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#1
09-20-2005, 03:21 PM
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Trusting your read
Couldnt get the converter to work so Ill try to type it how it happened.
Party 3/6 9 players Hero is CO with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG limps, 2 more limpers, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG reraises, all call. 5 players, 15.5SB FLOP A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] All players check 5 players, 7.75BB Turn 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG bets, 2 calls, Hero folds, BB folds. Heres my thinking. UTG is a 14/7/4.2 over 3600 hands.I look at my notes on UTG and all I have on him is this: ALWAYS limp reraises AA. ALWAYS checks flop when he is PFR and hits a set. I dont really remember making these notes but when I have ALWAYS in caps it usually means that Ive seen this play made over and over by the player. So I folded my hand and congratulated myself on folding a hand that anyone else at the table would have lost a lot of money on. The next card off is the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I kick myself in the ass. The river is capped 2 way and UTG shows A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Other player shows K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. The play turned out to be worst case scenario but I was drawing at one out. I like the fold still even though I would have taken down a monster. When discussing the hand with a friend later on we disagreed on the play. Figured Id get as second(third and fourth) opinion. Anyone else able to make this fold?? 
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#2
09-20-2005, 03:27 PM
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Re: Trusting your read
I dont even know what to say but I understand.
At a NL tournament the other day I (UTG+1) tossed TT out the door when the player to my right (UTG) looked at his cards, hands shaking picked up a stack of chips to raise then stopped dropped some and said call. UTG+2 reraised all in all fold and UTG says calmy "call" and flips over AA. And he was a good player. Sometimes you just know no matter how the cards look. TJ Cloutier says that there will be times like this when your instincts and observations are 95% sure but math says otherwise. Well the instincts are right.
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#3
09-20-2005, 03:34 PM
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Re: Trusting your read
[ QUOTE ]
TJ Cloutier says that there will be times like this when your instincts and observations are 95% sure but math says otherwise. Well the instincts are right. [/ QUOTE ] TJ Coultiers instincts are right, my insincts sucks! Unfortunately so does my math... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#4
09-20-2005, 03:54 PM
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Re: Trusting your read
[ QUOTE ]
Couldnt get the converter to work so Ill try to type it how it happened. Party 3/6 9 players Hero is CO with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG limps, 2 more limpers, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG reraises, all call. 5 players, 15.5SB FLOP A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] All players check 5 players, 7.75BB Turn 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG bets, 2 calls, Hero folds, BB folds. Heres my thinking. UTG is a 14/7/4.2 over 3600 hands.I look at my notes on UTG and all I have on him is this: ALWAYS limp reraises AA. ALWAYS checks flop when he is PFR and hits a set. I dont really remember making these notes but when I have ALWAYS in caps it usually means that Ive seen this play made over and over by the player. So I folded my hand and congratulated myself on folding a hand that anyone else at the table would have lost a lot of money on. The next card off is the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I kick myself in the ass. The river is capped 2 way and UTG shows A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Other player shows K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. The play turned out to be worst case scenario but I was drawing at one out. I like the fold still even though I would have taken down a monster. When discussing the hand with a friend later on we disagreed on the play. Figured Id get as second(third and fourth) opinion. Anyone else able to make this fold?? [/ QUOTE ] I can understand not 'raising' here, but folding 3rd set? That's not going to happen for me.
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#5
09-20-2005, 04:07 PM
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Re: Trusting your read
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone else able to make this fold?? [/ QUOTE ] Nope. Never. [ QUOTE ] Heres my thinking. UTG is a 14/7/4.2 over 3600 hands.I look at my notes on UTG and all I have on him is this: ALWAYS limp reraises AA. ALWAYS checks flop when he is PFR and hits a set. I dont really remember making these notes but when I have ALWAYS in caps it usually means that Ive seen this play made over and over by the player. [/ QUOTE ] So lets do the math. Over 3600 hands, villian will have AA on average about 16 times. A large portion of those times he won't show down AA so you won't know he has it. A large portion of the remaining times he won't get the opportunity to LRR because it'll already be raised or because no one will raise it behind him. Furthermore, you can't possibly know he always LRR's with AA because he may well have raised it and won the hand without a SD so you didn't know he raised AA. Furtherfurthermore, your notes don't specify whether he LRRs with KK or not (which he may well have checked on the flop but then bet when no one bet at the A). Sorry, but there's no way your notes could give me enough confidence to fold 2nd set to a single bet here. And it looks to me like you're using the results to give yourself positive feedback from an absolutely awful play.
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#6
09-20-2005, 04:09 PM
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Re: Trusting your read
Before I read the results or your reads, I knew exactly what was going through your head, and I didn't think your laydown was bad. There's good evidence that you are behind here.
EDIT: A limp-reraise followed immediately by a flop check easily indicates a monster flop majority of the time. Unless you have evidence/notes that this player is weak-tight, I don't think KK or even QQ are reasonable holdings. After that, I might as well say that I don't like your preflop raise. Unless you can seriously expect SB and BB to call this, then I think you are better off playing for set value than for pair value.
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#7
09-20-2005, 04:18 PM
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Re: Trusting your read
[ QUOTE ]
And it looks to me like you're using the results to give yourself positive feedback from an absolutely awful play. [/ QUOTE ]How is it positive feedback if the play didnt work out. I would have make quad 9s.
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#8
09-20-2005, 04:38 PM
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Re: Trusting your read
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] And it looks to me like you're using the results to give yourself positive feedback from an absolutely awful play. [/ QUOTE ]How is it positive feedback if the play didnt work out. I would have make quad 9s. [/ QUOTE ] He means positive feedback from the forum, not positive results. I like the play but since I play mostly live I don't think I could (1) have that good a read on a player and (2) the balls to follow what that read tells me. In an NL game it is far easier to trust that read when faced with a big bet.
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#10
09-20-2005, 04:51 PM
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Re: Trusting your read
[ QUOTE ]
How is it positive feedback if the play didnt work out. I would have make quad 9s. [/ QUOTE ] If you knew for a fact your opponent had AA, then your laydown on the turn was correct. I think you're justifying your laydown based on the results - villian showed AA. But, I wonder if you would have posted this hand had villian shown, say, AK or KK. It's always cool to make a ballsy play and find out your highly speculative read was, in fact, right. But using notes based on most likely 3 or 4 hands to make huge laydowns has to be one of the biggest -EV habits you can possibly fall into.
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