$1000 buy in nlh hand at bellagio

[J.Brown]

This hand has been bothering me for a little over a month so I wanted some feedback on this play. I already have my own opinion about how it was played...so here goes. I had played all day (10+ hrs) down to final 3 tables of this nlh event, that had 220+ entries. I had played rock solid, only one bad play when I doubled up two kings with my two jacks earlier in the event and it could have been avoided, but... With the blinds at (my memory fails exactly but) 300-600 and 50 or 75 ante, I have about 9500 and a medium stack for my table I look down on two jacks on the button. Folded around to me and I make it 4000 to go and I am promptly raised all of my chips by the small blind who is the chip leader of the entire tournament by about triple anyone elses chips. He had not played a hand since I had joined that table, roughly 45 minutes, what do you do? Please critique and give idea of best plan of attack, pre and post raise. Those damn jacks are so tricky in nlh!!!! Thanks JBrown

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I can't say what I would do there. It sounds like he's tightened up, but that doesn't mean he has a better hand here. You are in the steal position, so he doesn't have to give you credit for any kind of hand. As such, he doesn't need to have a hand either. What I would do would depend upon my read, which is impossible to predict on the other side of the computer here.

What I would suggest is raising smaller. Big blind is 600, and you made it 4000. That's a lot more than I think you should go. Make it 1800 or so. That's enough to get them to fold junk, and it gives you room to make an extra decision in the hand. I will basically never put up 40% of my stack preflop, and then ever fold preflop. So, if raising big was done for a good reason, it should still only be done if you're willing to make the all-in call.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[ohkanada]

Assuming your memory of the blinds are correct, your raise was too large. With antes and a full table I probably raise to 2400.

The fact that you are in steal position makes his range of hands much wider than if it was an early position raise. The fact that he has not played a hand for 45 minutes does seem to imply that he is not overly loose. The other thing is that if he has 3x the number of chips of 2nd place then I would guess he has 4x or 5x your chips.

I am guessing that a call is in order but I am sure it is close. If I made a smaller raise then I probably muck, but after putting in 45% of your stack I think you are somewhat committed based on his stack size and your steal position. Hopefully he is doing this with a smaller pair 99/TT or overcards.

Ken Poklitar

[sdplayerb]

Somewhat of a reiteration of what the other two said. Preflop bet seems too large. I would have done 1800 or 2400 so I could fold to an all-in reraise.

But when your have put in 4,000 here is what my thinking would be:
He probably has AA,KK,QQ,AK. 18 possibilites for an over pair, 16 for AK. (actually I think AK is even a little more likely since nobody has already bet so more likely no A was out there). so let's call it 50/50 AK vs overpair.

You aren't position on the blind structure so let's say it is 300-600 ante 50..i'm guessing 8 handed. So was already 1300 in there. Plus your 4000. Cost the SB another 9200 to get in there so there is 14500 for your 5500 call. 29:11 odds or just above 2.5:1

overpair is 4.5:1 favorite, you are about an 11:10 favorite vs AK. So the odds work out just about perfect to make this call, so you were pot stuck.

Other considerations however:
1. He could possibly have AQs. He seems tight, but this is possible with his large stack. He could also have TT. With these two small possibilities, it raises your EV a little.

2. Chips lost are worth more than chips won. The 20K chips you'd have and not worth 3.5 times as much as you current 5500. So on a dead even EV basis where you'd be out if you lose, but can still play if you fold, you may consider folding.
2a. How good is your small stack play? If you have made many comebacks, those 5500 chips are worth a lot more. If you tend to go out quick or are a much better large stack player than small stack (i for one am better small stack that large stack), then go for it.

2b. Is your entire table tight like that player? If so, seems more possible to comeback. However the huge stack does have position on you in this case so stealing is going to be really tough.

All said. I'd probably call because I'm screwed on position being my tiebreaker and if I win i'm in great shape..

So raise only 3x to 4x knowing that chipleader isn't coming over the top of people all the time so you can get away from the hand easily.

SD

[Toro]

When I see an out of proportion raise like you made preflop I almost always read the player for a medium pair(nines thru jacks). The SB probably had the same read and has got to figure that you are practically pot committed and likely to call his reraise since the size of your bet is so large relative to your total stack so I don't believe he's bluffing. He's got a bigger pair and you're a huge dog. As distasteful as it may be I think you should have folded.
As the others have commented you can avoid this dilemma in the future by making a smaller raise preflop.

[Mackie]

another factor to consider in making this unplesant borderline decision is the payout structure - if it's top heavy I would lean towards a call - if it's flat lean towards a fold.