NBA picks

[arardor]

I am bored so I am going to test a theory for over unders in the NBA. I am going to try this over 50 games and see how it goes.

DEN/CLE - under 203 - 1 unit
Hou/Sea - Under 193 - 1 unit
MINN/SA - over 174 - 5 units


Going to track progress here. Any feedback on picks are appreciated.

Is the theory a secret? Is there a reason we can't know it? Is there a reason you can't track it on pen and paper in your basement, if you're not going to let us in on your brainchild? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[arardor]

2-1 YTD +5 units

I am going to have to add a factor of whether someone is returning from injury. McGrady obviously makes a huge difference for Houston.

And yes I will share my formula soon enough.

[tech]

What is the theory, or what is it based on? Niss pretty much hit the nail on the head -- if you aren't going to give us any more info than this, it isn't very useful to post it.

[tech]

Also just FYI, you need to include the juice in your unit totals. So your total would be +4.9 units.

[arardor]

I am working out the final details of it now. Basically what I am doing is taking both teams average points scored and allowed and averaging them together for a base.

I am then taking into consideration a calculation of

FG% x Assists x TO's forced (TURN OVERS)
FG% allowed x Assists allowed x TO's

I do this for each team which produces a number that will fall into the category of whether I will add or shave points from the teams averages.

My grid at present looks like this.

<950 950-999 1000-1049 1050-1099 >1099
-5 -3 1 3 5

So for the game tonight between MIL/Bos I produce the following results.

MIL 0.433 2 21.6 14 261.8784
0.462 2 21 14.9 289.1196

BOS 0.463 2 20.7 15.8 302.85756
0.448 2 20.2 17 307.6864 1161.54196

195.5 5 200.5

I multiplied in a 2 because of earlier work I did in researching this. It has no significance. So if you eliminate it you just move the numbers down. Yes this is stupid.

Anyway, I am right now focusing on games that produce a difference of at least 5. Bodog has this game currently at 202 so I will be laying off of this one.

The 3 games I am playing using this tonight will be.

(719) Seattle SuperSonics vs. (720) Portland Trail Blazers Over 191 (-105) Fri@10:05p

(709) Denver Nuggets vs. (710) New Jersey Nets Over 191 (-105) Fri@7:35p

(705) Utah Jazz vs. (706) Indiana Pacers Over 171 Fri@7:05p

Utah and Indiana produced 177.
Den and NJ produced 196.
Sea and Port produced 196.

I didn't have time this morning to do all the games but here are a few more.

Mia/Phi - at 200 on bodog. I produced 197.
Pho/NOH - at 196 on bodog. I produced 197.

1 unit each for these games. I will make sure to adjust for juice.

2-1 YTD +4.9 units

I am open to any feedback good or bad. I am just trying to figure out a means to do my due diligence when selecting the over/under for a game. I don't claim this to be a god sent method to bet the games. Just a theory that hopefully can be developed.

Flame away.

[dankhank]

that's some wild [censored]

[roundmann]

I think Niss is rather nosey.
Gonzalez

[arardor]

I got a chance to pull the rest of the information. Here are the numbers.

FG% factor Assists TO's Total O/U Bodog
MIA 0.455 2 19 13 224.77
0.432 2 20 15 259.2
0
Phil 0.461 2 20 15 276.6
0.469 2 22 12 247.632 1008.202

196 (average score) 1 (factor) 197 (my total) 200 (bodog line)

Not touching unless greater than or equal 5.


Den 0.445 2 23 15.8 323.426
0.439 2 22 17 328.372

NJN 0.44 2 21.6 14.7 279.4176
0.432 2 19.9 13.7 235.55232 1166.76792

191 5 196 191

Utah 0.418 2 20 14 234.08
0.428 2 18 16 246.528

IND 0.452 2 19 15 257.64
0.425 2 18 16 244.8 983.048

180 -3 177 171

MIL 0.433 2 21.6 14 261.8784
0.462 2 21 14.9 289.1196

BOS 0.463 2 20.7 15.8 302.85756
0.448 2 20.2 17 307.6864 1161.54196

195.5 5 200.5 202

Pho 0.459 2 26.1 16 383.3568
0.431 2 15.7 14 189.4676

NOH 0.436 2 18.4 15.2 243.88096
0.451 2 17.9 14.6 235.72868 1052.43404

192 5 197 196

Sea 0.437 2 20.9 15.4 281.30564
0.489 2 22.7 14.2 315.24852

Port 0.434 2 16 12.6 174.9888
0.451 2 19.4 15.3 267.73164 1039.2746

193 3 196 191

Orl 0.431 2 17 13.8 202.2252
0.449 2 19.5 16.6 290.6826

Dal 0.463 2 17.1 14.1 223.26786
0.442 2 17.1 14 211.6296 927.80526

184.65 -5 179 187

GSW 0.431 2 21.3 16.1 295.60566
0.435 2 21.4 14.1 262.5138

Tor 0.436 2 19.8 15 258.984
0.493 2 23.3 13.9 319.33582 1136.43928

197.85 5 203 205


CHI 0.44 2 22.2 16 312.576
0.439 2 21.5 15.6 294.4812

DET 0.463 2 23.9 13.6 300.98704
0.446 2 19.6 11.9 208.05008 1116.09432

192.2 5 197 195


WASH 0.434 2 19.2 16.1 268.31616
0.447 2 22 13.8 271.4184

LAL 0.441 2 20.3 14.8 264.98808
0.447 2 20.5 14.2 260.2434 1064.96604

195.3 3 198 200


I will have a total of 4 picks tonight.

Dal/Orl under 187 - 1 unit ADDED

[arardor]

Didn't think Grant Hill would have that big of an impact but he did. Second night a returning star makes a big difference.

3-1 isn't bad though. +2 units - vig

5-2 YTD +7 units - vig