(LC) $109 bubble - why do people call in this situation?

tigerite · #1 12-04-2005, 04:54 PM

It's not a bad beat.. but this guy is sane, seems to know what he's doing, is on many tables (it's StiffStuff) and then he makes a ridiculously bad call like this?

PartyPoker - NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Tournament | Level: 9 - 4 players (Converter: PGC)

Chip Counts:
Button: 810 Chips <--- NOTE CHIP STACK AND BLINDS
Hero: 3650 Chips
BB: 2970 Chips
UTG: 2570 Chips

Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Blinds are 250/500

PreFlop
UTG folds, Button folds
Hero is All-In, BB is All-In

(2 players) FLOP: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 6620 Chips )

(2 players) TURN: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 6620 Chips )

(2 players) RIVER: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 6620 Chips )

Final Pot:6620 Chips

Results in white below:
SB shows:8sQc,a pair of threes
BB shows:AhJd,two pairs, jacks and threes

These people boggle my brain - I thought I left this kind of nonsense behind in the $33s.

citanul · #2 12-04-2005, 04:56 PM

he called because he had a very good hand. you should understand why people do stupid things by now

tigerite · #3 12-04-2005, 04:56 PM

But he's a multitabler, probably a 2p2'er, and he should know about ICM. So why the hell call here? It makes no sense, at all.

citanul · #4 12-04-2005, 05:08 PM

he was teaching you a lesson.

tigerite · #5 12-04-2005, 05:13 PM

Laff. Possible I suppose. Oh well good luck to him.

1C5 · #6 12-04-2005, 05:14 PM

hahaha wow, are you sure this wasn't a $10 table?

tigerite · #7 12-04-2005, 05:15 PM

Nah, just some muppet. Hey ho.

Matt R. · #8 12-04-2005, 05:15 PM

How bad is this call per ICM? (don't have sngpt, figured someone could give me a # in 1/100th the time I could do it by hand).

Anyway... the more I play these, the more I'm starting to like borderline -$EV plays when my hand is clearly a favorite vs. the pushers range. I feel that even after I make the money (and in this case it will still be the bubble if he calls and wins), I can steal blinds and win pots a lot more easily when I'm the big stack. Sometimes I'm willing to make the risk of busting out at a 40% or whatever rate to get this advantage, even though the immediate risk is obvious.

I don't think I'd make this call, but it's actually really close for me. Especially since if I win, I'd have 2 shorties in the game with me with 4 people left, and there's a good chance I'd be able to make a lot in the next several hands with 750 in blinds each hand.

I wonder if it would be easy to take these considerations into effect, and say "ok, I can make this call even though ICM says the EV is -x% of the prize pool". How low could you make x with blinds this huge, assuming the other players will fold to your future pushes at an 'optimum' frequency?

tigerite · #9 12-04-2005, 05:16 PM

This isn't even borderline, it's hugely -$EV. If I have any two and he calls this it's -1.2%.

And he made nothing, I pushed the next hand with AJs and bust to his K7o.

Matt R. · #10 12-04-2005, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't even borderline, it's hugely -$EV. If I have any two and he calls this it's -1.2%.

And he made nothing, I pushed the next hand with AJs and bust to his K7o.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not always going to get a pushable hand from the button though (given that the 800 chip guy is in the BB next), and if it's folded to the guy that called you that's an instant 750 chips in profit.

I didn't realize AJo was 'hugely' -$EV though; I tend to eyeball these things. I wouldn't call with AJo either, but I think given the above you could make a case for AQ or maybe even AJs? These could be hugely -$EV too without me realizing it, but I think AJs is where I would start pondering a call.