Straightforward (?) hand from yesterday's PP $215

[eastbay]

This one's been bugging me all day today. 250 left, money is at 140. Average stack is about 6k, I've got 5500.

New table, I've seen one orbit, haven't played a hand, raiser in question hasn't either. Blinds 150/300.

I pick up AQo in MP, UTG+1 raises to 900. What's your move?

eastbay

Folding is probably fine, I'd probably take a flop, and get all my chips in if an A or Q flops. Otherwise I'd leave a lot of my stack behind.

[BriPlay]

id have to call here..i dont think raising helps since UTG will probably call this. Do you have any READ on this guy?
in absence i'd call, see flop and see what he does (use your position to your advantage).
Brian

[KneeCo]

Had this back and fourth on MSN with Rizen, thought it was fairly interesting.

[ QUOTE ]

KneeCo® says:
I probably call, you?
Eric says:
I think calling is awful there personally
I think it's push/fold at that stage with that stack
KneeCo® says:
but you have a good hand and position
Eric says:
in that position
Eric says:
you're in MP, calling allows people to come in behind you
Eric says:
and you'll be playing for a ~2k pot with 4.5k left
Eric says:
that's not much maneuvering room
KneeCo® says:
well I dont really like a push there
Eric says:
reasoning?
KneeCo® says:
against an UTG raiser who seems, based on very limited info, to be tight
if you get called, you're probably behind
or have a flip against 99-JJ
and mucking AQ seems a little weak
not that I dont fold that hand sometimes
sometimes without a second thought
Eric says:
well, if your range is right, why is mucking awful?
Eric says:
you've pretty much just said his range is 99+ AQ+
is that accurate?
KneeCo® says:
I think thats his range for calling
KneeCo® says:
a push might get him to fold ATs/AJ and a mid pp
Eric says:
well, I think calling puts you in a very tough situation post-flop
KneeCo® says:
agreed
Eric says:
I mean it may be weak to fold AQ PF
but calling then folding on the flop is weaker IMO
KneeCo® says:
I dunno, its bothering me
Eric says:
I dunno... I think your stack is too small to be calling raises to 900
Eric says:
I think you have to push or fold
KneeCo® says:
I can see that
but which? lol
Eric says:
with no reads on the villian, I probably push, I think pushing is +cEV there
I mean unless he holds AA you're 30% at worst to win
I think he folds ~35-40% of the time
and I'd guess you have about 40% equity against his range when he calls
KneeCo® says:
you think my ranges were fair?
Eric says:
not knowing the player, yeah
KneeCo® says:
equity win / tie

Hand 1: 35.5989 % [ 00.26 00.09 ] { AcQd }
Hand 2: 64.4011 % [ 00.55 00.09 ] { AA-99, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
KneeCo® says:
add to that the possibility of getting a fold
Eric says:
so it's just a question of what your FE is
KneeCo® says:
which may be offset byb the chance of running into a big hand behind you
KneeCo® says:
we don't have the other stacks in the question
Eric says:
it's close IMO... I wouldn't blame a person for folding there at all
Eric says:
I personally would say push/fold/call is the order of the moves, with push/fold being very close, and call being WAYYY behind
KneeCo® says:
so how big does your stack have to be before you can consider calling?
Eric says:
I think the call can be no more than 15% of your stack, and I prefer it be closer to 10% before calling with a hand like AQ or TT
KneeCo® says:
the problem I do see with calling is that you pretty much have to play fit or fold
KneeCo® says:
cause you know the cont bet is coming
Eric says:
yep
KneeCo® says:
and can't really play against it unless you hit
Eric says:
and the truth is, if you're up against AK or KK (the most likely hands that have you dominated) you're screwed if you hit anyways
KneeCo® says:
AA?
Eric says:
unless you hit the A vs the KK
Eric says:
AA is very unlikely against AQ
Eric says:
not impossible
Eric says:
but KK is about twice as likely
Eric says:
6 permutations of KK, 3 of AA
KneeCo® says:
pfft online tournaments are for wimps, all this pf play


[/ QUOTE ]

[schwza]

nice post.

people should post more convo's like this. nice change of pace to read.

[adanthar]

I agree with Rizen; calling is awful.

My default play is to fold and I don't think pushing is good vs. that range at all, mostly because it's a razor thin push (assuming a tight -but not very tight- range) *before* factoring in people calling behind you.

Also, vs. guys like me that are hyper aware of position and stack size and will sometimes open fold hands like KQ/AJ up front, that push would suck.