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| View Poll Results: Where should Matt put the $500 chip? | |||
| Who cares, go F yourself. |
   
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29 | 16.38% |
| choices. |
  
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2 | 1.13% |
| many |
  
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1 | 0.56% |
| too |
  
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3 | 1.69% |
| I made |
  
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1 | 0.56% |
| Other? |
  
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4 | 2.26% |
| double 0 |
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13 | 7.34% |
| 3rd column |
|
4 | 2.26% |
| 2nd column |
|
7 | 3.95% |
| 1st column |
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1 | 0.56% |
| 3rd 12 |
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3 | 1.69% |
| 2nd 12 |
|
5 | 2.82% |
| 1st 12 |
|
3 | 1.69% |
| 19-36 |
|
2 | 1.13% |
| 1-18 |
|
2 | 1.13% |
| odd |
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3 | 1.69% |
| even |
|
3 | 1.69% |
| 36 |
|
0 | 0% |
| 35 |
|
0 | 0% |
| 34 |
|
0 | 0% |
| 33 |
|
2 | 1.13% |
| 32 |
|
2 | 1.13% |
| 31 |
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1 | 0.56% |
| 30 |
|
0 | 0% |
| 29 |
|
1 | 0.56% |
| 28 |
|
2 | 1.13% |
| 27 |
|
5 | 2.82% |
| 26 |
|
0 | 0% |
| 25 |
|
1 | 0.56% |
| 24 |
|
0 | 0% |
| 23 |
|
8 | 4.52% |
| 22 |
|
4 | 2.26% |
| 21 |
|
0 | 0% |
| 20 |
|
3 | 1.69% |
| 19 |
|
1 | 0.56% |
| 18 |
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4 | 2.26% |
| 17 |
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5 | 2.82% |
| 16 |
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1 | 0.56% |
| 15 |
|
0 | 0% |
| 14 |
|
2 | 1.13% |
| 13 |
|
11 | 6.21% |
| 12 |
|
5 | 2.82% |
| 11 |
|
3 | 1.69% |
| 10 |
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1 | 0.56% |
| 9 |
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1 | 0.56% |
| 8 |
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1 | 0.56% |
| 7 |
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1 | 0.56% |
| 6 |
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1 | 0.56% |
| 5 |
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1 | 0.56% |
| 4 |
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2 | 1.13% |
| 3 |
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3 | 1.69% |
| 2 |
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2 | 1.13% |
| 1 |
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0 | 0% |
| Black (pussy bet) |
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11 | 6.21% |
| Red (pussy bet) |
|
6 | 3.39% |
| Voters: 177. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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Thread Tools | Display Modes |
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#1
12-21-2005, 12:00 PM
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Poll, should I continue taking this shot?
First off, I don't want this to come off as a brag post. I am looking for advice from people who have taken shots at limits they are not necesarily bankrolled for.
I recently ran well in my regular games of 3/6 6max and 5/10 6max. I decided I'd take a 25BB shot at 10/20 6max. If I lost that 25BB, I check it off as a learning experience for moving up in the future. So far I'm 800 hands in and am up to 75BB for that level. I just ran some 'risk of ruin' calculations and came up with the following: Assuming a standard deviation of 16.5BB / 100, my risk of ruin (ruin = losing my 10/20 winnings and initial 25BB investment) for different hypothetical winrates are as follows: Winrate = 2.0, ROR = 33% Winrate = 1.5, ROR = 44% Winrate = 1.0, ROR = 58% I feel like I am probably between 1.0 and 1.5 BB / 100 winner in this game (if one can even estimate such a thing). How should I proceed from here? If I continue taking this shot, am I effectively flipping a coin for 75BB ($1,500)? When I look at it that way it makes me want to discontinue taking the shot. Perhaps I can remove my initial 25BB investment so that if I lose my winnings I will have gained 'free' experience at 10/20. What do you think? 
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