Daily Hand Post: play along in a marginal situation - Page 4

sweetjazz · #31 07-04-2005, 01:27 AM

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I'm getting 8:1 on a call. I don't have to be good that often for this call to be correct. On the turn, since I have good position, I can make a correct decision based on the action on the turn and keep myself from getting trapped, even if I hit a bigger hand.

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Come on, first of all you are not really getting 8:1. If the showdown occurred after the flop then this is an easy call. While your pot odds are 8:1, your effective odds are much worse.

Maybe I'm just not very good postflop, but I am not sure our position helps us that much. Say the turn is the Td. BB bets, one call and one fold, to you closing the action. Now what do we do? Okay, we call. River is 9c, BB bets, other player folds, we call. So we end up getting 7:2.5 on our call down. Will our hand be good often enough for this to show a profit? Possibly just slightly given the atrocius play. What about overcalling the river, though? If BB bets and our MP calls, do we overcall? We are likely beat, but will we see AJ in BBs hand and 33 in MPs hand often enough to warrant an overcall? Probably not, but I dunno.

I think the flop call might be right, but only because I assume the opponents are so bad that they might be calling with A2 here. It seems very marginal, and I don't think folding is all that bad. And with certain reads, I might fold instead.

Buck_65 · #32 07-04-2005, 01:35 AM

Ok seriously, what's the consensus on the flop call? We have to sides of the story here, so many of us have major leaks in our games. I think the flop is a clear fold. Others think its an easy call. Some of us are making our "small" mistake many, many times...

sweetjazz · #33 07-04-2005, 01:41 AM

It's so close that is probably doesn't matter. But I think it's a good hand to discuss, because it helps to clarify a lot of good poker concepts. I think this example is a good illustration of (1) the value of position, (2) effective odds.

This is probably a hand that weaker players whose postflop skills are still a significant work in progress are probably better off folding. For expert players, a call is probably marginal profitable. (Or so I'd speculate, being anything but an expert myself.)

Well that's my $0.02.

DMBFan23 · #34 07-04-2005, 01:42 AM

I usually fold the flop, but I can't argue with the facts: you are getting 8:1 with position.

I just don't think that's enough for me with all the overcallers, all the cards that will wreck you on the turn, and the fact that a 7 or 5 is less likely to be good for you than if the board weren't paired.

oreogod · #35 07-04-2005, 01:55 AM

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Also, why are people folding on a flop like this after limping with 57s?

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I don't limp on the button with 57s unless I have 3 limpers already in the pot. Am I giving up a marginal opportunity? Perhaps, but the pot size doesn't warrant the risk. I should have mentioned that in my previous post, sorry... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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Wow.... I've been going back reading over some old threads Jason T just told me about such as LINK and LINK , I am surprised to see the comments about 2 limpers on the button with a small 1 gap suited connector. Generally I have agreed with MLH's recomendation of only playing this hand preflop with 3 limpers. I can't say I am totally convinced, but I will adjust my game to see to incorporate these hands preflop to see where it takes me. Thanks for the heads up Jason....

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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Those are glorious links you have there. I love them.

Two things.
1.Why does everyone want to fold the flop??????
2.Has anyone ever set up a thread/website with all their favorite links of 2+2 threads?

mosch · #36 07-04-2005, 01:56 AM

Pre-flop: I think this is an easy call. It's going to put you in a lot of marginal situations, but that's okay. You've got position and Party 2/4 isn't a hotbed of tricky or aggressive players.

Flop: I call, and want the following parlay: a baby or a draw to come on the turn, and weak action to me.

Turn: we've got a winner... a baby AND a crappy draw, with no action to you. Bet it, and don't be terribly surprised if you get raised.

Turn: CO raised... you've got to call here, CO could have read your bet and the flock of calls as a position bet + a bunch of random unpaired cards. You're not going to win all the time here, but you'll win enough.

River: heads-up action. you're good here more than 9% of the time. Call and see which it is.

Man, I hate advocating a line that consists of 5 calls in a row, but in that game, I think that's the line I'd take.

Buck_65 · #37 07-04-2005, 02:09 AM

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River: heads-up action. you're good here more than 9% of the time. Call and see which it is.

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How do you figure? You think CO is pure bluffing here that often? I think not.

Jake (The Snake) · #38 07-04-2005, 02:10 AM

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1.Why does everyone want to fold the flop??????

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There are way too many things that have to go your way for you to end up winning the pot. Even when this does happen, you won't be winning much. You do run the risk of losing quite a bit though if you have/make a 2nd best hand.

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2.Has anyone ever set up a thread/website with all their favorite links of 2+2 threads?

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Guido's site if you havne't seen it.

oreogod · #39 07-04-2005, 02:18 AM

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1.Why does everyone want to fold the flop??????

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There are way too many things that have to go your way for you to end up winning the pot. Even when this does happen, you won't be winning much. You do run the risk of losing quite a bit though if you have/make a 2nd best hand.

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I think this is clearly dependant on several factors. Most importantly, how do u hold your own postflop. Lets just say for the sake of example, you have the postflop powers of clarkmeister/GoT/JoeTall...etc. I think its a call. Granted, I doubt many are at that level, but even being semi-decent I think its a call.

River...wow. Tricky. Got Check/raised and he bets the river...are we good here 8%? I probably fold. I think the rest of the hand looks pretty awesome.

PS. Yeah saw the Guido site....which reminds me, I still need to read that Shania thread. Just checking to see if there are other collections/sites out there I missed.

mosch · #40 07-04-2005, 02:25 AM

Yes, I think the CO is bluffing with overcards or an underpair at least that often. The turn flat-call of his raise indicates weakness, so he might figure that you'll fold if you don't improve.

I can't say that I've made a detailed study of opponent bluffs at 2/4, in this particular marginal situation, but I think I'm right.

That being said, if your plan is to fold if you don't hit your straight, there's no point in calling the turn raise.