Two Plus Two Older Archives 10% refund question
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#11
11-27-2005, 11:13 AM
 Bigdaddydvo Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 231
Re: 10% refund question

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My quick math tells me this is a marginally winning. Assume a 1% house edge in BJ playing perfect strategy. X is your EV.

.49X - .51X + (.1)(.51X) = .031X or a 3% advantage.

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Aside from the fact that you gave the house a 2% advantage, I believe your method is ok IF you are going to play a single bet...and either double your money or get a 10% rebate on your loss...

In reality, the house advantage accounts for the 1.5 payoff of a blackajack and the times you double/split. So the real calculation is more complex, but the idea is generally the same...

Acme

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This should work over time as well. It is comparable to betting on "The Banker" in Baccaret. I believe Banker has 2-3% advantage, but you must pay a 5% vig on your winnings. In this case you are a 1-2% underdog in BJ, and the house is paying YOU a 10% vig on its winnings. I'll say it again...I think this promotion is +EV.
#12
11-27-2005, 01:33 PM
 Jimbo Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Planet Earth but relocating Posts: 2,193
Re: 10% refund question

Suppose you made 1000 \$10 bets with a HA of only 1%. You would expect to lose \$100 over that span and would be rebated \$10 still losing \$90. All they are doing is lowering the house advantage by 10% from 1% to .9%, still -EV.
#13
11-27-2005, 01:45 PM
 act Junior Member Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 26
Re: 10% refund question

It depends on how you play. If you play one hand you will have an edge. If tou play more hands you will not.
#14
11-27-2005, 01:56 PM
 Jimbo Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Planet Earth but relocating Posts: 2,193
Re: 10% refund question

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It depends on how you play. If you play one hand you will have an edge. If tou play more hands you will not.

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Does that mean if I bet on the flip of a coin only once I have an edge but if i do it twice it is -EV?
#15
11-27-2005, 02:04 PM
 Bigdaddydvo Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 231
Re: 10% refund question

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It depends on how you play. If you play one hand you will have an edge. If tou play more hands you will not.

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This clearly does not make sense. Each event is independent..either it is +EV or not.
#16
11-27-2005, 02:25 PM
 Benholio Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 238
Re: 10% refund question

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It depends on how you play. If you play one hand you will have an edge. If tou play more hands you will not.

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This clearly does not make sense. Each event is independent..either it is +EV or not.

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Each event isn't independant. The 10% refund is given on the net total of all hands played. If you lose the first hand, then win the next 5, you don't get any refund back. You can't count the refund into the EV of each single hand if you are playing more than 1 hand.
#17
11-27-2005, 02:30 PM
 AcmeSalesRep Junior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 25
Re: 10% refund question

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Suppose you made 1000 \$10 bets with a HA of only 1%. You would expect to lose \$100 over that span and would be rebated \$10 still losing \$90. All they are doing is lowering the house advantage by 10% from 1% to .9%, still -EV.

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A 10% rebate on losses creates a +EV situation. You are just not looking at it properly.

Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)...

Deposit \$100 and bet it all:
49% of the time, I end up with \$200;
51% of the time, I end up with \$10.

On average, I will end up with \$103.

Clearly, this is +EV.

Acme
#18
11-27-2005, 02:45 PM
 AcmeSalesRep Junior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 25
Re: 10% refund question

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It depends on how you play. If you play one hand you will have an edge. If tou play more hands you will not.

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This clearly does not make sense. Each event is independent..either it is +EV or not.

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It clearly DOES make sense. You do not get the rebate on each individual bet...you get it on the net result during the period in question.

Scenario 1 -- 1 \$200 bet -- EV is about +\$6.00
Scenario 2 -- 2 \$100 bets -- EV is about +\$1.20
Scenario 3 -- 4 \$50 bets -- EV is about -\$.05

In all 3 cases, I have placed the same total bet -- \$200. But the EV decreases as I break things into more bets of a smaller amount.

The loss rebate is only on the net loss at the end of the session. With just one bet, you have a reasonable chance of ending up with a net winning session. With many bets, you have very little chance of a net winning session.

If you are unlikely to have a net winning session, you will not have a +EV situation on a loss rebate. So for one bet, it is +EV...but for many bets, it is -EV.

Acme
#19
11-27-2005, 03:12 PM
 Jimbo Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Planet Earth but relocating Posts: 2,193
Re: 10% refund question

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Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)...

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Actually it doesn't, that is the problem with your calculation.
#20
11-27-2005, 03:22 PM
 Benholio Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 238
Re: 10% refund question

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Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)...

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Actually it doesn't, that is the problem with your calculation.

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That is not a big deal anyway. Bet half of your bankroll. Actually, I'm sure there is a spot between half and full bankroll that returns the highest EV, but none of this is really the point.

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