($33) JJ bubble vs Big Bully

[Pasterbator]

So i was lost. How short does shorty have to be for this to be a fold? Assume big stack is pushing top 50%. How about any 2? He has been pushing almost every hand since we got down to 4, so any 2 wouldnt be too far off.

Blinds 100/200
Shorty ~400
Button ~1800
Bully ~ 4600
Hero ~ 1200

2 Folds. Bully pushes.
Hero has JJ.
Hero does what?
If i fold, what can i call with?

[tigerite]

Nasty situation.. I think I could find a call here, simply because you'll otherwise be pushing any two into the shorty who will call any two, and losing that will leave you as the short stack.

[tigerite]

If he really is pushing any two btw, you should definitely call. The inflection point (I'm allowing also for a slight reduction in UTG's stack as he will definitely lose chips overall the next round, whatever happens) is 53% push for SB.

[bluefeet]

top 50% is QQ+....close enough for me. he should be pushing any two here (becoming 99+). you're short stack after passing through these blinds if/when shortie doubles in his. if you had even 400 more chips, folding would be easier - if not prudent.

[tigerite]

Top 53% is JJ+ blue.. 3% is just really such a small difference in hands that I'm taking the risk here. Anyway you have to be only around about 70% favourite here, so even if he has Ax or Kx (with x below Q obviously) you're calling correctly.

[ace_in_the_hole]

I have to call with only 6bb behind, plus you have a read on him which should be a HUGE factor in your decision to call. He is probably drawing to 3 outs.

[Pasterbator]

Well i figured that JJ was very close either way. After taking up most of my time bank, i decided to fold. I'm in a nice little 25 buyin downswing, so i figured that if i could just get into the money, maybe it would help mentally.

That doesn't usually affect my decision, but if i had lost that hand, it would have hurt more than normal.

It might be -EV in the short term, but +EV in the long term (mentally.) Does that make sense, or am i just trying to convince myself i made the right move?

[tigerite]

The latter.. sorry.

[Pasterbator]

ehh, good to know. Thanks for the replies.

[NuklearWinter]

Easy call. ~70% chance to basically lock in a money finish and great chance at 2nd or 1st is a no brainer. Folding here is just too weak for me. Even if you are on a bad losing streak you shouldnt factor that into your decision here, it has nothing to do with the current game.