i just made a mistake, how bad was this one? 30/60 pstars hand

J.Brown · #1 01-31-2005, 05:52 PM

Here is the breakdown.

Very good game I am in late position with 87hh, early position raises, 3 people call in between, I gladly put my $60 in. Button calls as does the BB. So 7 of us take the flop. $420 in the pot.

Flop comes 953 rainbow. Checks around!!!!! Can you believe that one?

Turn comes J. No flush draws. Checked to me, I fire. Button raises, BB 3 bets, mid-position caps it.

What do you do with this double gutter?

KidPokerX · #2 01-31-2005, 05:56 PM

fold in a heartbeat

DcifrThs · #3 01-31-2005, 05:59 PM

what happened to checking /w outs...betting w/o outs.??

-Barron

Nate tha' Great · #4 01-31-2005, 06:12 PM

Call.

It's easy to come up with nightmare scenarios involving hitting the T and being beaten by a higher straight. On the other hand any 6 gives you the nuts, your hand is well-concealed, there's likely to be a huge amount of action on the river if you're against a set or two, and I think you're getting about the right pot odds to call and hope here.

andyfox · #5 01-31-2005, 06:43 PM

They all checked twice, I'd bet here every time. Who'd figure a guy who checked twice would cap?

J.Brown · #6 01-31-2005, 07:38 PM

pot was actually 435 going into the flop, forgot about the sb in my post.

i think betting is automatic in my spot with hand.............but what about when it comes back to you??

thanks andy, that was my exact line of thinking also. i had won several pots in this session against multi-way preflop action by betting on the turn.

like i said this was a Great online game. J.Brown

elindauer · #7 01-31-2005, 08:10 PM

I don't get it. Call. What's the problem? You are getting an overlay immediately to call, and you'll surely get plenty more in on the river if you hit, as there looks to be at least one set out.

Good luck.
Eric

elindauer · #8 01-31-2005, 08:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fold in a heartbeat

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be terrible. By my count he's 17:3 immediately, and this can be as much as 23:3 by the time the turn has completed. He's 5:1 against to make his straight, but if he does, it's a virtual lock he'll win. Even better, he'll surely get several bets in on the river if he does improve.

I'd estimate folding as a $100 mistake.

.83 (-3) + .17 (24) = ~1.6 big bets.

Good luck.
Eric

poker lessons: www.ericlindauer.com/poker.html

J.Brown · #9 01-31-2005, 08:32 PM

Thank you Eric.

I agree with you completely and haven't made a mistake like this in quite some time, although I do make poker errors. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] Just not of this nature.

The reason I posted this hand is because I made both a math and reading error out of total shock at the turn of events that unfolded. (The 3 betting and 4 betting cold by two players who had checked twice)

I was so shocked at what I did that I had to post about it both as a lesson to myself and all of the people who thought that folding was correct. It isn't and it is not even close. cheers. J.

TheDelChop · #10 01-31-2005, 09:09 PM

Maybe I am a little nieve, but I fail to see what good, if any, betting this turn is for you. You have some decent outs, the 6 will make you the nuts, and the ten will probably also, although it would suck to watch someone turn up QK. Why not just check, I agree that you should call after all the insanity, but what sort of fold equity are you really getting here and isn't that the point of firing out here when you don't have the best hand?