|
|
#21
12-07-2005, 03:29 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Common problem with super-draws
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would lead for $10 and hope to get raised by a big overpair. [/ QUOTE ] Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot? [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] In the villain's place, would you call 250BBs with one pair? Sometimes pushing decreases your variance. [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] It's not 50-50. Not only is the OESFD a 54-46 favorite again KK or AA (averaging over the cases of a club or not), there is a significant amount of dead money after you get reraised on the flop. 
|
|
#22
12-07-2005, 03:37 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Common problem with super-draws
I haven't read any of this thread, but I will say this: The most common problem with superdraws is folding equity.. a lot of times Hero simply does not have it and ends up flipping a coin for a stack. This is not how to play your super draws. If a decent opponent has raised preflop and reraised your flop lead, you don't always have to jam. I know your OESFD looks very pretty, but it's still only a 3% favorite over Aces, which is rarely folding. If you willingly shove it in against Aces or any other hand with no FE, you might as well start calling all ins with small pairs and taking races.
Folding equity comes first.
|
|
#24
12-08-2005, 05:50 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Common problem with super-draws
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I would lead for $10 and hope to get raised by a big overpair. [/ QUOTE ] Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot? [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] In the villain's place, would you call 250BBs with one pair? Sometimes pushing decreases your variance. [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] It's not 50-50. Not only is the OESFD a 54-46 favorite again KK or AA (averaging over the cases of a club or not), there is a significant amount of dead money after you get reraised on the flop. [/ QUOTE ] These stacks are very deep, and you dont know what your FE is. If the action goes hero pot, villain pot raise, hero push, then if villain calls then you are AT BEST a small favourite over villain. The "dead" money is the $30 pot. This is not worth shoving 1k in postflop on a coinflip. There are better ways to play such a magnificient hand. Consider this kind of action Hero leads pot (30), villain makes it 120, hero just calls Pot (270) Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A seemingly innocuous card to villain, and you can either lead for 200, and villain doesnt know what to do with his AA. Or maybe you check, and villain believes you to be flushing, so he bets 200, and you can now push, the pot is 400 - which is well worth fighting for. Or another turn could go Pot (270) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero checks, villain bets 200, hero pushes. Villain will have a tough time calling that with his Aces, as your action really looks like a set. If he does call, well you still have many outs. Or what about this Pot (270) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hero checks ... villain checks ... what? He checks? Well yes, villain might be a little afraid of a check/raise, so he might just check here, and then the river .. J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Now you lead for 300, and villain has to look you up (if indeed he has AA). I would judge all of the above scenarios to be superior to firing 1k into the pot on the flop. All of them increase your chances of winning the pot, and increase the amount of money you can win with it. You also tend to put maximum pressure on an opponent who does have a big pair like AA or KK, and there are various scenarios where those hands will call big bets on the turn/river when they are drawing stone dead.
|
|
#25
12-08-2005, 12:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Common problem with super-draws
You get it allin on the flop here, he either folds alot and you win, he either calls and you gamble as a sligth favorite, or he calls and you have a set next time which you play the same way and hes [censored]. It all adds up to extra cash for you. Anyone who doesnt wanna get in on this flop either doesnt have enough gamble in them or ins underrolled.
|
|
#26
12-08-2005, 06:42 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Common problem with super-draws
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot? [/ QUOTE ] In the villain's place, would you call 250BBs with one pair? Sometimes pushing decreases your variance. [/ QUOTE ] These stacks are very deep, and you dont know what your FE is. [/ QUOTE ] The folding equity is huge. Expect people to raise/fold with TT-QQ, and perhaps a few hands without a pair. Some people will fold AA. It's particularly valuable to get higher flush draws to fold. If it were very likely that the villain would call, then it would be much more profitable to bet/3-bet all-in on the flop with sets. [ QUOTE ] If the action goes hero pot, villain pot raise, hero push, then if villain calls then you are AT BEST a small favourite over villain. [/ QUOTE ] It doesn't bother me to be a small favorite in the very unlikely case that the villain calls, and to pick up a small to medium sized pot most of the time. [ QUOTE ] The "dead" money is the $30 pot. This is not worth shoving 1k in postflop on a coinflip. ... Consider this kind of action Hero leads pot (30), villain makes it 120, hero just calls [/ QUOTE ] At that point, there isn't $30 in the pot. There is $180. It's tough to get paid off OOP. It makes more sense to try to keep the pot small until you hit when you have position.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
