Would you call or fold?

[Guernica4000]

I need some help with this situation.

Playing last night in the PP $20 NL tourney with 2,000 players. I have 9,500 chips with 25 players left. I have made the money ($190) and the next step is top 20 for ($280).
I post the bb for $5,000 chips. A player in early position makes it $40,000 to go and he is called by the button who goes all-in for his remaining $38,000 chips. I have 10 4 of clubs.

My question is: Do I fold and play for 20th since I can afford both blinds and it is unlikely I can win the tourney with the chip leader having almost 300,000 chips or do I call and risk getting knock out 25th?

I have no read on any of the players since I just moved to the table.

Any help with this particular situation or any advice for the future would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Guernica

[bestcellar]

how many other shortstacks are there that will be knocked out in the next eight hands? If there aren't at least 3 others with similar stacks, I would go ahead and hope I get lucky here while you've got a chance to get 30k. Even if you get a better hand, you're going to be crippled in terms of protecting it in any way with less than the bb.

[locutus2002]

I think its an easy call with any two.

One way to look at this is EV of the tournament.
Lets say you you fold and 1/2 the time you don't bust out < 20th (generous I'd say). Your EV for folding is 1/2 X $90 ($280-$190) = $45.
Lets say you call and if you win 3/4 of the time you will finish 20th-11th EV(after winning) $90 x 3/4 = $67.50, and 1/4 of the time you will make the final table with your new stack of T31,000 EV (after winning) ~$2,000 x 1/4 = $500.


Because the money is so deep at the final table you can call with any two. The EV will be about the same, but the variance is great for the call.

Your T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ranges from about 6:1 to 11:1 depending on your opponents holdings, and the pot laying you ~6:1.

I would look at it as giving up the $45EV for folding, to make the final table some small fraction of the time.

[Guernica4000]

Thank for the advice locutus. In your EV calculation are you taking into consideration that if I fold I would still be able to post the small blind and possibly get better cards to double or triple up?

[locutus2002]

I skipped all that stuff in the crude approximation.
I don't think its realistic to make the final table after folding but anything is possible. Its even possible that your T4 is the best hand. You could at best add another EV $15 for your chance of making the final table when you fold.

This situation will occur frequently if you play alot, and you will get out of the toilet 1/6 times or so. I can get excited about getting out of the toilet with T31,000. If you fold you will only get out of the toilet with ~T12,000 assuming you auto call the next hand, because you will be getting pot odds of 6:1.

Having said this I love the T4 holding because it is unlikely that you are dominated (no one has a T or a 4), and they are suited. My gut says you are more on the 6:1 than the 11:1 side.

[willie]

i think i call here

you fold you have basically no chance of coming back. maybe you get real lucky and flop trips or some flush garbage here.

gamble to rebuild here and hope for the best.