QQ 15-30

[mike l.]

live full table not good boring day time 15-30 game. i get QQ utg and raise, folded to button who 3 bets, i 4 bet, he calls, heads up. i dont know button at all.

flop is K73, i bet, he raises, i 3 bet, he calls.

turn is a 5, i bet, he calls.

river is an A. what should i do and why?

[Noo Yawk]

You don't know the button at all? Check/call and see his hand. Maybe he'll wuss out and check a better hand, maybe he'll show you a pair he couldn't let go of. All I know is I want to see an unknowns hand here.

[haakee]

I agree. It looks like he's got a K which he won't fold if you bet. But I'm definitely not throwing this hand away here for a river bet, so check-call.

[Michael Davis]

Maybe you can find the fold on the river that you missed on the flop.

-Michael

[ggbman]

If this is a flop 3 bet, i really want to start playing in your games.

[Victor]

well, since youre at the river i guess your last chance is to bet.

[mike l.]

"Maybe you can find the fold on the river that you missed on the flop."

his flop raise screamed defense. many players wait until the turn there with AA and AK. that's why i 3 bet. i felt pretty certain at that point my hand was best. i put him on JJ preflop and that's what i decided he had almost especially because he raised the flop. that's what i told surfdoc about the hand and that's what im sticking to. fwiw he told me that read's ridiculous and how could i put him on that hand. maybe it's subconcious or experience or whatever but that's what i was thinking stronly at the moment. when he called the turn (quickly) i started to change my mind a little and think he may have KQ/KJ/KT or something along those lines.

so if im putting him on a K, JJ, TT, 99, etc. why would i check the river? or bet the river? or call? or fold? what's the play? you dont know, do you?

[elindauer]

Hi Mike,

The play is to bet if you are going to call. He'll call with more hands than he'll bet. If you check, then fold.

Whether to bet or check depends on the player, but the only way your flop 3-bet can make much sense is if you now bet the river.

Good luck.
Eric

[mike l.]

"the only way your flop 3-bet can make much sense is if you now bet the river."

fine. please note though he is never ever ever folding a better hand here. no one ever does that ever. never. ever.

anyway that said, what about the idea that if i check the river he will check behind instinctually with a lot of kings he should bet (KQ/KJ/KT)?

[Michael Davis]

"so if im putting him on a K, JJ, TT, 99, etc. why would i check the river? or bet the river? or call? or fold? what's the play? you dont know, do you?"

No, but every time you describe a hand you sound like an "internet player" (ugh) because you're always suspicious that people are putting moves on you, overrepresenting and underrepresenting hands, and so on. When I play live, I never see my opponents do weird correct stuff like wait until the turn. They play the hand they have. Yes, some of them have misguided understandings of hand values and play their hands according to some weird rules encased in their neural network, but most live players are way too passive and horrible to raise JJ on a k-high flop after you capped preflop.

Anyways, if he's ACTUALLY strong enough to raise JJ here then I think you should just check-call down the whole way and let him bet his hand, because if he is strong enough to raise JJ here he should be strong enough to dump the hand when it meets further resistance, and that's what you give him by threebetting. So I think the threebet puts you in a position where most of the time you're getting called down only by better hands.

Now, you'll say that live players don't fold JJ there. Fine, they don't. But the guys that can't fold it don't raise on that flop.

-Michael