99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
You really need to raise this pre-flop. If you're been raising often and people are more likely to play back at you then they're more likely to play back at you with hands that you do well against. If someone 3 bets you with AJ or AT or KQ, realize that they're going to most often narrow the field which adds a ton of value to your hand and lets you play without playing for set value.

I guess the hand looks fine, otherwise. I'm not sure about the flop call, but I guess its fine given your reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. btw, look who is back. thought you were a working stiff.

[istewart]

I'd like to say first that it looks like a check/fold to me but I can see arguments otherwise.

Second of all won't one of two things happen?

1. We bet, he raises. Our hand is protected but we're drawing to two outs and need to fold.

2. We bet and everyone calls still getting odds to draw to gutshots, overcards, 5-out draws, etc. It seems we will be betting while drawing to two outs (or dead if JT and AA are out) far too often for this bet to be +EV.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

[molawn2mo]

"this is precisely why we're disagreeing on this hand. you're taking a look at the turn action to justify flop actions. however, when you don't have the benefit of knowing in advance that the button will check behind on the turn, AND that the turn is not a scare card, you can't so easily make that flop judgement."

6. ya know, i knew when i typed that it was wrong and failed to edit it out after... "especially...." though I do still feel that your characterization was a bit narrow. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

7. As I would have played it, that is, as if the flop went bet raise, call, call or something simililar. I am out of there on the turn A unless I had odds on my 2 outer. If I am heads up on the turn, I think bet/fold may be correct.

[ErrantNight]

if we bet and he raises we're almost certainly beat and can safely fold.

if we bet and everyone calls they may well have appropriate odds to call, but it's better than offering them infinite odds when we have the best hand, plus we may fold hands that have outs against use (a weak suited ace, say).

[edited to add: this whole conversation is predicated on the likelihood that, given the action thus far, the button can be put on AA, KK, or AKs (perhaps AKo), and is therefore more likely to have unimproved overs than not, and the other two opponents could have literally called that flop with anything, but now, on a safe turn, are likely to be behind us, with the caveat that UTG may have a weak Q that they're afraid to bet... if we're called in multiple places on the turn, the river plan obviously changes)

[ErrantNight]

in which case you're investing a heckuva lot more to find out that you're behind, with your method, and opening yourself up to more bluffs, as your bet/call flop, donkbet turn might open up suspicion if your opponent is overly aggressive.

i think a much stronger argument could be made to check/call the flop, check/fold the turn... as i'm currently debating with istewart (although i still think a turn bet is better)

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
it's either bet/fold or check/fold. assuming villain caps preflop with AK, it's far more likely that he has that than a AKs or AKo. if he has JJ or TT, or they're out there, any combination of betting/calling at this point may force them out. but really, the point is to prevent AK from drawing for free. if you're raised, easy fold. if you're called, easy check on the river (and the only person that should reasonably have a Q after it's checked to you on the turn is, perhaps, UTG). it's a big pot, do everything you can to win it. here, that means not offering infinite odds on the turn to hands with outs against you. on the flop, with two cards to come and offering odds for everyone to call you with anything, there's no point.

i had originally been ok with the turn check, and i'm willing to hear argument that it's preferable, but the more i've analyzed this hand, the more clear it becomes that a turn bet is best.

[/ QUOTE ]

your last paragraph should stand as a monument. so many times threads get started and perpetuated as a "who's right and who's wrong pissing contest. I, for one, read posts and get a quick gut reaction on how to play, many times using a stream of consciousness type approach. It puts me to the test as to whether my gut and reading ability stands up when at the tables in real time. To be forced to confront your gut reaction with scientific scrutiny is quite instructive. We must be able to realize better plays when confronted with the logic of same. Thank you.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
in which case you're investing a heckuva lot more to find out that you're behind, with your method, and opening yourself up to more bluffs, as your bet/call flop, donkbet turn might open up suspicion if your opponent is overly aggressive.

i think a much stronger argument could be made to check/call the flop, check/fold the turn... as i'm currently debating with istewart (although i still think a turn bet is better)

[/ QUOTE ]

i take back the praise that i heaped upon you in my prior post (before reading this). [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

i will again consider your position and reasoning.

"Anyone else", he said as an aside to get certain posters more involved in this one; this, so as to get a broader opinion.

[ErrantNight]

thank you, mo.... but you do realize i'm arguing for a turn bet (which you also advocate), but not the flop bet which you're focusing on, right? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
thank you, mo.... but you do realize i'm arguing for a turn bet (which you also advocate), but not the flop bet which you're focusing on, right? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

clear as a bell, captain!