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#1
07-03-2005, 05:54 AM
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How much of a factor is luck, really?
First, let me preface this post by saying that I consider myself an expert poker player. I am very mathematically savvy, and understand the nuances of the game well. I have been playing for about 3 years, and just this May decided to venture into the internet realm seriously. Previously, I had destroyed home games around my town and was considered a player to be feared and reckoned with. My first experience online was a bad one, with a number of bad beats playing 5c/10c tables, because of my bankroll, or lack thereof. I shrugged this off like every other bad beat and bad run that I had in the past. Soon though, I began realizing that at the lower limit tables, luck plays an enormous factor in the games. I found myself constantly losing hands like JJ to J10 and J8. The pinnacle of this was when I had my AA cracked and then on the next hand, had a full house cracked by four of a kind. I began to doubt my ability, because these sorts of things had never happened to me before. As I mentioned earlier, I have a strong mathematical background, and tend to try and quantify things. This string of bad beats got me thinking if there was any way that a person could devise a mathematical way to determine the factor that luck plays in poker. Is there such a thing? Just something to think about...
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#2
07-03-2005, 06:03 AM
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Re: How much of a factor is luck, really?
Yes, there is a quantitative measure for the role luck plays. It's your standard deviation/100 hands which is measured by pokertracker, and which mason explains in I think gambling theory 1.
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#5
07-03-2005, 11:23 AM
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Re: How much of a factor is luck, really?
If you play 1 hand, luck = 100%
If you play 1000 hands a day for the rest of your life, luck < 1%
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#6
07-03-2005, 11:25 AM
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Re: How much of a factor is luck, really?
Over the next few hands - A lot.
Over the rest of your life - None.
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#8
07-03-2005, 12:33 PM
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Re: How much of a factor is luck, really?
Is there such a thing? Just something to think about...
I can't say that I believe in "luck", or better yet, there's no such thing. One person's good luck is another person's bad luck (i.e. your JJ vs. J8/JT example), and vice-versa. In this game, someone's always going to lose when someone wins. It's an even exchange. What brought about your question is your string of recent beats. Your subject question, I feel, will be a waste of your time to research. As others have reaffirmed, which you also know very well, that the stronger hands to win out in the long run. Statistically, it has to. Continue to work on your game, knowing that you are making the correct plays and your so-called "luck" will come into play. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#9
07-03-2005, 01:12 PM
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Re: How much of a factor is luck, really?
I knew this was gonna be fun after reading your first line:
[ QUOTE ] First, let me preface this post by saying that I consider myself an expert poker player. [/ QUOTE ] .... and you didn't disappoint. For more classics from the this "very mathematically savvy" high schooler , try here , here , and here. And pay attention guys, because remember... this guy is an expert. Btw, allintuit is which of the following?: (a) a troll (b) a moron (c) all the above. Personally, I'm torn between (b) and (c). Adam
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#10
07-03-2005, 01:27 PM
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Re: How much of a factor is luck, really?
D) All of the above, and my wife is hot
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