Stars 11+R 25k Hand - 3 handed

[TheTimeIsUp]

3 handed

Payouts :
1st : ~11k
2nd : ~6k
3rd : ~4k


Chip counts :
Hero 600k
Other 1 mil (been playing pretty tight)
Big Stack 5 mil

Blinds : 30k/60k

Big Stack just knocked out somebody, raising all in first to act with 56o and beating 33. He has been pushing all in nearly every hand.


Hero has 99 in the BB. (Best hand he has been dealt in the last 100 hands.)

Big Stack pushes on the button.
Other calls all in.

What does hero do?

[djg40]

Insta-call. If you bust, there's 4k. It is more likely you have the best hand and can triple up. I like my chances.

[ZBTHorton]

Insta fold. At the very best your against 2 overs...probably 3 overs.....I say make your money and take your chances HU.

[djg40]

Wouldn't your chances be much greater with more chips?

[ZBTHorton]

Well yeah..but how can you think 99 is good there?

[TomHimself]

I would fold and try and slide up in the money. Like Zb said, your prolly up against 3 overs which I dont wANt to risk my tourney on.

[TheJackal]

Fold, pray the other guy gets sucked out on.

[bcotton]

i was watching this hand.. wand when hero was considering for so long i was thinking he had something along the lines of QQ, JJ, AK or [maybe] TT.. I was thinking 99 was just a hair under the line for going 3 way.

Regardless of reads, it's still very likely you are up against 2 overs (between the 2 of them) and somewhat likely 3..

To me it'd be an easy fold with at least a 30-40% chance to move up in the money 2k ..

I guess i am avoiding the question, however. would the 30-50% chance that you triple up improve your chances of getting 1st enough to be worth the push here? I cant see how.

[Lloyd]

Nobody is looking at this from a $EV perspective (at least a calculation versus instinct) and that's the only way to decide what's best. The hardest part is deciding on a range of hands. My best guess would be any two cards for the initial raiser and AA-77, AK-AT, KQ for the caller.

There are 6.6 M chips in play and the three are playing for an additional $9k in prize money.

If the hero folds he'll have 540k in chips. The chip leader will win about 31% of the time. When the chip leader LOSES, the hero has 8.2% of the chips in play. When the chip leader wins, the hero has 8.2% of the chips in play but is now guaranteed second place prize money.

Hero calls and chip leader loses (69% of the time)
$EV = .69 * .082 * $9k = $509
Hero calls and chip leader wins (31% of the time)
$EV = .31 * (.082 * $5k (1st - 2nd) + $2k (3rd - 2nd)) = $747
Total $EV if Hero calls = $509 + $747 = $1256


If the hero calls and wins he will have 1.8M in chips. If he loses, he's out. He'll win about 38% of the time versus those ranges. So, 62% of the time he's out with no additional equity. 38% of the time he has 1.8M in chips (27.3% of total in play). That's a $EV of $933 (.38 * .273 * $9k) for calling.

Folding is superior to calling with the hand ranges assumed.

[bcotton]

I bow down to your thoroughness, ihave a bad habit of just "guess-timating" my numbers, and i shouldnt when i have time to do it the right way.