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  #11  
Old 11-29-2005, 09:41 PM
goofball goofball is offline
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Default Re: 88 Live at the Bike. 30/60

I think UTG's hand range here is pretty small. After all that action his turn response is going to be very honest imo, if he is slowplaying a big hand he's not going to continue to slowplay it by calling 2 cold. If he had a pocket pair we would have heard from him more on the flop, and if he has a J I think he likely bets the turn. The most likely hand a reasonable villian holds after this action is two big cards that got stuck in for two bets on the flop and then picked up a heart draw on the turn.
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  #12  
Old 11-29-2005, 09:50 PM
dankhank dankhank is offline
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Default Re: 88 Live at the Bike. 30/60

i like calling, then calling most rivers. you don't know where you're at well enough to justify a three-bet against two opponents.
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  #13  
Old 11-29-2005, 09:59 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
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Default Re: 88 Live at the Bike. 30/60

Goofball, I don't think you understand just how passive UTG is. If he has 99,TT,QQ this is exactly how he plays it. AJ, probably considering I am repping AA/KK and SB is repping trip 3s. That is how he looks at this hand. From UTG's eyes, MP1 is a tight agro who likely has QQ-AA, AK. SB is a wild monkey who may or may not have the 3. From UTG's eyes.
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  #14  
Old 11-30-2005, 01:31 AM
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Default Re: 88 Live at the Bike. 30/60

[ QUOTE ]
obviously my problem isn't SB. Sure, my read may be off, but I am pretty sure that it he is spewing. But what about UTG calling 2 cold on the flop, and 2 more cold on the turn? He is the kind of guy who doesn't know how to fold a pair, but he'd give up on overcards by now, right? Having played with him, I'm pretty sure he does. I also don't think he is raising 66/77 PF.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow this hand got out of control. Here's my take on it...

PREFLOP: To me this is a fold, 88's do not play well against the range of this raiser in his position, but if you re gonna play it, it looks to me that you would be better off just cold calling since judging by the texture of this table 3 betting will never get you heads up with the initial raiser. Cold calling and play for set value seems to be the best option at this table if youre are going to play, however I still think folding is your best option in this spot.

Lets fast forward to the TURN: I believe in your read on the wild player even after he checkraises the turn, but there is still chance your read is wrong, and it is pretty clear to me at this point that the initial preflop raiser has a better hand than you and he is not folding. Another thing thats important is it is always possible that the wild player has J5. I would fold the turn to the checkraise more so becuz the UTG+1 called than the action of the wild player, but the small chance the wild player does have a 3 or a jack does contribute to why I would fold the turn. I know the pot is big but I just dont see how youre ahead here often enough to justify continuing in this hand.

Side note: If you feel compelled to stay in this hand, just call the turn checkraise, reraising would be insane.
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  #15  
Old 11-30-2005, 05:10 AM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
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Default Re: 88 Live at the Bike. 30/60

Westley, you just summed up everything I was thinking on the turn. "God damn it, Brendan, this was a PF fold and you know it. UTG has TT. He's not maintaining delusions of winning this with an Ace or king on the river. SB MAY have the damned 3, even though you know damn well he doesn't. Your only hope now is to spike an 8 and you don't even have the implied odds to go fishing for that." I folded the turn.

The river was T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], SB checked, UTG bet and I thought, "Brendan, you're a genious. He just filled up." Sadly no. He had the flush. As expected, SB turns over 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and UTG flips A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Though my error saved me $120, I felt like a damned idiot. The salt in the wound was SB berating UTG for fishing down the flush and getting lucky on him.
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  #16  
Old 11-30-2005, 05:35 AM
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Default Re: 88 Live at the Bike. 30/60

[ QUOTE ]
Westley, you just summed up everything I was thinking on the turn. "God damn it, Brendan, this was a PF fold and you know it. UTG has TT. He's not maintaining delusions of winning this with an Ace or king on the river. SB MAY have the damned 3, even though you know damn well he doesn't. Your only hope now is to spike an 8 and you don't even have the implied odds to go fishing for that." I folded the turn.

The river was T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], SB checked, UTG bet and I thought, "Brendan, you're a genious. He just filled up." Sadly no. He had the flush. As expected, SB turns over 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and UTG flips A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Though my error saved me $120, I felt like a damned idiot. The salt in the wound was SB berating UTG for fishing down the flush and getting lucky on him.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thats hilarious. I still think that folding this turn was the right move. I mean think about it, what just happened here was a low probability event, the event that just occurred here was that you actually did have the best hand on the turn, But even in this best case scenario there were still 15 cards that could hit the river to beat you. So even when you do somehow have both opponents beat on the turn that small percentage of time, you will still get rivered 33% of the time, but when you are trailing the vast majority of time, you will be drawing to 2 outs. I still think you made the right decision to fold the turn.
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  #17  
Old 11-30-2005, 03:59 PM
dankhank dankhank is offline
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Default Re: 88 Live at the Bike. 30/60

[ QUOTE ]
I still think you made the right decision to fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't. let's look at the facts: he allowed a passively played AK to "push" him off the best hand, on a board very friendly to 88. that's one of the biggest mistakes you can make in this level of games. the UTG is giving off clear AK vibes and CSC overthought the situation to the point of folding.

CSC, you and i play pretty similarly (or at least did in the past) and this to me is the kind of hand where if you look at it step by step it isn't bad, but overall it was really butchered. you screwed up in both aggresiveness and tightness. you three-bet a UTG player which in itself is risky, trying to take advantage of his postflop weakness by seizing initiative. in the end you gain nothing from this initiative since you let the maniac SB steal it and use it to make you fold a winner.

if the plan at the start of this hand was to be able to make a tough laydown if need be, then you would've had your chance on the river. instead you made the tough laydown when you were ahead.
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  #18  
Old 11-30-2005, 05:11 PM
golferbrent golferbrent is offline
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Default Re: 88 Live at the Bike. 30/60

I think you are being too results oriented. I dont think the fold was terrible... i think it was probably a 50/50 play. UTG could have so many holdings here that have us beat it isn't even funny.

Personally the 2 holding I would be most concerned about would be hands like 9-9,10-10, and A-J. Irregardless of whether he has that or not... if he doesnt then he surely has lots of outs to beat us.

The biggest problem with this pot is that CSC has made the pot too big by overplaying a marginal hand. I think he has made a great read on the SB. The only other thing I would say is this...

At that spot on turn, you have to decide if you are calling 2 more bets. If you call on turn you have to call on the end, and I don't have a problem letting that hand go. (Although I would cuss myself for making the pot so big)
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  #19  
Old 11-30-2005, 05:31 PM
17percent 17percent is offline
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Default Re: 88 Live at the Bike. 30/60

overplaying middle pairs unimproved in limit games is one of the biggest mistakes you can make in limit poker... this is a prime example...
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  #20  
Old 11-30-2005, 05:36 PM
dankhank dankhank is offline
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Default Re: 88 Live at the Bike. 30/60

i'll add that having a clear read on the SB being behind (and drawing slim) is more reason to stay in this pot, since he's putting in so much additional money. i see your point about being results oriented, but my point is, you have one opponent you're sure you're ahead of, and one you're not sure about, and you fold. meh.
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