Live Tourney - Very Tough Spot

[9cao]

This hand occurred in a live 130 person tournament last week at my local casino. The hand is still bugging me so I would like to get some feedback.

The tournament is down to 40 players (top 15 pay) and we just had a break so I know that I am 2nd chip leader, with chip leader seated to my immediate left. He is a total donk and has seen chips fall into his lap despite his play. There are about 300,000 chips in play. I have about 22,000 and he has over 30,000.

Blinds are 150-300 with a 50 ante. I am in the SB with As2s. Folded to button (about 7,000) who limps, I complete, and BB (chip leader) checks.

Flop comes AT2 with 2 diamonds. I check, chip leader bets 1,000, and the big blind calls. I serioulsy thought about folding right there but decided to declare (not literally) I had 2-pair and raised to 4,000. BB, almost instantly says raise you 20,000. Button folds quickly.

Now the only things I know for sure are that this guy would raise AA, TT, 100% preflop. I also have a suspicion he would raise AT in that spot but I can't be nearly as sure.

Any thoughts?????

[hurlyburly]

Call and flip your cards. What sitation are you waiting for?

[billyjex]

very tough spot.

is BB an aggressive donk? would he do this with something you have beat or is he capable of semibluffing w/ a draw?

I might find a fold here since our chip position is so nice.

[jrforman]

Fold and move on...Blinds too small and stack too big to risk your tourney with top/bottom, esp if you know you can get the chips later

[yoadrians]

Judging by your 'reads', I think you're 100 percent ahead in this hand at this point. But I think he's got some outs - maybe KQd or KJd ... heck, some kind of a diamond draw with maybe a gutshot out, too.

Feel like gambling? Call if you do.

Otherwise, muck and bust the donk later. But I think you're ahead right now, and I'm tempted to call.

[DVC Calif]

[ QUOTE ]
Now the only things I know for sure are that this guy would raise AA, TT, 100% preflop. I also have a suspicion he would raise AT in that spot but I can't be nearly as sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Way ahead or Waaaay behind...don't you love these decisions. I agree that Donk probably would have raised it up if he had a premium hand, so I would probably discount him having a set. He might also use his stack to punish limpers with AT, so you might take away top two pair.

I think he is on either the flush draw or a backdoor straight, or a combination of the two (J:diamond, 9:diamond ?).

That being said, if your weak-tight, lay it down and find a better spot to take his chips. Bad beats and suckouts happen live as easily as they do online.

If your a little looser and don't mind pushing small edges, then this is an easy call with the range of hands he could hold. Nothing like having 20% of the chips in play to dominate a tournament.

Hope it worked out but since you posted and it's been bugging you, I'm guessing not.

[9cao]

Very observant. Yes I did lay this one down face-up causing quite a stir, and it bothers me for 4 reasons:

1) Why did I raise to 4,000 if I was not prepared to go with my hand? Would I play it strong out of position when every card in the deck could make his hand (flush draw, gut shot, Ax)?

2) Donk said I had him. I asked what did you have and he said Ace-Ten. I said that was top 2. He said oh, I mean, Ace....something....and he trailed off mumbling.

3) I got moved 5 minutes later and Donk gave all of his chips to the table within the hour.

4) I folded and finished 2nd for the second consecutive time in that tournament where 1st is twice the payout that 2nd is.

So essentially, I got what I asked for, I lived another day and had a great finish using my remaining chips. In hindsight, I would have called and went balls out for 1st.

[bruce]

Against an idiot who can bust me gambling is not a favorite
proposition of mine. But when I have two pair against a donkey with a flush and gutshot draw, who may have a solitary Ace, I can't find too many better spots to put em all in. I think this is a definite call. You are giving up way the best of it by folding and waiting for a better moment. I don't think you'll find too many sweeter than this.

Bruce

[22suited]

just curious if the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] was there and if he couldn't possibly have the pair of aces + flush draw. If it wasn't there that's what I would have put him on. I think if the board paired 10s, kickers probably wouldn't matter with the 5th card so I think he had ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] low if that was a possibility

[mmmmmbrother]

T2o