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  #1  
Old 12-20-2005, 11:21 PM
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Default Set of Kings (FTP 3/6)

3/6 at Full Tilt. Sorry for no converter, it doesnt support FT.

Hero is SB with KdKh.
MP1 is 20.5/8.09/1.63

Pre-Flop: 2 folds, UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Flop: 2h Ks 3s. Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: 3h. Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, Hero calls.

River: 2c. Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, Hero calls.

UTG+1 shows 2d2s and Hero has to buy a new keyboard because his curreny one is covered in puke.

Anyway I could have put this one down? I felt another set on the flop and the turn and river yelled quads, but I fell in love with my hand.

Edited by W. Deranged to fix flop action (that's the only way it makes sense.)
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  #2  
Old 12-20-2005, 11:47 PM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Default Re: Set of Kings (FTP 3/6)

The only question here is the river.

No one with those stats has a two pair hand here if those stats are close to correct. By the point of the turn, we can probably put our opponent on exactly 22 or 33. It's probably split like 70%/23%/7% between 22/33/weird crap.

Anyway, once you get screwed by the river, I honestly think that we have enough information to check-call the river. It sounds absurd, but there is just so little that villain can have here other than a pur bluff hand or a weird AA that means we need to check the river. If villain is jamming a big draw of some kind checking on the end isn't bad because it lets them bluff as they probably missed on the river and A high is probably at least as likely to bluff the end as it is to pay off.

So, as weird as it sounds, a river check-call is probably correct here. (!!!)


P.S. Only because the river actually ends up being interesting am I not treating this as a bad beat post... which it actually is. It just happens to be a somewhat valid exercise in hand-reading.
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  #3  
Old 12-21-2005, 12:00 AM
lozen lozen is offline
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Default Re: Set of Kings (FTP 3/6)

I think someone once said here you havent been playing enough hands until youve had your fullhouse beat by quads. Id bet it to the max.
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  #4  
Old 12-21-2005, 12:25 AM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Default Re: Set of Kings (FTP 3/6)

[ QUOTE ]
Id bet it to the max.

[/ QUOTE ]

What could villain have on the river that merits bet-three-betting?

Once the 2 hits the river, what percentage of the time do you think we are winning the hand?
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  #5  
Old 12-21-2005, 12:27 AM
Alex/Mugaaz Alex/Mugaaz is offline
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Default Re: Set of Kings (FTP 3/6)

I'm capping here 100/100. Only 1 time so far have I ever put a guy on quads with any real certainty and still didn't fold to his raise. He could have any 2, any 3, AA, etc.
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  #6  
Old 12-21-2005, 12:37 AM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Default Re: Set of Kings (FTP 3/6)

Think about it this way:

1. There is only one K in the deck so that's not that likely.

2. Villain at 1.7 agg. factor is too passive to take the turn to four bet's on a paired board with AA, probably.

3. Villain is not four-betting the flop with just a 2 or just a 3.




Villain is reasonable! 20/8/1.7 is going to be playing pretty straightforwardly. He's not cold-calling raises with lots of weird stuff. He's not taking the flop and turn to four bets with weird stuff.


As I said, on the turn, we take it to 4 bets because our equity even after that much action is probably about 75% or so.

On the river, the worst card has come, and I don't think we're winning even a majority of the time against a rational opponent. We shouldn't even bet, let alone raise, three-bet, or cap this river.
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  #7  
Old 12-21-2005, 12:50 AM
damaniac damaniac is offline
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Default Re: Set of Kings (FTP 3/6)

Would have been better if you hadn't included results, as this is going to bias responses. W Deranged seems right on. I would like to know how many hands this read is over.

I probably cap the river too in actual play, but sitting here looking at it, I think doing that is spewing a bit. It happens, but not often.
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  #8  
Old 12-21-2005, 12:53 AM
Alex/Mugaaz Alex/Mugaaz is offline
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Default Re: Set of Kings (FTP 3/6)

[ QUOTE ]
Think about it this way:

1. There is only one K in the deck so that's not that likely.

2. Villain at 1.7 agg. factor is too passive to take the turn to four bet's on a paired board with AA, probably.

3. Villain is not four-betting the flop with just a 2 or just a 3.




Villain is reasonable! 20/8/1.7 is going to be playing pretty straightforwardly. He's not cold-calling raises with lots of weird stuff. He's not taking the flop and turn to four bets with weird stuff.


As I said, on the turn, we take it to 4 bets because our equity even after that much action is probably about 75% or so.

On the river, the worst card has come, and I don't think we're winning even a majority of the time against a rational opponent. We shouldn't even bet, let alone raise, three-bet, or cap this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm missing something, but this hand history is completely messed up, so I'm not going to argue either way until it's clarified.
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  #9  
Old 12-21-2005, 01:38 AM
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Default Re: Set of Kings (FTP 3/6)

Im just curious as to how many times you cold call an utg raise with 22 or 33 deranged?
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  #10  
Old 12-21-2005, 03:47 AM
Spook Spook is offline
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Default Re: Set of Kings (FTP 3/6)

pikku, what range do you put the CC villian on? KQs? A3s? 77?

I think that is what W. Deranged is trying to get at with the hand reading. It is not likely, but is it more likely then CC with A3s?
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