Post flop play #2

[adanthar]

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EDIT: Also, I think you do a great job here in determining what the Villain has, but perhaps not so great a job disguising your own holding. After your raise what does villain put you on? (if he even thinks about it) If you did have the ace and put villain squarely on a lower PP would you raise here or try to milk him for more on the turn? Regardless of what you would do, what would the typical opponent do (from Villain's perspective, assuming he has no reads on you)

Anyway, well played. I just think that your raise defines your hand more than Villain's flop lead (which could have been a big ace trying to extract the max from a weaker ace and not fearing the potential OESD)

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As little as a couple of months ago, though, if I, a moderate to good a player and a $33/55 quad tabler, raised in this spot, my typical hand was AQs or better. I could certainly play AK that way.

Of course, the other part of this is that if you have JJ (and gave away your hand that badly) you can't possibly call the raise even if the chance of 88 is as high as 65%. Do you see why?

[swarm]

Hmmm... I don't like this play at all.

1st off on the pre-flop:

The only way I play this hand pre-flop for an $80 raise is if I am on the button or in the blinds and there are at 2 callers. Then I will play for set value only because of implied odds. Don't hit my set i'm folding. With your call way to great of chance for a re-raise with 5 players remaining.

The actual play itself. If i'm heads up with a caller with AK (likely holding with opening 80 raise) and I hit my A in early position with this flop I am going to make a bet very close to what villan made. I never want to give a true free card for obvious reasons and check-raising is just plain obvious. I'm not going to fear a straight draw heads up. So I want to make a bet that will induce either probe raises by mid pairs such as JJ - QQ re-raise or a lower kicked A re-raise.

At the 33 level and above I expect much tricker plays than open blasting of non-flush drawed flops with AK. Hell I may even play this way with AK on a 2flush flop HU.

I think you got lucky with this play... More times than not you are going to be out 280 chips 5 hands into a SNG.

[curtains]

Of course you can call the raise if the chance of 88 is 65%! This is especially true if the other 35% doesnt mean you have an ace.

If there really is a 65% chance the opponent has 88, it's clear you should again reraise. I'm not really sure what the point was there... (Of course it's nearly impossible to know that your opponent will have 88 65% of the time)

[adanthar]

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If there really is a 65% chance the opponent has 88, it's clear you should again reraise. I'm not really sure what the point was there... (Of course it's nearly impossible to know that your opponent will have 88 65% of the time)

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If you reraise or call, you get 0 chips from 88 and lose your stack from an ace. (Whether I have 88 or AK there, I check behind on the turn. Enjoy figuring out what to do on the river after you check and I push; if you bet anything substantial you are bleeding a ton of chips.) See the problem?

[curtains]

I don't have to reraise allin.

[adanthar]

Even min 3 betting on that flop is 240 chips. At that point you've basically lost the SNG or at least crippled yourself past easy recovery 1 in 3 times.

I can see your point but I'd much rather let it go in the first place, even with a high chance of bluffing (but you're right about 65% - 50% is still not enough, though.)