Stud8 satellite FT

jon_1van · #1 09-08-2005, 11:56 PM

I didn't play this hand. But it was posted in the stud forum by Aicirt. What do you guys think of this hand?

Final table of the tourney. 5 players left, 3 make the WCOOP event, I have the chip lead. It had been 5 handed for quite some time. Most everyone was playing really tight because the stacks were really deep for the stakes because of this being a rebuy tournament.

Seat 2 easilly could be raising with junk in the hole. Every A door was being raised and was taking down the antes. So Im not totally sure if I give him credit for a hand or not.

Hows my line? Check/call the river?

Tournament - 7 Card Stud High-Low - Level XV (4,000/8,000), Ante 500, Bring-In 1,000 (hand converter)

Seat 1: 80,252
Seat 2: 47,128
Hero: 98,371
Seat 5: 53,926
Seat 8: 14,323

3rd Street - (0.63 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds

4th Street - (2.88 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises

5th Street - (3.44 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (5.44 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

River - (7.44 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 A 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: 9.44 BB

jon_1van · #2 09-09-2005, 07:48 AM

bump...got pushed way back by monster Offical threads

kitaristi0 · #3 09-09-2005, 08:38 AM

(Note: I've never played Stud8 in my life.)

If I've read your hand right, you have a pair of aces and no low on the river. I doubt that's going to be good, and he probably isn't folding for one more bet, so I slow down on the river.

You also have a ton of chips, so I'm not sure whether you want to get involved here with a mediocre hand.

gumpzilla · #4 09-09-2005, 10:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]

You also have a ton of chips, so I'm not sure whether you want to get involved here with a mediocre hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Five handed in stud/8 the starting hand isn't so bad. Great low draw, decent straight draws, maybe some flush opportunities. Against an aggressive opponent who is probably raising with less it should hold up pretty well.

I don't see how your friend can bet the river. He can't be called unless villain has either a low, in which case betting does nothing, or a better high, in which case betting loses money. The only thing that betting can accomplish that's any good here is scaring off a low hand. But you've been betting out all the way, and with your board showing he doesn't have to be maximally worried about a low. So I think the bet on the end is -EV. Other than that, I like the hand as a whole, though I might reraise on third rather than try and play out the hand.

EDIT: I'm an idiot and forgot that this is a satellite. Your friend shouldn't be playing this hand in those circumstances, since he's the big stack and probably 80-90% likely to be able to fold his way into the money. Too much risk for too little reward. If the bubble were still far away, my earlier comments apply.

Gomez22 · #5 09-09-2005, 10:26 AM

I'd like to give my reasoning here street by street.....

On 3rd, I think the call is fine. A decent low draw, 3 to a straight, and possible flush combo going here.... actually, I think it's an easy call, and, depending on the table structure, I MAY even re-raise from time to time

4th - 4 cards to a lock/lock situation, and what is obviuosly lock low, this is an easy raise, however, one of our 2's is dead, so we have 3 outs to the lock/lock situation.

5th - This is where it gets interesting for me. We still have a lock low draw, have picked up our BD FD, but villain also now has a possible low made. When out bet is called, I wouldn't like it very much at all. Villain cannot know that we have a lock low draw here, yet continues to call when we have a better board. At this point, I think I have to put im on a made low, paired hole cards, or possibly 2 pair at this time, although I would tend to think 2 pr raises at this point.

6th - We've paired our Ace, but there is another ace out, our opp. now has 3 hearts showing, and 3 low showing. The only thing that we beat now would be if our opp had a pair for his hole cards, or is chasing some draw this far into the hand. I think at this point, I check and call down, being happy to get to SD as cheaply as possible.

7th - Well, we have caught a decent card if our opp had a pair of aces, but no K, Q, J, or T under as well. In this case, I don't think betting does anything for us. We CANNOT win a low, we can only win a high. Villain HAS to have something to be calling this much, and better high hands (and SOME low) hands will raise us everytime on this river. I just can't see what betting here does for us. I make a reluctant check/call here, expecting to see at minimum, a low made on 5th, and a split pot. It IS possible for us to scoop with high here, but I don't think it's likely enough to warrant a bet on the end.

jon_1van · #6 09-09-2005, 10:27 AM

Did you consider that this is a satellite with 3 places getting paid?

Gomez22 · #7 09-09-2005, 10:31 AM

I guess I need to work on my reading comprehension (there goes 15 minutes of my life I'm not getting back)....

Fold to the raise, then

In a regular MTT situation, my comments apply.

Aicirt · #8 09-09-2005, 04:08 PM

The hand posted was my hand. Please keep in mind that even though I have the chip lead, it was a rebuy tournament so the stacks are still pretty deep for the stakes, so there is a lot of play left in this tournament. I know my river bet was wrong, but Im still not convinced that the rest of my play was wrong. Please convince me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

This was my reply to the comment that I shouldnt play this hand and I should just coast it out. Where am I going wrong with this logic?

I appreciate your honest feedback. However I disagree with some of your comments.

Villain could have ANY two cards in the hole. We might as well assume two random cards in the hole. Every A was raised and was taking antes...no reason to give credit for a hand yet. Granted, he could have a hand. Here are some trials from twodimes showing different possibilities.

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
4d 3d 5h 239816 250011 249968 21 246915 2946 65 0.607
Ac 9c Jd 132974 249968 250011 21 13110 5974 65 0.393

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
4d 3d 5h 163860 269575 230286 139 170144 40852 156 0.508
Ac 7c 2d 155422 230286 269575 139 175508 55955 156 0.492

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
4d 3d 5h 126916 145576 354388 36 199655 11335 117 0.393
Ac 7c Ad 233875 354388 145576 36 62648 23597 117 0.607

Like I said earlier, I believe the first case is much more likely than either of the second two. I cant really imagine laying this down here for a mere 4k when Im most likely ahead and if not even money.

345 needs a little help to be able to scoop. For 4k I can see 4th. If I improve then Im sitting great. If I dont and villain bets, I can lay the hand down. Heres what 4th street looks like with the trials I ran earlier.

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 4d 3d 5h 262785 272511 227469 20 361584 437 121 0.699
Ac 9c Jd 8h 63464 227469 272511 20 10565 23556 121 0.301

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 4d 3d 5h 202132 294563 205255 182 307561 20591 168 0.627
Ac 7c 2d 8h 75276 205255 294563 182 139555 206898 168 0.373

7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 4d 3d 5h 150619 163090 336896 14 343849 2523 181 0.526
Ac 7c Ad 8h 124538 336896 163090 14 47791 97070 181 0.474

I can now say with almost 100% certainty that I am ahead on 4th and I can start putting pressure on him.

[ QUOTE ]

The ONLY way to play this hand is to raise 3rd and hope our opponent folds. We should avoid a big pot AT ALL COSTS. And because our opponent should do the same thing (if he doesn't hold a super premium hand) we should give him an opportunity to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree completely. Calling here does a couple of things for me:

1) If he is indeed bluffing, it will give him a shot to bluff at me again on 4th.
2) Lets me see if I can improve cheaply on 4th. If I do improve, Im more than likely dominating the hand.

If I raise on 3rd and he does have a pair of aces then 3 bets are going in on 3rd and I am a dog. If I just call, then I see 4th cheaply and get 2 bets in on 4th. So this is what it looks like:

1) I raise and he has aces: 3 bets go in on 3rd and I am a dog.
2) I raise and he has junk: he maybe folds, maybe takes a card off.
3) I call and raise on 4th only if I improve. 3 bets go in by 4th street, vilain is close to pot committed, and I am ahead in the hand, even if he has aces. Im likely dominating this situation.

Aicirt

gumpzilla · #9 09-09-2005, 05:32 PM

The problem with your thinking is that it's entirely a cash game mentality. The real prize here is one of three seats, and consequently how good a play is needs to be gauged by how likely it is to move you closer to or further from getting one of those seats. You have the chip lead with five people remaining. If everybody had the same number of chips and skill, you'd be 60% to get a seat. With your chip lead and one serious dog, you're more like 85-90% to get a seat, a number that is a complete guess but is probably pretty accurate. Blowing a lot of chips on this hand can move you back down to 60-70% range, but winning can't really increase your chances all that much. So you're in a situation where you need to win very, very often to make the play worthwhile.