downswing, normal??

[TemetNosce]

150 big bet downswings are normal. Doesn't matter how great a player one is. In fact, downswings greater than 150 big bets are possible for the best of players.

If you feel at all rattled by this, take a couple of days off. Have several beers, watch some movies, hang out with friends, etc. Just do something fun outside of poker. You'll be glad you did.

[Petomane]

If a downswing of 150BB is abnormal, why would you need 600BB for your bankroll?

[Tk79]

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If a downswing of 150BB is abnormal, why would you need 600BB for your bankroll?

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Thats a really good point. I guess I never thought of it that way. I have a canoe trip planned for this weekend so that should provide a good break. I dont like not working for an entire week but fortunately i set aside 6 months worth of bills and a large enough bankroll to handle these things. That means that the money lost from not playing shouldnt hurt much and a break will probably be nice.

Thanks guys. I guess I knew this wasnt all that abnormal but it feels a bit different when it happens to you. Like we all know smoking causes cancer but its still a shock when the doc tells you you have it.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

First 150k hands of online poker +1.9BB/100.

Last 40k hands, -.7BB/100

[Rudbaeck]

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I figured since its recomended that you play with a 300bb bankroll

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It isn't. Well, it is, by innumerate idiots, of whom many seem to be poker authors.

It's recommended that a proven winner start with 300BB and reinvests every single won cent in his bankroll until it's bloated like a blue whale on stereoids.

The risk of ruin of 0.5% or so risk of ruin connected with a 300BB doesn't mean you only stand a 1-in-200 of ever suffering a 300BB downswing. It means you are about 1-in-200 of immediately suffering a 300BB downswing.

Don't worry, you'll have your share of 300BB downswings. If you play enough hands you'll probably even get to taste the sweet juice of a 500BB downswing. (Pulling numbers out of my ass I'd say this happens every few hundred thousand and every few million hands respectively, for a major winner.)

You'll get to spend 25k hands in the red.

150BB in two days is nothing to worry about. If anything at all is abnormal about your story it's the smooth sailing you've had up until now. Usually the poker seas are choppier.

[Uglyowl]

NOTE: I get to bitch and not get to flamed for it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] WOOHOO. Some people may jump on you for the post, but I think it is legit and the toughest hurdle to overcome.

When you are pretty card dead and miss your flush draws in huge pots it is amazing how quick things can go down.
hill.

Also nothing you can really do when your 2pair run into sets, straights run into flushes, and AQ run into AK and the board sucks you in. Those days happen, just have to learn to deal with it, they happen unfortunately, it does suck though.

Ditto. I just donked away 90BB today... not very fun at all.

Just a shitty day in life in general for me.

Hang in there, this was my worst day ever I think, but I have been on the winning side much more so I guess it just comes with the territory.

[uuDevil]

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150 BB downswings do happen. It looks like your bankroll is big enough to handle one, whether it is the cards or you i dont know. Do you know how many total hands you have played and what your winrate is over those hands?


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132391 hands winning at 1.84bb/100.

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You don't give your standard deviation, but assuming it is a typical 15 BB/100 hands, and that 1.84 BB/100 is your true win rate, and that poker results are normally distributed, and that I did the math correctly*, a 150 BB downswing or worse will occur about 0.78% of the time over a sample of 3500 hands. That's about 0.30 times on average over 132,000 hands. Not unlikely.



*No guarantee of this whatsoever. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Tk79]

SD = 13.4332 BB/100

[uuDevil]

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SD = 13.4332 BB/100

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Is this over 132,000 hands or just the 3,500? (I ask because it seems a little low and that could be consistent with running bad.) If the former, you'd only expect a -150 BB or worse result .034% of the time in a 3500 hand sample. You'd expect it about .13 times on average in 132,000 hands. Still not an unlikely event.

However, the distribution of poker results is not really normal. I think that the true distribution is such that we see more big streaks than we would if it was normal. Some day I'll extract some data from Pokertracker and see what the distribution actually looks like. (I'm sure someone somewhere has already done that, but I haven't seen it.)

[chunk]

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First 150k hands of online poker +1.9BB/100.

Last 40k hands, -.7BB/100

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please post this daily, and PM it to me when Im down huge over 500-1000 hands.