redsox on opening day.... sunday +180 !!!!

[mace25]

yea... they probally loose to THE BIG UNIT and the YANKS........ but i am putting a buck on them with those odds!

i am also going to the game.... so lets go sox!

[DougOzzzz]

I thought the Sox would be +200 at least. Wells is one of Boston's worst starters. I'd stay away from this one...

[mace25]

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I thought the Sox would be +200 at least. Wells is one of Boston's worst starters. I'd stay away from this one...

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yea.......... wells is definitly over matched... but redsox yankees games are mostly always close. and i have bet on the redsox on opening day for the last 4 or 5 years.... (lost them all) so i have to! haha. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[DougOzzzz]

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I thought the Sox would be +200 at least. Wells is one of Boston's worst starters. I'd stay away from this one...

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yea.......... wells is definitly over matched... but redsox yankees games are mostly always close. and i have bet on the redsox on opening day for the last 4 or 5 years.... (lost them all) so i have to! haha. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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They've lost them all? Well, they are due, so they must win this one! Haha...

I am a Sox fan too, living on the border (CT) between Red Sox Nation and the Evil Empire. Been trying to make bets with a friend at work (a Yankee fan) on Sox-Yanks props the last couple weeks, but he seems unwilling to take the atrocious odds the Yanks are getting on almost everything. In fact, he seems to only want to make even odds bets. Why bet even money on the Sox to top the Yanks in the AL East when I can get 3.5 to 1 elsewhere?

We finally settled on a couple even money bets. I bet against the Yankees to win the AL Pennant (I think I'm robbing him here), and I bet under 10 wins for the Yankees in the season series against the Sox (19 games, we split if Yanks win 10-9). I think the 2nd bet might even favor him since the Yankees are likely to take a lead in the series the first 2 series with 2 Johnson starts and Schilling/Miller out.

He wanted to bet on the opening series too, but no agreement there.

[mrbaseball]

I'll be doing a full handicap of this game this weekend but just looking at some preliminary stuff line looks pretty close to fair leaning to Bosox advantage. If anything I think Boston may have some small edge here, especially if the line goes out further.

In past 3 Aprils Johnson is 9-3 with a 3.20 era (April seems to be historically his slowest month) while Wells is 8-2 with a 3.67 era in last 3 aprils which all else being equal makes Boston look tasty at +180. And Wells does have an affinity for pitching in Yankee Stadium. But Arod and Jeter have torched Wells in the past (especially Arod with 7 HRs off of him).

The emotion and hatred factor should have a leveling influence (ie throw out the statistics it's a grudge match to the death!). Boston is a World Champion and solidly winning team and probably worth a shot at this price. I can't imagine them being this big of a dog in any other game this season?

I'll do an in depth breakdown tommorow and figure out if I actually play this one or not. But my early lean is to Boston at this price. Johnson is really getting old and who really knows what he has left? Then again I suspect Wells has very little left himself?

I know there is no way on earth I lay this wood on the Yankees. I just need to determine if there is enough edge to warrant a Boston play.

[DougOzzzz]

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I'll be doing a full handicap of this game this weekend but just looking at some preliminary stuff line looks pretty close to fair leaning to Bosox advantage. If anything I think Boston may have some small edge here, especially if the line goes out further.

In past 3 Aprils Johnson is 9-3 with a 3.20 era (April seems to be historically his slowest month) while Wells is 8-2 with a 3.67 era in last 3 aprils which all else being equal makes Boston look tasty at +180. And Wells does have an affinity for pitching in Yankee Stadium. But Arod and Jeter have torched Wells in the past (especially Arod with 7 HRs off of him).

The emotion and hatred factor should have a leveling influence (ie throw out the statistics it's a grudge match to the death!). Boston is a World Champion and solidly winning team and probably worth a shot at this price. I can't imagine them being this big of a dog in any other game this season?

I'll do an in depth breakdown tommorow and figure out if I actually play this one or not. But my early lean is to Boston at this price. Johnson is really getting old and who really knows what he has left? Then again I suspect Wells has very little left himself?

I know there is no way on earth I lay this wood on the Yankees. I just need to determine if there is enough edge to warrant a Boston play.

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Those are small sample sizes - I'd take Johnson over Wells twice any day and 4 times on Sunday no matter when. The "grudge" factor too I think is overrated. Look at it like this: against who else will the Yankees NOT be at least a 2 to 1 favorite against at home with RJ on the mound? Most projection systems have Johnson continuing to be Johnson this year, while Wells is expected to drop off significantly. I'd list him as Boston's 4th best starter behind Schilling, Clement, and Arroyo. Possibly 5th once Miller is healthy.

Unlike most people I think Boston is at least as good as the Yankees, but this is the maybe the most extreme case of pitching matchups we'll see between the two.

[MicroBob]

nice analysis.

I agree that the odds certainly don't warrant taking the Yankees.
I got BOS at +182.


Figure the Big Unit doesn't go much more than 100 pitches at the most. s in his start against the AAA Blue Jays last week he did not have good numbers.
Heard on ESPN today that it was partly due to dropped pop-ups and that he DID have his slider working (Dave Campbell's observations from the Yankees back-field).

Don't know the forecast but I assume it will be a little bit chilly for a night game in NY.

Have to figure BOS has a 36% chance or so to win this matchup...thus taking them at +182 looks good to me.

[mrbaseball]

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I'd take Johnson over Wells twice any day and 4 times on Sunday no matter when

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It's all about the price. At what price do you take Boston? Your kind of thinking is why Johnson is always overbet and why the Yankees are always overbet and why their oppononents are more often than not very good values.

Once I dig through the numbers and determine the answer to "how often does it happen?" I'll know if I have a play or not. I'm guessing the answer will be it doesn't happen nearly often enough to lay that much wood on the Yankees but might possibly happen often enough to take a chance on Boston.

I haven't even looked at lines on my books yet but if I can get Boston +1.5 runs at close to even money it's a for sure play for me.

[DougOzzzz]

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I'd take Johnson over Wells twice any day and 4 times on Sunday no matter when

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It's all about the price. At what price do you take Boston? Your kind of thinking is why Johnson is always overbet and why the Yankees are always overbet and why their oppononents are more often than not very good values.

Once I dig through the numbers and determine the answer to "how often does it happen?" I'll know if I have a play or not. I'm guessing the answer will be it doesn't happen nearly often enough to lay that much wood on the Yankees but might possibly happen often enough to take a chance on Boston.

I haven't even looked at lines on my books yet but if I can get Boston +1.5 runs at close to even money it's a for sure play for me.

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Oh believe me I understand that almost always betting against the Yankees when RJ is on the mound will be a good bet. I'm just saying - this line doesn't look like what you'd expect. I'd be very surprised if we ever see the Yankees with RJ at home go below -200 at any point this season. Maybe against Santana.

What I think is keeping this from being +200 for Boston is the fact that most people believe that when rivals meet, anything can happen. Therefore they pay less attention to the facts. I do not agree with this assumption - if rivals really played each other closer regardless of the matchup then we'd see evidence of clutch hitting.

As far as analysis, the Sox are projected to score about 950 runs this year, or 5.86 a game. Wells' ERA should be slightly under 5.00, call it 4.90. Johnson's should be around 3.20, and the Yanks will be lucky to hit 900 runs, or 5.5 a game. The Sox offense will get a nice boost from playing at Fenway, and should be right at the Yankees level on the road. Both offenses are well above average - so a 15% increase in ERA for both pitchers is likely, putting Wells at 5.64 and Johnson at 3.68. Including unearned runs, that's around .67 runs/inning for the Yanks and .44 runs/inning for the Sox. Both bullpens will be rested and strong - the Yanks should continue to hold the Sox to .44 R/inning while the Sox will improve to around the same mark. Assuming the starting pitchers go 6 innings and the bullpen 3, that's an average of 3.96 runs for the Red Sox and 5.32 runs for the Yankees.

These are just estimates - but they seem about right to me. For one the total runs comes right near the over/under set at 8.5 and second the deficit is near the +1.5 you gave the Red Sox.

Anyways, using a pythagorean projection (with an exponent of 1.83, based on the formula 1.5*(Log(RPG both teams)) + .45, the Red Sox should win about 36.83% of the time. At +180, that would be a gain of 3.13% for betting on the Red Sox.

So by this analysis, a bet on the Sox would be good - but it's close. In fact, there is one factor that I neglected that might tip the scale a bit. The Sox will be facing a left handed pitcher, which isn't good for their lineup. David Ortiz and especially Trot Nixon are lefties who have big platoon splits. They do have righthanders too, but I think the gain is a little less than the loss. I believe last year's data supports this, but I'm not sure and I'm too lazy to look it up.

[mrbaseball]

All that season long projection stuff is fine and dandy. But I look at each game and each matchup on it's own merits.

Anyway I don't think this line is right. I think Johnson and company get way too much respect here making Boston a play.

The starters probably won't go real deep anyway and I like Boston pen better than Yankees. And for Johnson's dominance over Wells? I don't see it. Sure I don't think anyone disputes that Johnson is better than Wells and much more dominating. But in reality he isn't all that much more effective?

Last season in Wells 31 starts his team (SD) went 18-13. In Johnsons 35 starts his team (AZ) went 16-19. His team lost more than half of his starts! I realize a lot of them were despite great performances by Johnson. But both guys upgrade teams, Johnson probably more than Wells. But there is something to be said in Wells' team winning 58% of his starts and Johnson's team winning only 45% of his starts.

As far as closeness of a grudge match? Boston had the better team vs team last year going 11-8 vs NY in regular season and of course 4-3 in post. It just doesn't get closer than the post season performance and if ever there are 2 teams where you can expect an emotional grudgematch filled with pure hatred for the other side this is that matchup.

If they play this game a thousand times I see it coming much closer to 500/500 than 350/650. I'm on Boston both straight up and the +1.5 runline.