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  #11  
Old 12-13-2005, 01:13 AM
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Default Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs

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QJs is about 47% against Ax or Kx

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That's the equity that you need to call. Throw in the odds of KJ, KQ, AJ, occasionally AQ and AK, and this is a fold.
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  #12  
Old 12-13-2005, 01:13 AM
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Default Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs

sorry, but i've seen monsters do this just for the reason that they think it looks like they're stealing and no big hand could possible do this, and they know a normal raise is also likely to be folded. if BB has hand (like a pocket pair or AK or AQ),they call this and now he gets paid.
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  #13  
Old 12-13-2005, 01:25 AM
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Default Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs

Depends what your calling range is. If he knows that you'd consider calling with QJs it's probably a pretty bad play. It may be a pretty good play, but that doesn't mean it's standard. I rarely see this.
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  #14  
Old 12-13-2005, 02:28 AM
betgo betgo is offline
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Default Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs

I was SB on this play and pushed with A8o. BB called instantly with QJs and busted me out.

I was a little shocked by the play, and figured he was a calling station or something. However, I ran the hands on two dimes and he was getting 47% same as hispot odds. I think it was a bad call, but closer than it seems. It is almost impossible for QJs to be significantly ahead. I thought it would be interesting to discuss.

I like to overbet push from the SB, but not usually this much. I did it this time because I thought A8o was a good hand for it and my opponent had 3 times my stack.
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  #15  
Old 12-13-2005, 02:32 AM
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Default Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

QJs is about 47% against Ax or Kx

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the equity that you need to call. Throw in the odds of KJ, KQ, AJ, occasionally AQ and AK, and this is a fold.

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Also, cEV doesn't equal EV, etc, so if the situation's close, you should opt to lower the variance in your chip stack because lower chip stack variance translate directly to EV in MTTs. If you call here, it's either about cEV neutral or -cEV and very high variance. So, it's -EV to call and you should fold.
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  #16  
Old 12-13-2005, 04:24 AM
AtlBrvs4Life AtlBrvs4Life is offline
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Default Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs

Ok this is obviously a fold, but what range of hands does everyone call with?
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  #17  
Old 12-13-2005, 04:26 AM
bugstud bugstud is offline
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Default Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs

[ QUOTE ]
I was SB on this play and pushed with A8o. BB called instantly with QJs and busted me out.

I was a little shocked by the play, and figured he was a calling station or something. However, I ran the hands on two dimes and he was getting 47% same as hispot odds. I think it was a bad call, but closer than it seems. It is almost impossible for QJs to be significantly ahead. I thought it would be interesting to discuss.

I like to overbet push from the SB, but not usually this much. I did it this time because I thought A8o was a good hand for it and my opponent had 3 times my stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you raising less than your stack with premium hands?
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  #18  
Old 12-13-2005, 09:46 AM
betgo betgo is offline
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Default Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was SB on this play and pushed with A8o. BB called instantly with QJs and busted me out.

I was a little shocked by the play, and figured he was a calling station or something. However, I ran the hands on two dimes and he was getting 47% same as hispot odds. I think it was a bad call, but closer than it seems. It is almost impossible for QJs to be significantly ahead. I thought it would be interesting to discuss.

I like to overbet push from the SB, but not usually this much. I did it this time because I thought A8o was a good hand for it and my opponent had 3 times my stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you raising less than your stack with premium hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I definately would only push with something like A8o, KQ, or a small pp. I wouldn't have pushed a much weaker unsuited ace. If I knew the villain would call with QJs annd similar hands, I would definately push with AK, TT etc.

The push is slightly EV+, whether villain is tight or loose. I don't know if it was a good play. I had a difficult hand to play OOP short stacked. I thought villain might make a mistake with the big bet in calling or folding when he shouldn't. He did, but notone that particularly benefited me.

In this case, if I had standard raised, I would have flopped TPTK and my opponent a flush draw and over cards, so all the money would have gone in on the flop or preflop anyway.
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  #19  
Old 12-13-2005, 10:58 AM
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Default Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs

IMHO, I have a couple of observations here:

1) There is no mention of antes, but BB is 600, so SB is 300, villain is therefore at M=12.8. He's not dead yet, but getting close to needing life support. When do the blinds move and what are the antes? If fairly soon, an all-in move is not neccessarily strength, particularly when he speaks first now, and may not do so again for several hands. If there were antes, and the blinds were moving soon, the all-in would be nearly mandatory with any two cards.

If we assume a $50 ante: M drops to 8.5. If we assume blinds move soon (and they do on Stars), M soon will drop to about 4.2. SB is out of the tournament, for all intents and purposes.... any decent hand is an all-in hand while his stack can still do damage to any player. He is out of options. Hero's choice is now a judgement call on whether SB recognizes these facts or not. SB may hold just about anything. Personnally, in the absence of a definite read, I wouldn't want to risk a third of my stack on it (that's why this tactic usually works)and I'd let him steal. In this case, the intended victim was the big stack who had less to lose than the mid-stacks. If anyone called, it would have been him.

2) Just about everyone who posted completely discounted the possibility that SB held a premium hand. That would therefore imply that a crazy high raise late in the tournament would be a well disguised, strategically sound move.
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  #20  
Old 12-13-2005, 11:42 AM
schwza schwza is offline
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Default Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs

[ QUOTE ]
Ok this is obviously a fold, but what range of hands does everyone call with?

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right around the range of hands that crushes A8: A9+, 66+, KQ

which is why i hate this push with a8. imo, raise > call > push > fold
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