NBA moneyline questions (and another)

[ohnonotthat]

No opinion on these two specific games but I have always preferred MLs to spreads in all sports.

Is it a coincidence that the only sport to do big $-line business is the books might well opt not to book if they had the option ?

As to your specific system however, if I understood you it souned like you were advocating betting favs laying small prices at home.

I have always thought (not sure whether past results bear this out) laying 180 instead of 3.5 or 250 instead of 5 was a recipe for disaster. There just aren't that many games where the favorite wins but fails to cover a small spread - this isn't football.

A 5 point favorite in BB is typically -220 or thereabouts on the ML; I have no stats to back this up but the math says that the ML wager is the better choice if the chance of a win-no-cover is 18% or greater. (Note: I am not saying to lay the 5; whether the team is a good bet or not, the necessity of an 18% disparity still applies).

5 point favs win but don't cover more than 1/6 of the time ?

Doesn't seem likely.

I'd love to hear from someone with stats to support or impeach this assumption.

[DougOzzzz]

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I'd love to hear from someone with stats to support or impeach this assumption.

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I have the equivalent moneyline on -5 -110 around -215 in the NBA.

I get 13.46% of games that the fave wins but doesn't cover, and an additional 4.63% that the favorite wins but pushes ATS.

[ohnonotthat]

Hmm -

Are you saying that there is a constant relationship between an "X" point fav. and that same team on the ML ?

If you are I strongly disagree.

While there are no Denver Nuggets circa-early 1980s or Detroit Pistons of the later 80s around today there are strong and weak defenses, strong and weak offenses, those that excel on both and those that are weak at both.

To suggest that a 5 point favorite will always be (or should I say SHOULD always be) a particular figure on the ML is wrong - very wrong.

Granted, there will never be a huge difference; you'll never see a -5,-150 nor will you ever see a -5, -300 but sportsbetting is about finding razor thin edges and pouncing.

This is especially true for basketball which is about matchups more than it is about absolute superiority.

Rock-paper-scissors is the motto of the NBA bettor.

The reason 'books charge 10 cents for ALL half points has nothing to do with all halves being equal. 10 cents for ANY 1/2 point is highway robbery so why do they care whether they are getting you to make an horrendous bet or a bet that is simply pretty bad.

While BB, unlike football, has no "hot numbers" there is still a non-linear relationship between MLs and point-spreads as well as no constant relationship involving two matchups where the fav in both just happens to be -"X".

Pinnacle's lines reflect this; they by charge more for some halves than others.

They also charge less than 10 cents for most halves but their "adjustments" are also bad bets. They're just not AS bad as the rest.

*

If I misunderstood you - i.e., if your conversion chart allows for this - my apologies.

[DougOzzzz]

wow... you asked for the stats and I gave them.

Personally, I think there is a small difference from game to game on what the proper ML should be given the same point spread. I don't think it is easily predictable though and for the most part just taking the results from past games at the previous spread should do fine for predicting the "correct" moneyline.

That wasn't the point of my post though. The point was that on average, teams that are -5 -110 in the NBA win the game about 2/3 of the time and thus, adding in the vig, -215 on the moneyline is roughly equivalent to -5 -110.

doug and "ohno..."

thanks for the help, much appreciated...

i've seen some good stuff on trends and types of bets that win in NBA, although i've learnt somewhat the hard way that once something has been a certain way for a long time, it can either reverse on its own or it gets priced into the market.

as you guys debated, i am also somewhat curious about whether a 5.5 point favorite should always be a reasonably similar moneyline... one sport i like the underdog moneyline is college football, 10 point spread is nothing and the moneyline payouts still seem very good. i could be wrong though about that. because i haven't played NFL moneyline much at all.

thanks again.