Theory of Poker

[Louie Landale]

Let say you will make a hopless river pay off: you ALWAYS call and he NEVER bluffs. On the turn you'll have to figure in the river cost when deciding to let him in. So if there are 6BB in the pot before your turn call) and he's a 12:1 underdog and you'll know he'll call one bet but not two, your over-all calculations are (when compared to raising him out): 12 times you win 1 (his turn call), 1 time you lose the pot (6) plus your call (1) and plus your river call (1). That's 12-8=4BB over 13 attempts. That means on average you win 1/3 of a BB by flat calling, hehehe, rather than raising him out. That's a lot.

That one extra hopeless river pay off doesn't change the equation much.

- Louie

[Al_Capone_Junior]

If your opponent is going to hit so infrequently that you'll make $$ even considering those times you pay him off when he hits, then it's still a +EV play to charge him too much to profitably draw against you, but not so much that he folds correctly.

al

[Al_Capone_Junior]

The degree of uncertainty you are describing is often worth a LOT on the river. Hence I agree with your point here.

al