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  #11  
Old 12-22-2005, 09:12 AM
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Default Re: More flack from the roomate

I think it's healthy to question the way you play and try to improve. But I also think that this is an easy push.

The likely outcome is that you take the blinds and the bets from the limpers.
There are 3 people to act after you. The likelyhood that one of them has JJ+ is a little over 5% if my math is right. I'll assume that they'll all call with JJ and fold 99.
Let's say you'll get called by AK as well. The odds that one of them has that is 3.5%.
I'll ignore that one of the limpers could have a monster here.

So there's 91.5% chance they won't call you and you win T700.
5% someone calls with JJ+ and you're about 81% to lose T2480 and 19% to win T3180.
3.5% someone calls with AK and you're about 55% to win T3180 and 45% to lose T2480.

Combined EV = .915*700+.05*(.81*-2480+.19*3180)+.035*(.55*3180+.45*-2480) = +T592
If you think someone might fold JJ or call with 99- or AQ, then EV is larger.

Your roommate will argue that his play has even greater EV. I don't think so. In the AA scenario, the BB will either reraise you all in preflop or smooth call and put the rest in on any flop. Will you fold any of those?

Playing TT after a flop isn't going to be nice either. Your stack is so short that you can't really get any more information. And one or more overcards will flop 70% of the time. An ace or king will flop 42% of the time.

So keep it simple. Take the T592 and run.
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  #12  
Old 12-22-2005, 10:06 AM
Chief911 Chief911 is offline
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Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 36
Default Re: More flack from the roomate

Is this really such an easy decision? What does pushing with TT accomplish here? It is afterall, a pair of tens~

I'll come back and sound more intelligent (Or attempt to), but I think this is far from a clear push, regardless of what your X, Z, and T is~

Nick
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  #13  
Old 12-22-2005, 10:13 AM
woodguy woodguy is offline
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Location: Edmonton, Alberta
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Default Re: More flack from the roomate

I absolutely LOVE pushing 99-QQ into a bunch of limpers, even with deep stacks because someone always seems to put you on a bluff or AK and decides to look you up with 22-88.

Great way to get a CDU anytime during a tourney.

No brainer here.

Regards,
Woodguy
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  #14  
Old 12-22-2005, 10:19 AM
Sam T. Sam T. is offline
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Default Re: More flack from the roomate

Yes.
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  #15  
Old 12-22-2005, 10:21 AM
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Default Re: More flack from the roomate

[ QUOTE ]
You're M is actually ~8 (2480/(100+200)=8.26).

Standard push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can someone explain M to me? Appears to be sum of blinds divided into your stack size. I'm assuming this dictates push or don't push preflop if your M is under X.
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  #16  
Old 12-22-2005, 10:36 AM
Skjonne Skjonne is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Denmark
Posts: 122
Default Re: More flack from the roomate

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're M is actually ~8 (2480/(100+200)=8.26).

Standard push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can someone explain M to me? Appears to be sum of blinds divided into your stack size. I'm assuming this dictates push or don't push preflop if your M is under X.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair and fine question but as Kneeco and Lloyd put so much effort into the FAQ it really deserves to get read.

Item 24
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  #17  
Old 12-22-2005, 10:53 AM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Posts: 44
Default Re: More flack from the roomate

Gators, you are confusing the number of BBs in your stack and M.

Mooooooooooooooo!
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  #18  
Old 12-22-2005, 11:31 AM
ansky451 ansky451 is offline
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Posts: 24
Default Re: More flack from the roomate

How is your M 12?
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  #19  
Old 12-22-2005, 11:37 AM
mlagoo mlagoo is offline
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Default Re: More flack from the roomate

im interested to hear chiefs explanation for how this could be anything but an easy push [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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  #20  
Old 12-22-2005, 11:45 AM
jd2b2006 jd2b2006 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Gainesville, FL
Posts: 31
Default Re: More flack from the roomate

[ QUOTE ]
He keeps advocating a raise to 550-600 so that if an A or K comes I can get away with it.

Haven't hit him yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does he always advocate raising 2.5-3 x BB with middle pairs just so he can get away if an overcard comes? Sounds more weak-tight than Daniel Bergsdorf.
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