Why is it possible to get runner runner cards to win? - Page 2

winky51 · #11 11-28-2005, 12:53 AM

In the midst of all the sarcastic responses I will give you a real one.

Lets say you got AK and flop As Th 6d in a loose game. This seems like a reasonable safe flop for you vs 6 loose players. So now you get just 3 callers. Assume the following hands

Jh 9h
8d 7c
Td 4d

With the board above you will win 56% of the time. Of course by the river only the fish that hits is showing his rediculous hand which seems to be the largest suckout on the planet. People play like idiots and out draw you with seemilngless retarded odds, thats poker. Add all these little chances together and its much larger than you think. Like ants taking down the large beetle. I have seen players call 2 cold with one over and a backdoor draw to beat my pair + draw. They do it and its frustrating.

But you also have to know when you have a marginal hand with more outs. Take this for example.

Opponent Qd Jc
You Ah 2h
Flop: 3h Qs 2d

It seems like you are far behind here but in actuallity you have a 26.2% chance to win by the river.

Change the hands to this

Opponent Qd Jc
You Kh 4h
Flop: 3h Qs 5d

You basically have nothing. No draw no pair. But if you add up all the weak backdoors and overcard you look at 20.7% to win the hand by the river. So now take 5 loose players calling with these kinds of hands. Adds up doesnt it.

So when facing several loose opponents their added crappy draws can make you 50/50 at best sometimes. 6 players call with a 6% chance to win each is still 36% chance they beat you. Hope this helps.

Kaeser · #12 11-28-2005, 03:24 AM

I think one of the best examples of this was in super system. They show hand where you have AK on a K high board against six other hands. Every card above a 3 on the turn that didn't help made someone else at least 2 pair.

tongni · #13 11-28-2005, 04:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Are there people who exist, who feel, even at higher limit poker that calling down 2 random cards and hitting gutshot gutshot runner runner straight draws are worth shooting for?

[/ QUOTE ]

Party Poker 100/200 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (5.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Results in white below: 
SB has 3d 7d (straight, seven high).
Hero has As Ks (one pair, aces).
Outcome: SB wins 9.50 BB. 

Thread over.

winky51 · #14 11-28-2005, 10:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are there people who exist, who feel, even at higher limit poker that calling down 2 random cards and hitting gutshot gutshot runner runner straight draws are worth shooting for?

[/ QUOTE ]

Party Poker 100/200 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (5.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Results in white below: 
SB has 3d 7d (straight, seven high).
Hero has As Ks (one pair, aces).
Outcome: SB wins 9.50 BB. 

Thread over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Believe it or not he actually had an amazing 9% chance to beat you on the flop. Man that was a brutal bad beat.

#15 11-28-2005, 02:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]

They obviously know what cards are coming.

Although these type of people with psychic powers are somewhat rare when you encounter one or more at your table you might as well either just hand them your bankroll or get up and find a softer game.

Jimbo

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't need to be psychic, you just need a pattern map.

#16 11-28-2005, 04:37 PM

I just started studying Chaos Theory. I think that'll give the ability to predict what's going to happen in a loose aggressive game.

#17 11-28-2005, 06:04 PM

You should be happy that you can get beat by 1:33 shots. It's what keeps those less skilled in the game - most of the time with the belief that they are good poker players.

#18 11-28-2005, 11:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Surely its good thing if theyre calling bets with random junk to suckout on you?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I always hear. But from what I've seen it isn't really true. Yes, the odds and such dictate that you want these types of calls. But when one of these luck-sacks is catching his runner-runner crap, it seems to go on forever. You SHOULD be winning, but he just keeps on catching those miracle cards. Then, the luck-sack goes to another game gives away all of the money he took from you to another player.

I don't care what anyone says... It's frustrating as hell when someone constantly sucks out on you. The notion that you actually want them making those calls against you isn't very comforting when he's counting your money.

BluffTHIS! · #19 11-29-2005, 01:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't care what anyone says... It's frustrating as hell when someone constantly sucks out on you. The notion that you actually want them making those calls against you isn't very comforting when he's counting your money.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are playing at a level appropriate for your bankroll, then this should not be a problem long term. But if those suckouts endanger your roll, then you need to drop down in limits.

#20 11-29-2005, 03:40 AM

No, you won't find many of them, because they have gone broke and can't afford to play anymore. Since I do this for a living, I can tell you that I have busted many a player's bankroll after watching tables for awhile and then sitting at the ones where I can find those type of players.

Let them have their beat on you and laugh about it, because if they don't leave the table you will get their stack. If they do leave, make sure you have log of the time they played, their username, and the site, because you will want to watch for them when they come back.