HU against a "PT'er"

[Entity]

I fold the flop.

[jason_t]

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I fold the flop.

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Yes. And I bet the river.

I've read through this one and I have to say I believe it's one of those nearly flip a coin situations. BUT -- Given your "he's trying to isolate me" read -- the flop would be a peel for me. The reason I'm peeling one here is not that I have the odds (is everyone going to do the "hm, half and out for this, let's discount that, oh, reverse implied there...." in the time it takes to make a decision?). It's close. Smallish, HU pot makes for a fold with overs in most cases. Somewhere in TOP or HPFAP the point is made, however, that you can't always fold overs to aggression. You gotta peel even without the odds (I think it's in the loose calls part, where you might call with a beat mid-pair getting 10/12-1 or so in the right pot as well). There's just too much chance of being run over by your opposition on other hands if you do. Metagame, I guess, though I normally ovoid any metagame stuff for online SS games for the usual reasons. But when I've got overs without the A (again, HPFAP, too much reverse dominated probability), a back door flush, back door straight... I'm going to see another card.

This is small stakes. One advantage we have here is that it’s easier for us to see more streets than higher play (Not because it’s cheaper). When the balance is teetering on fold, go ahead and call on occasion.

I might get slammed for this, but I think we’re over-analyzing the “outs” on this one.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I've read through this one and I have to say I believe it's one of those nearly flip a coin situations. BUT -- Given your "he's trying to isolate me" read -- the flop would be a peel for me. The reason I'm peeling one here is not that I have the odds (is everyone going to do the "hm, half and out for this, let's discount that, oh, reverse implied there...." in the time it takes to make a decision?). It's close. Smallish, HU pot makes for a fold with overs in most cases. Somewhere in TOP or HPFAP the point is made, however, that you can't always fold overs to aggression. You gotta peel even without the odds (I think it's in the loose calls part, where you might call with a beat mid-pair getting 10/12-1 or so in the right pot as well). There's just too much chance of being run over by your opposition on other hands if you do. Metagame, I guess, though I normally ovoid any metagame stuff for online SS games for the usual reasons. But when I've got overs without the A (again, HPFAP, too much reverse dominated probability), a back door flush, back door straight... I'm going to see another card.

This is small stakes. One advantage we have here is that it’s easier for us to see more streets than higher play (Not because it’s cheaper). When the balance is teetering on fold, go ahead and call on occasion.

I might get slammed for this, but I think we’re over-analyzing the “outs” on this one.

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I don't think so. In position, we can make a loose peel here (i.e. we raised and he 3-bet from a blind, etc.). It's close then. In this case, since we still have to check the turn, and we have no clue what our opponent holds, we're facing an icky spot which is best solved by folding, getting 8.5:1 OOP, almost surely facing a turn bet, with around 4 tarnished outs.

He 3-bet in position. I'd give a lot more respect to a 3-bet from the blinds.

A third of the deck or so will get you to call the turn. Everything else is a clear fold.

Oops, I misread Entity's point. In fact, I thought he thought the 3-bet came from the blind. Yeeech, reading too fast.

Yes, OOP and all. I get it. It's close. And against a lot of opponents I'd fold this, too. This just sounds like one of those cases where you'd want to peel.

I see a lot of iso-raises from table coach types with small to mid-pairs. I think the overcard outs are closer to half-dirty, rather than 60% or more. They love the iso stuff. Shows their balls off. They've read Helmuth and think he's the blankity-blank.

[W. Deranged]

Rob and I are clearly in agreement here.

I think this has been a pretty fruitful discussion, and I think it's brought up a couple of very important issues that I think are very crucial for small stakes players to think very hard about:

1. Be very careful when counting overcard outs. Clearly consider your opponents likely ranges before assuming that pair outs are good.

2. It is very important to consider issues like position, implied and reverse implied odds, and your ability to extract value when improving in making our decisions. Just because Pokerstove says we have enough equity to continue doesn't mean we'll realize all that equity or that future effects don't decrease/increase the value of our hand.

3. Consideration of opponents and image is important, but it's very important to carefully analyze the value of "image moves."

I'm arguing this one half because I believe in the call, and half because I wanna be talked out of it.

It's just that for me, BD + BD + thin overcards+iso-aggression is going to equal a call a lot of the time. It is damned thin, no arguing with that. And the argument that we're going to feel happier next time we have a hand kinda sucks cause this guys a couple hands to our left. Iso-aggression is going to cause us more problems from that table-coach than finding the hand to play into after playing "weak". If I can't raise my semi-nice hands from MP into most of the limp-passive, good tables... well, I might just have to find another table.

If any of you guys advocating fold here opened up villains range from 99-TT+ to mid-pairs (66+, weighted), is this a call?

[chief444]

Flop...eh whatever. Seems a bit loose to me but not horrid.

I think you should bet the river. He could have AK or even AQ and will check through but may call a bet. He may see your bet line as AJ/KJ/AT or whatever doing the standard c/c c/c bet line and raise if he has a hand worth a bet if you check. He obviously doesn't think KQ should be in your range for a flop call. It probably shouldn't. So he'd likely raise the river bet with an overpair. He'll almost certainly raise a river bet with a set. A c/r kills the action most of the time though.

[BigBrother]

Playing the results you definitely got your $ worth. Seeing that he'll 3-bet your EP raise with AJo in the $2/4 is priceless.

The problem is, how often will you ever see the river (much less a showdown) in this situation given your TAG read?