Got knocked out following HOH advice

[ComboProf]

The problem with M as prsented in HoH is that he does not make it clear what sort of level lengths he is talikng about.
M is the number of blinds you can survive - at the current level. But if you are playing with 20 min levels in a B&M room say, then you'll only see the blinds at that level once (on rare ocasions twice). So you need to devaluate M, i.e. you are under greater chip preasure than you thought.

However in your situation, I would have raised 3 to 4 times the blinds.

[hurlyburly]

Ignoring the math in tournaments isn't skillful poker. Period. One of your best case scenarios was JJ, but that doesn't make it correct.

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
Great post!

I would say it's even more -EV for the fact that the table is somewhat tight. I had to restrict the calling range to 99+ only 2 off the button to see that pushing here with less than a pair of tens is clearly wrong. No way AK/AQ is folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure this is wrong but let's do some math to make sure. 2 off the button means four players behind you, who will only call with 99+, AK/AQ (the range you gave above). Against that range, you are a 2-1 underdog. So when they call, 33% of the time you double up to ~17000 (depends if a blind calls or a non-blind calls) and 66% of the time you're out. When they fold, you're up to 9400 chips. So, how often do they call? Well, there are 52 choose 2 = 1326 different combinations of hands. 99+ is 36 combinations and AK/AQ is 32 combinations. So each player folds 1258/1326 of the time. Four players, so everyone folds (1258/1326)^4 = 81% of the time.

So, your chipEV for the push is:
(.81)*(9400) + (.19)(.33)(17000) + (.19)(.67)(0)
= 8679.9

This is equivalent to +479.9 chips. Now, a wider calling range would decrease this number (unless the range is so wide that KQs is a favourite against many calling hands) but at a tight table it would seem that pushing KQs 2 off the button with 10bb is clearly the right play.

If you do the same calculation for 3 and 4 off the button, you get +330 and +174 chips respectively. Still +chipEV but getting closer.

Hopefully all this math is right...

Steve

[flytrap]

He didn't exactly have any 2. He had a decent, although not great, hand.

[ekky]

its C2/50. you already know what 2 cards are (ie yours )

1225 combinations

[stevepa]

Damn, I knew I'd screw something up...and I really don't want to redo all of those calculations...especially because now I realize that there are fewer combinations of AK/AQ/KK/QQ because you hold one of each. Let's assume those two things cancel each out...somehow...

Steve

[fnurt]

The math is slightly off, because you haven't accounted for the 2 known cards in your hand, but the interesting fact is that if the calling range is truly this tight, it is +EV to push with any 2 here.

[hurlyburly]

"Against a tight range of 99+ you're a 66-33 dog to double up."

Why would you want to be take that bet then? 99+ is the top 2.8% of hands, multiply that by players remaining (minus the cards in your hand). 3 off the button you're going to get called by a hand that has you crushed >15% of the time. You're pushing to steal and increase your stack by 14%. -EV.

"Against a loose range of 77+, AJ+, KJ+ you're only a 57-42 dog to double up."

Expanding the range increases the chances of getting called by a better hand, making the play more -EV, not less. I put in 99+ just to illustrate that's how tight the range needs to be for this to be close to +EV.

"So 99+ is the top ___ % of hands? And the latter range is the top ___ % of hands? Given that info the EV calc will be easy (and undoubtedly +EV)."

~3% and ~9%, for each player left to act. I'm not advocating playing scared, but before pushing KQs, those are numbers worth considering vs the blinds your shooting for. I kept them rough so that they are a little quicker to calculate at the table, and I think it's better to error on the side of caution in these situations.

"Ignoring the math in tournaments isn't skillful poker. Period. One of your best case scenarios was JJ, but that doesn't make it correct. "

Ignoring the math is exactly what you are doing when you don't take fold equity into consideration.

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
"Against a tight range of 99+ you're a 66-33 dog to double up."

Why would you want to be take that bet then? 99+ is the top 2.8% of hands, multiply that by players remaining (minus the cards in your hand). 3 off the button you're going to get called by a hand that has you crushed >15% of the time. You're pushing to steal and increase your stack by 14%. -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

As Fnurt noted above, if the calling range is that tight, pushing any two is +EV (i.e. if you were to push in that situation a very large number of times you would, on average, end up with more chips than if you folded). Just because you're called and are an underdog more often that everyone folds does not make it -EV. Remember you win some of the time you're called.

Steve