5 card Draw situation

[Dan Rutter]

You are folded to in the SB, and hold something such as:
Ad Kd 6s 8c 4h. You complete, and the BB checks. You draw three to the Ad Kd and at the end of the hand wind up with a pair of Aces. Your opponent draws one card. He has been playing pretty aggresive, and he would likely have raised with two pair pre-draw.

You check to your opponent, and he bets. You are getting 2 to 1 on the call. Is this a profitable call?

[Dan Rutter]

After thinking more about it, I think it is only profitable if you know your opponent will bet if he hits his draw, or does not hit it. He has to bet this hand if he hits or not, frequently enough that you will make profit because he is bluffing to much. So against an average opponent do you think it is wise at all to call him, and see if he is bluffing, or should you just fold in this situation everytime. So basically, if this situation occured a thousand times you would show profit by check-calling your opponent everytime if you knew he would bet everytime, if he did not complete a draw and when he completed it. How do you know against a specific opponent to play your hand though, based on the 2 to 1 pot odds? You do not know if he bets when he missed everytime, or not, if you do not call him to see how he plays in that situation. I hope this question makes somewhat sense.

[randomstumbl]

I think you have to either call the bet on the end or fold your small blind against most players.

If you don't call with a pair of aces, are you just never going to call a bet? The only way that's a good play is if the BB is so predicatable that he only bets when he completes his draws. We should be able to assume he doesn't have two pair or trips because he didn't raise pre-draw.

I don't play a whole lot of draw, so I'm interested in what others have to say.

[Biggle10]

[ QUOTE ]
We should be able to assume he doesn't have two pair or trips because he didn't raise pre-draw.



[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily, lots of online draw players don't raise 2 pair, but then bet them after the draw.

I fold this predraw.

[schubes]

If he's aggressive enough that you are uncertain about folding when he bets in a situation like this, you need to raise or fold AK, depending on how likely he is to fold the blind.

If you say he has been playing aggressive then your default assumption should be his bet is a bluff more than 1/3 of the time, and you should call.

But you can do better than this. When there is no complete donk in the game, these tricky postdraw situations (and proper blind stealing) are where you get your edge. You want to determine if he will bluff enough for you to call on this particular hand. Has he been caught in a bluff recently? Have you been paying him off too much or folding too much? etc.

This may seem complicated, but default plays don't work very well postdraw. Try to outplay them.

[bigpooch]

[/b]
You check to your opponent, and he bets. You are getting 2 to 1 on the call. Is this a profitable call?
[/b]

Two to one? Which site is this? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] (This would have to be
at 3-6 on Poker Room or a skin, but then you should have
raised!)

Game theoretically, you must call with the top half of your
hands in this spot. You should not only call with AA, but
also KK and QQ otherwise you will be folding too much. If
your opponent is aggressive, he may be bluffing more than
what is correct according to game theory (which is about 1/3
depending on the rake schedule) so you may want to call
with even more than the top half of your hands in this spot.

[losingflush]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this predraw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding AK predraw against only the bb has to be wrong. IF he has a pair he may call and then fold to a bet when he does not improve and he usually wont improve. You are committed to betting whether you improve or not. However, once you suspect he has two pair then the situation is different...

[popniklas]

Easy call. Opencompleting and drawing three shows weakness and he is very likely to bluff you after drawing one.

I would raise this predraw to gain fold equity. If I am called, I would usually (depending on the circumstances and the opponent) bet after the draw regardless if I improve or not.

However, if he drew one, if would check. I would call with AA or KK, probably even a pair of jacks. If I have a read on the player as someone who very frequently bluffs with busted draws, I would call with AK high.

[Biggle10]

Well, after thinking about this, I think this is a raise/fold situation with an aggressive player to your left who's likely to raise you when you just complete the SB.

Maybe mix it up?? I'm pretty new to draw, but have been doing (relatively) well on the low limit tables.

[ADAMtheEXPERT]

Fortuneatly for you, ATE has decided to answer your question. Draw poker, is about the only game, where ATE is only the SECOND best expert in the world, after Mike Caro.
But, Mike's not here: ATE is.

Anyway, first of all, ATE does not like when people say "pre" this, "pre" that. I cannot stand people attempting the change our language. Back in the day, of draw games we said "BEFORE" the draw. If you rally want to be technical, the use of "pre" is incorrect, and ADAM hates changes.

Anyway, I also should mention that you must provide complete information, to get the best possible answer.

In this case, the number of players does not really apply, but in other cases, it will.

Was this a 5 max game, a 6 max game, or on planet, where they have 8 players (if there's ever a game)

Anyway, the most important thing to know about draw is this:

You very very rarely call after the draw, with one pair.

In fact, you really need a pretty big hand, to make a call worthwhile. This is because the typical player, does NOT bet, without aces up or better. Many, don't even bet that.

You really need to hunker down, and make very good players notes, not just "they were playing aggressivly"

Here are a few samples, of what to look for, in your notes.

(Bear in mind, that people will bet differently, depending on the number of cards drawn by opponents, number of opponents in hand, and position.

(1) Calling guidelines (or ha ha, tee hee hee: LACK THEREOF!) do they play any pair, any open end or flush draw? Do they play CATHOPS (Ed note: 'cathop" is a two card draw, to a straight flush, usually sequencial) Will they open, with a two card draw to a royal?

(2) Raising standards. Will they raise with only a big pair, if so, how big is there minimum. Will they raise with any two pair, or does it have to be kings up or better.
Do they slowplay there pat hands, or limp with them? Same for trips raise, or slowplay
Many players, will chicken out before the draw, with two tiny pair. They know, that they're chances of winning, if the opponent starts out with two higher pair, are very slim.
And, even if opponent only has one pair, that they have almost one in three to outdraw.

(3) Betting standards, after the draw. Will they bet two pair, if checked to. Or, must it be two large pair. Are they a "trips or better" bettor. Will they try to check raise. and, or course DO THEY BLUFF

(4) Drawing style. When they have trips, do they take two, or tend to keep a kicker? Quads. do they play them pat, or take a card. PAT BLUFFS. do they ever play there pairs, pat, to discourage betting after the draw, or just to be a $^@^@#^king sneaky SOB?

(5) Calling standards after the draw. What will they call with. Do they seem to be aware, that this deciscion should be based on the number of players, and the cards drawn, or do they just automatically call with two pair or better.
Important: DO THEY EVER CALL, WITH ONLY ONE PAIR If so, how high a pair.


Anyway, without more information, it's not a good idea to call in this spot. There is a difference, between aggression, and bluffing. Since you draw three, they have to think that you have a pair, and may have made two pair, and that you will call. ON the other hand, if they've shown ANY bluffin' tendencies in the past, you can slap in a call here and there. The point being: It's not SO EASY to actually get a flush draw or a straight draw, in the first place, MUCH LESS COMPLETE ONE

(Ed note: this is of course, the reason why an ATE-trained player, rarely plays straight and flush draws, and when does, it's mainly as an "image" play.)

It's just under 5-1 against them makes an open end straight.

(39-8, actual odds) And almost 4.5 to 1, agaisnt making a flush. (39-9, actual odds)

Unfortunately, the pot odds don't justify a call, soley on the basis of pot odds. HOWEVER . . . . there are of course
(for those serious students of ATE) more reasons to call

JUST DON"T PLUCKIN' call every time, in this spot.

Use game theory, to randomly call the person, about half the time, in this spot. Say, anytime the lowest card in your hand, is red.

But, only because you said that they appear to be "aggressive" MOST PEOPLE, AND I MEAN MOST, ESPECIALLY IN GAMES OF 2-4 AND LESS, JUST DO NOT BET AFTER THE DRAW, WITH ANY HAND THAT CANNOT BEAT ACES.

however, it's important to let 'em know, that you can't just be pushed around, and THIS IS THE PRIMARY BASIS, TO CALL. You're trying to discourage them from bluffing, as most of the time, they are going to get away with it, as you just don't have the pot odds, in this game.

In lower games, against average people, ATE would call about one time in six. So, if the lowest card in your hand, is, say the 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10, or jack of diamonds, you call.

In this particular spot, I'd call more frequently. The vast majority of players, WILL raise one player, with two pair, and will NOT bet two small pair, against a three-card draw. That against leaves us with a draw, which ATE's already said is against the odds, to complete.

My friends, if this article does not convince the bratty detractors that ate is truely a GENIUS of poker, then they are just too blind to see.


KEEP ON DRAWIN'


Adam, the helpful genius