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#11
12-08-2005, 01:23 PM
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Re: KK vs a TAG
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Don't check the turn here. [/ QUOTE ] jd - Do you suggest bet/fold or bet/call on the turn? Why? [/ QUOTE ] I woudl bet/call here. There is no reason to think villain has a Jack (he would have called the 3-bet on the flop and raised a turn bet by hero). More likely a flush draw trying to get a cheap turn in position/medium PP (10's?) charging overcards. I would put villain on AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if hero did'nt have the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in his hands. AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if villain didn't fold to the river bet. As it stands, it seems like villain 3 bet pre-flop with AT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (not quite the TAG he is made out to be...) or maybe pocket 8's/9's/10's. If villain calls the 3 bet on flop and then raises me on turn I may consider folding this, but would prolly still see showdown (c/c) - and I expect to see AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or AJ - so I'm winning half of these. 
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#12
12-08-2005, 01:25 PM
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Re: KK vs a TAG
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Don't check the turn here. [/ QUOTE ] jd - Do you suggest bet/fold or bet/call on the turn? Why? [/ QUOTE ] I woudl bet/call here. There is no reason to think villain has a Jack (he would have called the 3-bet on the flop and raised a turn bet by hero). More likely a flush draw trying to get a cheap turn in position/medium PP (10's?) charging overcards. I would put villain on AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if hero did'nt have the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in his hands. AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if villain didn't fold to the river bet. As it stands, it seems like villain 3 bet pre-flop with AT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (not quite the TAG he is made out to be...) or maybe pocket 8's/9's/10's. If villain calls the 3 bet on flop and then raises me on turn I may consider folding this, but would prolly still see showdown (c/c) - and I expect to see AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or AJ - so I'm winning half of these. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks, just wanted to see what your reasoning was!
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#13
12-08-2005, 01:27 PM
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Re: KK vs a TAG
[ QUOTE ]
There is no reason to think villain has a Jack [/ QUOTE ] well i think QQ, KK, AA also make up a good bit of his range seeing how he played it.
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#14
12-08-2005, 01:32 PM
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Re: KK vs a TAG
Yes. Those hands are definitly possible. But YOU have KK, so that makes KK are pretty slim holding. And he has other hands here more often than QQ/AA. With no ace on board and 2 to the flush, he is going to have to show me AA at some point - I am not giving a flop capper (in position) a free draw at a flush.
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#15
12-08-2005, 01:32 PM
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Re: KK vs a TAG
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Don't check the turn here. [/ QUOTE ] jd - Do you suggest bet/fold or bet/call on the turn? Why? [/ QUOTE ] I woudl bet/call here. There is no reason to think villain has a Jack (he would have called the 3-bet on the flop and raised a turn bet by hero). More likely a flush draw trying to get a cheap turn in position/medium PP (10's?) charging overcards. I would put villain on AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if hero did'nt have the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in his hands. AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if villain didn't fold to the river bet. As it stands, it seems like villain 3 bet pre-flop with AT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (not quite the TAG he is made out to be...) or maybe pocket 8's/9's/10's. If villain calls the 3 bet on flop and then raises me on turn I may consider folding this, but would prolly still see showdown (c/c) - and I expect to see AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or AJ - so I'm winning half of these. [/ QUOTE ] I really think putting in 3BB between the turn and river is too much unless you have a retardedly crazy read on villain. You capped preflop, 3-bet the flop, and you think he's raising ATc or AQc when you lead the turn? Rob
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#16
12-08-2005, 01:35 PM
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Re: KK vs a TAG
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Don't check the turn here. [/ QUOTE ] jd - Do you suggest bet/fold or bet/call on the turn? Why? [/ QUOTE ] I woudl bet/call here. There is no reason to think villain has a Jack (he would have called the 3-bet on the flop and raised a turn bet by hero). More likely a flush draw trying to get a cheap turn in position/medium PP (10's?) charging overcards. I would put villain on AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if hero did'nt have the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in his hands. AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] if villain didn't fold to the river bet. As it stands, it seems like villain 3 bet pre-flop with AT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (not quite the TAG he is made out to be...) or maybe pocket 8's/9's/10's. If villain calls the 3 bet on flop and then raises me on turn I may consider folding this, but would prolly still see showdown (c/c) - and I expect to see AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or AJ - so I'm winning half of these. [/ QUOTE ] I really think putting in 3BB between the turn and river is too much unless you have a retardedly crazy read on villain. You capped preflop, 3-bet the flop, and you think he's raising ATc or AQc when you lead the turn? Rob [/ QUOTE ] I think he is raising AQc or AJ on the turn. Not ATc (that slows down FOR SURE).
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#17
12-08-2005, 01:43 PM
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Re: KK vs a TAG
Well played.
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#18
12-08-2005, 01:46 PM
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Re: KK vs a TAG
I'm not even sure this guy would 3 bet me pf with ATs.
point is on the turn there are more combos considering his range that i am behind than those that i am ahead of.
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#19
12-08-2005, 01:49 PM
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Re: KK vs a TAG
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not even sure this guy would 3 bet me pf with ATs. point is on the turn there are more combos considering his range that i am behind than those that i am ahead of. [/ QUOTE ] Ding ding ding ding.
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#20
12-08-2005, 02:01 PM
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Re: KK vs a TAG
This is one where you should have definitely ended the action on the turn card. The responses are going to be skewed because it went c/c, b/f.
Anyway, here's my analysis: His hand range is narrow after the flop action: AA, KK, QQ, AQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and maybe 1010. There are the following hand combinations: AA-6 KK-1 QQ-3 AQ:clubs:-1 1010-6 discount this because of flop aggression to about 3, IMO. We are ahead of 4 (7 at most), behind 9 and chop 1. I'd bet the turn and if he raises, I can eliminate 10-10 for sure. That leaves 1 hand we beat (AQ:clubs  , 9 we don't and 1 chop. So, from an EV perspective: 1/11 * 11.75 = 1.07 1/11 * 5.375 = .49 9/11 * -2 = -1.63 However, when we are ahead of AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], he has still has 13 outs (3 aces, 2 queens, 8 clubs). Therefore: (1.07)x(31/44) = 0.75 bb, our EV if we are ahead and stay ahead. True, sometimes we catch a K when we are behind and win the pot, but it won't happen often enough to turn this isn't a profitable calldown. I'd bet the turn and fold to a raise. I'm new at working the math, so if I'm wrong somewhere, please correct me.
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