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#2
10-09-2005, 06:39 PM
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Wouldn\'t do it
I know this isn't what you were looking for, but I truly do not think that party is a good company to own. As time goes forward, the percentage of players on party who are good players will rise monotonically. Why? B/c winning players are MUCH more likely to stick around than are losing players. So as new players are lured in to make an initial deposit, it will become more and more likely as time goes on that they will lose their money and quit. Sure, there will be a certain percentage of gambling addicts who will continue to play all the way to their own bankruptcy, but I really don't believe that this is a large number of people. And so the number of people who play beyond their initial deposit will shrink. Additionally, since there will be fewer fish, people who are now able to beat the rake but not by a huge margin will start to lose money as the fish stop coming. With this in mind, I just don't see how there is any way that party can expect to grow, or even prevent itself from shrinking in the long run. I would happily short this stock if I didn't have 30k in college loans [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] It strikes me as blatantly overpriced with regard to its long term prospects.
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#3
10-09-2005, 11:18 PM
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Re: Wouldn\'t do it
"As time goes forward, the percentage of players on party who are good players will rise monotonically."
ahahahhahahahhaha wow. speechless. Zee, fwiw I would pm Paluka. Will
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#4
10-09-2005, 11:20 PM
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Re: Wouldn\'t do it
[ QUOTE ]
"As time goes forward, the percentage of players on party who are good players will rise monotonically." ahahahhahahahhaha wow. speechless. Zee, fwiw I would pm Paluka. Will [/ QUOTE ] I assure you I have no idea how to buy party stock. I don't even have a personal investment account.
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#5
10-09-2005, 11:25 PM
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Re: Wouldn\'t do it
You don't think this is true? The weaker players will keep feeding in at the bottom, but they will be less likely to stick around. As a result, the avg player skill level will increase.
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#6
10-10-2005, 12:09 AM
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Re: Wouldn\'t do it
I would stay away from regulated companies...
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#7
10-10-2005, 01:35 AM
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Re: Wouldn\'t do it
[ QUOTE ]
I would stay away from regulated companies... [/ QUOTE ] Worse than being a regulated company is being unregulated with future possibility of being regulated on unkown terms. Online poker is a real grey zone in the legal sense, and that makes them inherently risky. Besides other operational risks such as less players etc. I'd only buy this if price were really depressed wich is not the case here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#8
10-10-2005, 04:12 AM
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Re: Wouldn\'t do it
The fact that everybody from these forums and every other incredibly high volume player that has been playing on the skins is going back to party within the next week means that in the next quarter party's revenues have to explode higher.
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#9
10-11-2005, 08:22 AM
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Re: Wouldn\'t do it
[ QUOTE ]
I know this isn't what you were looking for, but I truly do not think that party is a good company to own. As time goes forward, the percentage of players on party who are good players will rise monotonically. Why? B/c winning players are MUCH more likely to stick around than are losing players. So as new players are lured in to make an initial deposit, it will become more and more likely as time goes on that they will lose their money and quit. Sure, there will be a certain percentage of gambling addicts who will continue to play all the way to their own bankruptcy, but I really don't believe that this is a large number of people. And so the number of people who play beyond their initial deposit will shrink. Additionally, since there will be fewer fish, people who are now able to beat the rake but not by a huge margin will start to lose money as the fish stop coming. [/ QUOTE ] Funny. I guess Vegas is next.
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#10
10-11-2005, 08:29 AM
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Re: Wouldn\'t do it
Yes, vegas and online poker are soooo similiar. Why do you think vegas is loaded with strip clubs and amusement parks and extravagent shows? Not to mention the fact that it's a heck of a lot easier to go to an atm to get grab more cash on your visit to the casino than it is to transfer money from your bank account/internet payment account to an online poker site. Party poker's attrition rate is rising, look at their releases. They try to spin it away as jsut a result of them getting more players, but I don't buy it. That said, I wouldn't doubt that the stock may rebound a bit on the next set of earnings.
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