Brunson ? cross posted in SSNL

[phish]

Just cause he's a great poker player doesn't mean he's not prone to some superstitious irrational ideas.

[illegit]

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Just cause he's a great poker player doesn't mean he's not prone to some superstitious irrational ideas.

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Yes, and this is certainly one of them. He doesn't qualify the statement at all by talking about his ability to steal pots due to having won a few; he literally believes (or at least did at the time) in the existence of hot streaks. What's more, I don't know of many games where playing every hand gets your bets MORE respect even if you've been showing down winners.

[Kaeser]

Well Doyle has always portrayed himself as a big gambler and not just a poker player.

However I was thinking about this a lot last night and I think Doyle's got the best of it here. Doyle says that if he wins a hand he almost always plays the next hand and usually brings it in for a raise. We all know that statistically there are times when you will get the cards to win several pots in a row, and you're much more likely to get paid off if other players have seen you betting and raising the last 3 hands.

It would probably be profitable for a very good player to almost always play the next hand after a winner, but only if you were confident of your reads and your opponents. That way you would maximize your gains when get a run of winning hands and minimize your losses.

Kaeser makes some good points. To elaborate a little:

Let's say you sit down in a game with nine other players. Each of you has an even stack of 1000 chips. You win the first few hands, and run your stack to 1900 while everyone else is at 900. Now, let's say you play suited connectors and flop a straight draw or flush draw. If you move all-in and lose you'll effectively be starting over, which, as a good player, you could rely on building back up. If you win, you'll go to 2800 chips (or more), make a player either leave or rebuy, and put yourself in position to dominate the table the rest of the night. In this way, it's similar to Doyle's style of always having a big stack in a game he plays in. If you're a very good player, then always playing a hand after taking a pot can be a good strategy to go for a huge win.

[Kaeser]

Just to qualify I'm not recommending that the average player just starts playing mediocre hands after a big win in an attempt to manufacture a "streak". In fact I have no intention of using this technique at all since the games I play in do not support it.

For this to really be a valid strategy I would want a deep stack no-limit table with several predictable opponents and no real maniacs. I seriously doubt it's necessary on-line. At least not at the limits I play.

The "rush" or "streak" is not a supersticious idea of Brunson's, it has to do with how the other players are viewing you. You have to make the most of your opportunities, as they may come around seldomly, so, if you showdown three or four good hands in a row, then your opponents view of you will be conducive to a rush. You go with it as long as you can. Then you go back to playing your hands, and not the opponents perceptions.

[chok1]

doyle's meaning is literal. I've gone on many streaks. Making a lot of money. you make more money the more pots you win in a row. More people are gunning for you and more willing they become to take you out. can be costly if you dont stop in time. Doyle also mentions it took him a long time before he knew when to stop playing his streak. I practice this move, call me crazy!!!

Actually in Super/System 2 he does qualify the statement by saying it has to do with table image.

Also, there is a mathematical concept known as "regression towards the mean" that explains why sometimes good cards (or bad cards for that matter) come in "streaks". Try flipping a coin about 100 times, you will see that now and then you may get heads several times in a row, but in the end you'll be about 50/50. It works itself out in the long run.

[Dudd]

I don't think regression to the mean means what you think it means.

In the type of game Doyle is talking about, he can invest 20% of his stack because of his "streak" he can steal the pot when his opponent misses the flop. Not superstition IMO but playing based on how the opponents perceive you.
You know damn well there have been times when you were getting dealt garbage, but the others at the table had no problem believing you had the goods, so you played the terrible hands to take advantage of that. You know when to stop playing the streak, when they start playing back at you and start defending against you. It's not that complicated. You have to exploit any advantage you get, and that is one of them. When it appears to the others that nothing can go wrong for you, they back off.