Home team

TheRonin · #1 09-23-2005, 11:39 AM

When evaluating football game how many points do you adjust for teams playing at home.

I was evaluating the No. Ill. v. Akron game (No. Ill -7) and the numbers seem to indicate that No. Ill is marginally better than Akron in most departments, there is a bit more of a gap in between the twos offenses though. The only advantage to the game that favors the Zips are is that they are at home (home opener). How many points should I add to the Zips total or subract from the cats? or is there no sipmle answer

playersare · #2 09-23-2005, 12:15 PM

home field advantage is already built into the spread.

TheRonin · #3 09-23-2005, 12:20 PM

Obviously i'm a [censored] retard / that was stupid

TheRonin · #4 09-23-2005, 12:39 PM

home field advantage is already built into the spread.

can you give me a idea of how they come up with this number. What do you think the average points that are added for playing at home?
Ex
Akron
So. Ill. (-7)
is that -7 purely a home field adv. or is it more like -5 for homefield and say -2 for special teams?

NoChance · #5 09-23-2005, 12:49 PM

It's different for each team. I have always used 3 points when it comes to home field advantage as a general sandard. For some teams it's less and for some teams it's more.

It can also vary per sport. For the NFL I start with 3. Certain teams like KC and GB can be as high as 4 or 5. For the NBA I start with 5. For a while you could go even higher with theams like Utah, Chicago and the Lakers. It's all a rough guestimate.

playersare · #6 09-23-2005, 01:01 PM

in pro NFL, home field is generally worth 3 points ATS. however, this figure doesn't translate properly into college games because of the larger disparities between teams.

also it's not usually good strategy to lay points to a favorite playing on the road. both teams have played reasonably well against top-15 competition earlier in the season, and it is noted that Akron already has a road win and No. Ill. nearly pulled off a small upset against Northwestern.

I honestly don't see any particularly good value in this game, but just going by early sharp wagering, the smart money is backing Akron +7 right now by a small margin.