How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)

[ColdestCall]

Scuba, I'm a little unsure why you felt it necessary to taunt the loser after the hand...had he said something to provoke you earlier in the tournament?

Personally, I think its incumbent upon the winning/more knowledgable players to avoid this kind of table talk with one exception(and even this may be wrong, but I just can't help it)... If there is a player at the table who is taunting me, or the other players, I'll usually encourage him nicely to stop, and, if he doesn't, I really let him have it, especially when he busts out, as these types of players do with alarming regularity OOTM.

Anyway, I guess it's really your business what you chat, and maybe I'm just being a "poker mom," but consider this: 1. If losing players are enjoying themselves and keep losing, you win. 2. If other players think you are a "sucker," but you're not, you win. 3. The more pleasant it is to play poker, the more people are likely to play, and the more you should win.

Now, as I've said in other posts, I don't think the fish are going to do anything but multiply, no matter what anyone chats, so 1-3 could be discounted on that basis, but, most importantly,

4. The poker giants that we all wish we were handle both losing and winning with equanimity and class (yeah, Hellmuth whines and Arieh acts like a child, but would you rather act like them, or Brunson or Raymer.)

[1C5]

Oh man I can't stand Arieh just by watching him on TV. What an idiot.

[jcm4ccc]

Let’s do the ICM calculations for you, and see how often you need them to fold for your push to be correct with any 2.

Since you pushed with 62o, I will assume that if you are called, you are being called by 2 overcards. Let’s go with Q9o. Against 2 overcards, you will win 34% of the time, and lose 66% of the time. Here are the 4 possibilities (I am assuming that you will never be called by both hands)

Fold: 31.5% (ICM percentage of pool)
Push, both blinds fold: 33.9%
Push, SB calls: 23.6% (calculations below)
Push, BB calls: 25.4% (calculations below)

To simplify things, let’s combine SB and BB
Push, SB or BB calls: 24.5%


How often do you need both SB and BB to fold for the percentage to be exactly the same?
(x = folding percentage of SB and BB)

.315 = .339 * x + (.245 * (1 – x)
Solving for x
x = 74.5%


So you need the SB & the BB to fold 74.5% of the time for your push to be break-even. Dividing that by 2, you need the SB and the BB to call less than 12.75% of the time for your push to be positive:

74.5%: SB and BB fold
12.75%: SB calls, BB folds
12.75%: SB folds, BB calls
(.339 * .745) + (.245 * .1275) + (.245 * .1275) = 31.5% of prize pool.

If the SB and the BB call 15% of the time:
(.339 * .7) + (.245 * .15) + (.245 * .15) = 31.0% of prize pool

If the SB and BB call 10% of the time:
(.339 * .8) + (.245 * .10) + (.245 * .10) = 32% of prize pool


Given that you had been pushing a lot of hands, I would think that either one would call you more than 12.75% of the time.



[CALCULATIONS]
Calculations if SB calls:
Push, SB calls, you win
ICM% of pool, 42.8%

Push, SB calls, you lose
ICM% of pool: 13.8%

So your percentage of pool if the SB calls is:
(.428*.34) + (.138*.66) = 23.6%



Calculations if BB calls:
Push, BB calls, you win
ICM% of pool: 41.4%

Push, BB calls, you lose
ICM% of pool: 17.2%

So your percentage of pool if the BB calls is:
(.414*.34) + (.172*.66) = 25.4%

[shoeman]

No, not at all. It was 100% the right move in this case. Just a bad beat. The comment actually had nothing to do with the thread. Sorry for the confusion.

[Afrosquad]

[ QUOTE ]
I definately like the aggressive play on the bubble.

However, I'd have a hard time passing up on AK here if I were the BB. There are only a few hands I call with here and I think AK is one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would call in a millisecond against an aggressive raiser.

[Afrosquad]

[ QUOTE ]
Scuba, I'm a little unsure why you felt it necessary to taunt the loser after the hand...had he said something to provoke you earlier in the tournament?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming there was some provocation earlier. Otherwise, it's completely classless.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
The trash talk was low-class.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Handled with true class and dignity. You dont really see the beneficiary of the suckout taunting the loser too often,
its a real treat.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Scuba, I'm a little unsure why you felt it necessary to taunt the loser after the hand...had he said something to provoke you earlier in the tournament?


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh man I can't stand Arieh just by watching him on TV. What an idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming there was some provocation earlier. Otherwise, it's completely classless.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I have to admit that I was a classless poker player right there. Why did I do it? I don't know. I rarely if ever do it. Sometiems it just comes out. It could be frustration on another table, or a series of other tables, who knows? At the time, I guess I didn't think what I said was taunting. And I looked at the HH, and prior to that hand, admittedly, there was no provocation by villain for me to 'taunt'. Looking back, it was for sure taunting. I will be tight lipped forever forward.

And in my defense, I was not allin on every hand. Only 5 out of the previous 8, that's barely over half. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[microbet]

I'll do a little math on this one myself, but what hands do you push with here in general?

And if you had just received and folded 62 the last 5 times, do you push with it here because you will get the necessary respect?

[microbet]

First complication: Hero's ICM for folding depends on what happens to SB and BB. It can be as high as 35% if SB takes out BB.

[Bigwig]

If I'm the BB I call this everytime. Especially against someone raising loose.