Overpair vs mucho turn AG. - Page 2

McGahee · #11 12-15-2005, 12:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It most definitely does change things.

When c/r on the the turn I put him on 4 types of hands.

1. TPGK
2. Pair +flush
3. Two pair
4. Straight/flush combo

I 3bet because I'm ahead of 3/4. When I'm capped, I think 3 is more likely but have 5 outs even against that.

On the river, I only beat AQ and KQ. Even QJ just jumped in front.

The river is a fold, but like I said, I doubt I'm good enought to make it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The collective chances of two pair + set + bluff + TP are SO much more likely than any drawing hands or made/draw combos. There is absolutely no chance that he's playing a straight or flush draw often enough to tip the river from a call to a fold. None.

Mathieu · #12 12-15-2005, 12:38 AM

After more thinking, I like the more conservative line of just calling down after the turn check raise. I guess I tend to assess unknowns as more aggressive then what they really are.

I feel the check raise represents more strength than just a raise as villain might have donked had he improved to top pair, so I like just calling down the check raise.

I would be more inclined to 3 bet if I was OOP, because then villain's raise looks more like a paired Q.

Is my reasoning correct?

#13 12-15-2005, 01:17 AM

I had a very similar hand yesterday. I played it the same way as you but I really hated being capped on the turn. Villains hand at showdown shocked me as well.

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, Hero calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Results in white below: 
SB has Kh Kd (full house, kings full of fives).
Hero has Ac Ah (two pair, aces and fives).
Outcome: SB wins 13.50 BB.

J. Stew · #14 12-15-2005, 01:25 AM

I just call the 3bet against unknown, call the river and expect to lose to a crappy two pair before I lose to a flush or straight.

#15 12-15-2005, 02:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]

The collective chances of two pair + set + bluff + TP are SO much more likely than any drawing hands or made/draw combos. There is absolutely no chance that he's playing a straight or flush draw often enough to tip the river from a call to a fold. None.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tried very hard but still have no idea what you are trying to say here.

Let me just say this:

If you think you have the best hand less than 30% after the turn c/r(which it seems you do), you should fold. You are only getting 7:2 on a call down.

@bsolute_luck · #16 12-15-2005, 08:52 AM

turn is an easy 3-bet. just sux it got capped. common people! a lone Queen might do this! i play it the same.

McGahee · #17 12-15-2005, 09:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The collective chances of two pair + set + bluff + TP are SO much more likely than any drawing hands or made/draw combos. There is absolutely no chance that he's playing a straight or flush draw often enough to tip the river from a call to a fold. None.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tried very hard but still have no idea what you are trying to say here.

Let me just say this:

If you think you have the best hand less than 30% after the turn c/r(which it seems you do), you should fold. You are only getting 7:2 on a call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to say that the river doesn't complete a draw anywhere near often enough to push the river to a fold if you were planning on calling a brick.
And no, the turn is not a 'raise or fold' situation.

#18 12-15-2005, 01:26 PM

Grunch

Based on that action I'd expect to see two pair or a set. My limited experience has been that some players like to wait for the big bet before popping you with a c/r and a strong hand. I'd discout QQ or flush draw but think he maybe has Q9 or a set of 9's or 6's based on his preflop call. Without a read on the player, I would probably turn 3-bet it too, when he caps I go into c/c mode. It might be a spew, but I want to know what he played so I can take some notes.

Coolidge · #19 12-15-2005, 06:06 PM

Well, Villian turned over KTo, for the straight. Isn't this a terrible line for Villian? Cap the turn with a gut shot? This cannot be +EV. Am I missing something here?

shant · #20 12-15-2005, 06:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, Villian turned over KTo, for the straight. Isn't this a terrible line for Villian? Cap the turn with a gut shot? This cannot be +EV. Am I missing something here?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, he played horribly. Make a note of what he is capable of and move on.