands, along with the OP's real hand. I gave only him the A2, but made sure some of the other hands were suited, as well.

Surprise, surprise. He should raise it up. Of course, this is assuming that 1) no one else has an A2, suited or otherwise, 2) someone DOES have a likely second best low (A3), 3) the other hands really ARE this lousy.

So, I guess this is something to think about, and I'll address Phil's likely scenario (versus what really happened) in the next post...
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  #14  
Old 12-19-2005, 01:36 PM
FeliciaLee FeliciaLee is offline
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Default Re: $50 PLO8 hand (two dimes flop)

[ QUOTE ]
How much do you propose raising here? Pot? And how do follow up on what will likely be a totally missed flop? On a two low flop? The trouble with raising low equity, low playability hands like this is that unless you follow through with bluffs, you become transparent post flop when you do hit.

[/ QUOTE ]
Okay, let's say that the other hands really are as icky as the sim. Theoretically we should raise the pot (in position, knowing likely everyone will call the full raise).

And then, Phil's first scenario: A missed flop...

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1413317
pokenum -o8 ad 2d 6s th - 2h 4h js qs - ah 3h qd ks - 3d 4s 7h 8c - 9c tc jd qh - ts jh qc kc -- td 7c kh
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 300 enumerated boards containing 7c Td Kh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
6s Ad 2d Th 17 17 283 0 85 36 0 0.188
Qs Js 4h 2h 0 0 216 84 24 53 0 0.118
Ks Qd Ah 3h 23 26 273 1 24 53 0 0.122
4s 8c 3d 7h 35 44 256 0 4 117 0 0.138
Tc 9c Jd Qh 3 37 179 84 0 0 0 0.145
Ts Kc Qc Jh 34 92 124 84 0 0 0 0.288

Once again, surprise, surprise. We're really not in that bad of shape. And lucky us, we have position over the guy with the wrap. Having position here would be a big advantage, imo.

So I have to assume that this guy is going to lead right out. I mean, he would be a fool not to, and although there are several hundred fools at the PLO850 tables, most aren't this foolish. They usually lead right out when they hit.

So where does that lead us? Well, I'm assuming he will lead out, and everyone else will drop. With this kind of expected value do we call? Do we call a half sized bet? Pot sized? If we absolutely know we will be HU? If we know that no further bets can be made and we will receive two free cards (assuming one player is all-in)? If we assume we will fold on fourth if we don't improve?

What say the mob?
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  #15  
Old 12-19-2005, 01:43 PM
Wolffink Wolffink is offline
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Default Re: $50 PLO8 hand


As has been pointed out how you play the preflop is variable. If you sometimes raise and sometimes call with this hand it's fine. I'd put it 75% raising in late position and 25% calling. I might not raise the pot as I think my hand is okay multi-way and not so great with limited number of callers. There's no counterfeit protection and no real opportunities for high except the A-2 flush draw. You've got a good hand, but not a great hand. You might have preflop equity but when you raise you not only have to think about people calling your raise but if you're the favorite when you're re-raised. You're going to be folding this hand on the flop a lot.

Here if do raise and then you are re-raised preflop you are a dawg. Besides aces, you don't want to face a hand like A-2-3-K or even A-2-4-x.

The flop you just call. You're sandbagging. Sometimes this works. I think it worked here. You also get to see a safe card and if your low card comes, you're cooking with gas. If it comes high--well you know your str8 already is vulnerable to a higher str8, a flush, or a full house. So there's something to be said for waiting. The turn card might ruin everything and make you a dawg. The other option I like is to raise it a $1 or $2--and just build the pot. I'd want to see about everyone just call it and not someone raise and blow everyone out.

The turn comes favorable and you pull the trigger. You make it look easy.
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  #16  
Old 12-19-2005, 04:13 PM
gergery gergery is offline
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Default Re: $50 PLO8 hand

[ QUOTE ]

A2s has an equity edge in LP against 5 callers

Not this A2s. It's getting a playable flop with positive expectation less than 10% of the time (and then just barely). And five callers are bad for your likely equity, not good….

[/ QUOTE ]

This is flat out wrong. A2 has better equity with more callers. And it’s ability to continue is higher than just about any other 2-card combo. And it is almost certainly higher than fair share equity barring weird hands taking your outs.

[ QUOTE ]
I believe you're directly losing money by raising this preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Completely game dependent. There are definitely games where raising this preflop is profitable.

[ QUOTE ]
You have a hand that's likely the best, and is still likely to be good on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any A,2,7,8,9,T,J or club makes a potentially better hand for high or low. Only 3,4,5,6,Q,K without clubs leave you in this position. So with multiple opponents who have something they can call with here, it’s unlikely your hand will still be as good.


[ QUOTE ]
You have to start jamming the flop and making money from inferior hands at this point….This is NOT a hand to wait and see if the turn is a safe card. Your equity is unlikely to increase past its current point with another card. This is very different to say top set

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree

-g
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  #17  
Old 12-19-2005, 07:44 PM
DOMIT DOMIT is offline
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Default Re: $50 PLO8 hand (two dimes flop)

Are you asking if we'd continue with this same hand given the flop of :

7c Td Kh

??
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  #18  
Old 12-19-2005, 07:51 PM
FeliciaLee FeliciaLee is offline
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Default Re: $50 PLO8 hand (two dimes flop)

[ QUOTE ]
Are you asking if we'd continue with this same hand given the flop of :

7c Td Kh

??

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, one of many discussions I was hoping would spring up.
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  #19  
Old 12-19-2005, 10:22 PM
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Default Re: $50 PLO8 hand

Interesting hand. Personally, I'd raise the max preflop, and then given this flop, bet/raise the max.

However, if you just call preflop as you did, then I like the way you play the flop (just call). It is possible you are drawing dead for high, so you don't want to initiate a raising war on that street in a pot that's unraised PF. Analogous to the adage "don't go broke in an unraised pot" from NLHE. However, once that turn completes your low, raise the max when the action gets to you. Here you're hoping to pressure all the flush &amp; boat draws out of the hand, as well as any other 6-T straight out there that currently ties you. Your hand is a powerhouse b/c it uses all 4 cards; opponents will have a hard time giving you credit for such a strong 2-way hand and will frequently draw &amp; pay you even if you bet the max.



On the tangent about whether to raise this hand preflop, I'd raise it close to 100% of the time, almost regardless of position (depends on tendencies of other spots in the game). A2 with suits and the 6 is a big hand, building a pot early is a good idea, not to mention that if you aren't raising this type of hand PF then it will make achieving a high enough PFR % to disguise your very big hands difficult.
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  #20  
Old 12-19-2005, 10:39 PM
gergery gergery is offline
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Default Re: $50 PLO8 hand

what is your plan on the turn if a non-low, non-club hits (i.e most of the deck), esp. since most sane people with the nut straight and no redraws here are not going to war on that flop?

-g
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