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  #31  
Old 11-27-2005, 06:49 PM
Jimbo Jimbo is offline
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Default Re: 10% refund question

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So despite all your protest to the contrary, a 10% rebate is a +EV offer.


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And despite all your calculations the only thing I can agree with is that getting 10% of your losses back makes it less -EV but never +EV. After all if you end up losing money on your session you still lost. How can losing ever be +EV without a jackpot?

Jimbo

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OMG...you must be kidding me. Nobody can have >3000 posts here and be this ignorant...so I am going to assume you are just a worthless troll and ignore you going forward...

Acme

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Very nice, you cannot refute my logical argument so you resort to name calling. I expected better but alas I am often disappointed.

Godd luck getting rich on your new +EV blackjack system. May I have an autographed copy of your book after it goes to print?


Jimbo
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  #32  
Old 11-27-2005, 08:51 PM
AcmeSalesRep AcmeSalesRep is offline
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Default Re: 10% refund question

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So despite all your protest to the contrary, a 10% rebate is a +EV offer.


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And despite all your calculations the only thing I can agree with is that getting 10% of your losses back makes it less -EV but never +EV. After all if you end up losing money on your session you still lost. How can losing ever be +EV without a jackpot?

Jimbo

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OMG...you must be kidding me. Nobody can have >3000 posts here and be this ignorant...so I am going to assume you are just a worthless troll and ignore you going forward...

Acme

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Very nice, you cannot refute my logical argument so you resort to name calling. I expected better but alas I am often disappointed.

Godd luck getting rich on your new +EV blackjack system. May I have an autographed copy of your book after it goes to print?


Jimbo

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When you present a logical argument, I will refute it. Until then, I will continue to assume you are a troll.

All you have said is that losing cannot be +EV. I have presented the way it is +EV, but all you say (over and over ad nauseum) is that if you lose, you only get back 10% of your bet, so it cannot be +EV.

If you will not accept the math, you are either ignorant or a troll...and thus, I will not waste another second on you...

Acme
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  #33  
Old 11-27-2005, 08:59 PM
AcmeSalesRep AcmeSalesRep is offline
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Default Re: 10% refund question

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Back to your example, say you lost a hand, and decide to do it again, and now win a hand, you LOSE that 10% rebate that you were lined up to receive after the first hand, since you are not at a net loss now.

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Ok, that's the missing piece of the puzzle. So, maybe the way to play this is to organize a consortium: decide how much to risk and then all players in the group make a single wager of equal value on their accounts and then lump the results and share the profits. This removes the penalty for winning bets after losing ones.

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Basically, you have it...but you can do this as an individual by doing it over numerous such offers. Say you know of several casinos that offer such a deal every month. ..you can split your bankroll into bets that you can stomach losing and then run the bonus at each site month after month. Since each bet is +EV overall, you are likely to end up with more money than you start with.

Naturally, there is no guarantee -- just as you can bust a dozen stickies in a row, you can bust one a dozen (or more) rebate offers in a row. But that does not change the fact that the long-term result of this offer is +EV.

Contrary to another poster's thinking, the fact that you CAN lose money does not mean the deal is -EV.

From the casino's perspective, the only real way for this to hurt them is if a large number of people play these as 1-bet bonuses. They are counting on people making many bets and, thus, ensuring that the rebate simply reduces their overall advantage. And they are ok with reducing their HA some if it significantly increases the action.

Acme
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  #34  
Old 11-27-2005, 08:59 PM
Jimbo Jimbo is offline
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Default Re: 10% refund question

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If you will not accept the math....

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How you cannot understand that your math is flawed is beyond me. What is so hard to understand about the refund? You are becoming quite stubborn and displaying it and your ignorance for all to see.

Jimbo
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  #35  
Old 11-27-2005, 09:05 PM
AcmeSalesRep AcmeSalesRep is offline
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Default Re: 10% refund question

Yawn...
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  #36  
Old 11-28-2005, 12:10 AM
Jimbo Jimbo is offline
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Default Re: 10% refund question

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48.825% of the time you double up; 51.175% of the time, you end up with 10% of your bet. The EV is +$2.76.


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Actually you will win 43.31% of the time, you'll tie 8.8% of the time and lose 47.89% of the time. Now do you see why you are mistaken and how you made your math error? These percentages still allow for blackjack, doubling and splitting. So in your single hand scenario for your max bet the odds are even worse.


It should be aparrent (even to you) why the 10% rebate on your total session losses (yes even a session consisting of one hand) is -EV.


Jimbo
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  #37  
Old 11-28-2005, 12:23 AM
yoshi_yoshi yoshi_yoshi is offline
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Default Re: 10% refund question

And despite all your calculations the only thing I can agree with is that getting 10% of your losses back makes it less -EV but never +EV. After all if you end up losing money on your session you still lost. How can losing ever be +EV without a jackpot?

Jimbo
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Hi, I just stumbled upon this thread....

Consider the casino giving you back 100% of your losses. You play 100 hands. That is clearly +EV right? Consider normally, where the casino gives you back 0% of your losses. You play 100 hands. That is clearly -EV. So there must be a magical percentage for our example, 100 hands, that is the crossover between + and - EV. I haven't thought about any of the math, but I don't know how you can be sure where 10% stands with regards to that magical #, especially since you don't even have the number of hands we are playing.
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  #38  
Old 11-28-2005, 12:27 AM
Benholio Benholio is offline
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Default Re: 10% refund question

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
48.825% of the time you double up; 51.175% of the time, you end up with 10% of your bet. The EV is +$2.76.


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Actually you will win 43.31% of the time, you'll tie 8.8% of the time and lose 47.89% of the time. Now do you see why you are mistaken and how you made your math error? These percentages still allow for blackjack, doubling and splitting. So in your single hand scenario for your max bet the odds are even worse.


It should be aparrent (even to you) why the 10% rebate on your total session losses (yes even a session consisting of one hand) is -EV.


Jimbo

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Ok, assuming your numbers are correct, and that they somehow encompass doubling / splitting / getting a blackjack (I don't see how they could, but whatever), if we bet $100 we would get $200 back 43.31% of the time, $100 back 8.8% of the time, and $10 back 47.89% of the time.

(.4331 * 200) + (.088 * 100) + (.4789 * 10) = 100.199

This is still +EV, and doesn't account for blackjack payouts or doubles, etc.
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  #39  
Old 11-28-2005, 12:30 AM
Jimbo Jimbo is offline
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Default Re: 10% refund question

Yoshi,

When I play craps or blackjack in a Vegas Casino I get back 40% of my projected losses in comps. Yet that doesn't make the casino table games +EV. So to answer your question as to where the percentage lays I know it must be greater than 40%. Right? Keep in mind I get that whether I win or lose.
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  #40  
Old 11-28-2005, 12:57 AM
AcmeSalesRep AcmeSalesRep is offline
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Default Re: 10% refund question

I ignore Jimbo, but another person's text has his text in it...and it is a reply to one of my posts...so I guess I should acknowledge it... While this falls as a reply to another poster, it is really a reply to Jimbo.


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48.825% of the time you double up; 51.175% of the time, you end up with 10% of your bet. The EV is +$2.76.


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually you will win 43.31% of the time, you'll tie 8.8% of the time and lose 47.89% of the time. Now do you see why you are mistaken and how you made your math error? These percentages still allow for blackjack, doubling and splitting. So in your single hand scenario for your max bet the odds are even worse.


It should be aparrent (even to you) why the 10% rebate on your total session losses (yes even a session consisting of one hand) is -EV.


Jimbo

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I'll accept your numbers. But they do not get worse for the no double/split possibility. In fact, the win/loss rate actually IMPROVES if you never double. (Since you can take a second card when you double against a high card and get an A, your chances of winning improve by not doubling; but your EV suffers because you are not getting extra money out there when you are better than 50/50 to win.)

So, we will accept your numbers and say you can never double or split AND you only get paid even money on a blackjack...and it STILL comes out slightly +EV! (This has already been shown, so I will not bother showing it again.)

Add in the (correct) 3:2 payout on blackjacks and the bonus becomes even better. Approximately 4.7% of the time, you will be dealt a blackjack. In approximately 4.7% of *those* cases, the dealer will also have BJ and you push (this is included in the 8.8% of the time you mention as being pushes).

So adjusting your numbers to allow the 3:2 payoff on BJ, you get something very close to:

4.47% of the time you win 3:2
38.84% of the time you win even money
8.8% of the time you push
47.89% of the time you lose

Adding in the payouts...on a $100 bet with no doubles/splits:
4.47% of the time you end up with $250
38.84% of the time you end up with $200
8.8% of the time you end up with $100 (and can start over)
47.89% of the time you end up with $10

Doing the math, the EV comes to $2.44. So the offer is clearly +EV. And if allow yourself to split and/or double, your EV will climb a bit higher than this. (Also notice that the degree to which it is +EV is close to my earlier rough calculation of $2.76.)

Somehow I expect you will continue to claim you are correct...after all, there is no reason to let the math get in your way!

Acme
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