Call or fold? Is this a close decision?

[EnderW27]

Personally I think it is. It's a hand I played sometime last week that I've been thinking about.

MP1 open raises in a limit game. MP3 cold calls and it's folded to you in the BB with ATo. You call.

Flop is KsJ3s matching your A.

You check. MP1 checks. MP3 bets. What do you do?
Do the stakes matter? Does your read on your opponents matter? Or is this a pure math problem? Is this even close?

Right now you are getting 7-1 odds on your money. If you count your backdoor flush as 1.5 outs, and your gutshot as four more. I'd probably discount the ace to one out...you definitely have the odds to continue. But I would raise the flop to clean up some outs, plus you can take a free card on the turn if you want it. I don't even think this is a close decision.

[damaniac]

So do we have a bdflush draw, or regular? I assume bdoor, otherwise it really isn't close. If MP1 had bet I'd make the call. However, MP1 checking is awfully suspicious (or maybe he has AJ or TT or something). I probably call anway without a read, as I don't expect most players to raise then c/r, I'm assuming he missed the flop and doesn't want to pay 2 bets to see the turn.

I'd also fold preflop to an unknown open from MP1.

[EnderW27]

It is a backdoor. only two of the suit on the flop match your A.

[EnderW27]

Actually 7.5 counting the SB.

Yeah, I wasn't sure how much to count for my A outs nor how to figure the ~30-1 flush draw into the ~10 to 1 gutshot I figured to be clean.

[EnderW27]

One question I had on your post from this morning: I'm in the BB. I get how the raise could clear off some of my outs but, how will a check raise net me a free card on the turn? Whoever is still in will still be acting after me.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
Right now you are getting 7-1 odds on your money. If you count your backdoor flush as 1.5 outs, and your gutshot as four more. I'd probably discount the ace to one out...you definitely have the odds to continue. But I would raise the flop to clean up some outs, plus you can take a free card on the turn if you want it. I don't even think this is a close decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are at 6ish outs in a 7SB pot. We can't get a free card with a raise because we're OOP. There is only one player a raise could potentially knock out; cleaning up our A outs only helps on the occasions that open-raiser has AQ or AJ, that he would check that flop with either of those hands, and that he will fold them for a cold raise. The flop bettor could always reraise and the call was sketchy to begin with. We're investing 2SB to protect a draw* in a 7SB pot. Free cards aren't much of a consideration being that we're OOP.

You're right about one thing; it's not that close.


*Sometimes A-high is good, but considering this flop and the fact that it's a raised pot I'm not willing to make that assumption, OOP, possibly facing bets on every street.

[EnderW27]

So right now we have one poster saying I should definitely call and possibly raise.
One who says probably call though he would have folded pre-flop.
And one who says it's a pretty clear fold.

I find this amusing though all your answers have been interesting to think about.

Results to come in the next post

[EnderW27]

I figured I'm getting 7.5 to 1 on what I considered to be a 10 to 1 shot. In general I would fold this. But I thought 1) my Q outs were clean and I'd get paid off if I hit.
2) if nothing good came on the turn I could easily fold.
3) There's a good chance MP1 comes along making it 8.5 to 1, must closer.

All that was my thinking when I called. Now MP1 raised! This didn't bode well but MP3 called and now if my original call was close this was a no brainer. I'm getting the right odds to call, mistake though my original call might have been.

Turn puts a three flush on the board. I thought about betting out but I'm never getting a worse hand out here and I might get raised by MP1 knocking out MP3. I checked. Mp3 called. I called.

River: fourth club to the board giving me the nuts. I bet out. MP3 paid me off and Mp1 folded, cursing my family for seven generations for sticking around on my hand.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
3) There's a good chance MP1 comes along making it 8.5 to 1, must closer.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP1 should either bet or check/fold the flop, unless he's check-raising for variation. There is no hand that makes sense for him to check-call there.