When do we Flush Math down the Toilet?

[bruce]

This is a topic that bugs me. And the most frustrating thing for me is I don't have a good answer.

Let me digress a little. We all know that math is important. From my college days of four semesters of math
until the present math is important in all walks of life.

We know that math is important in poker. If the pot's big
drawing hands are profitable. If you're mathematically
inclined you can figure out exactly how large the pot ought
to be before putting in your chips. If you're an even deeper thinker you can take into consideration implied odds if there is a future round of betting.

So what am I getting at?

Let me address this in a round about way. If I'm playing
in the WSOP ME day 1 and it's the first hand of the event
and if six players limp and I raise with pocket Kings and one of the limpers moves all in I'll probably fold. It may
not be sound mathematically, but it's the first hand of the
event and the likelyhood that he has AA is too great. And
secondly (LOL) that's what TJ and Tom say in their (LOL)
great book.

But what happens if we are half way or two thirds of the way
through a big event. Let's for arguments sake say I have
AA and I'm headsup against another player who we'll say
is reasonable who calls my raise BTF. Let's say the flop
comes Q Q T with a flush draw. We both have average chip stacks and I make a pot sized bet and he moves all in. What am I supposed to do? If we analyze this mathematically and put him on a range of hands which he
will call BTF then it's probably an easy call. He may
have a smaller pocket pair, a flush draw, a straight draw,
or an outright bluff. I guess you can now figure where I'm heading with this. We call and of course he has triplicate
Queens and we're busted from the tournament and as we're walking away our friend says, "you idiot, why did you call,
it was very obvious he had three queens" and I feebly try
to explain to him that mathematically my call was correct.

Comments appreciated.

Bruce

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
... I raise with pocket Kings and one of the limpers moves all in I'll probably fold ... It may
not be sound mathematically ... the likelyhood that he has AA is too great.

[/ QUOTE ]

looks like math right there

[A_PLUS]

Math is for squares, just look into his soul and PUSH!!!!!!!!!

[bruce]

Intuitively it's likely he has Aces, but mathematically it's not.

Bruce

[bruce]

Are you trying to tell me that you have never folded Kings BTF?

I'll confess, I never have either.

Bruce

You have to adapt the math to the situation. Just because you're going to look at poker mathematically doesn't mean you need to use wide ranges.

Seriously, man, there's no debate here. Poker is a game of numbers. Granted, you can frequently estimate, so the exact math is almost always unneccessary, but if you ever deviate from the mathematically correct play, you're playing inoptimally.

[Neuge]

[ QUOTE ]
Intuitively it's likely he has Aces, but mathematically it's not.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]From a straight random statistical standpoint it's not mathematically likely. But even a donk can see it is more likely now based solely on the action. Once a good, thinking poker player analyzes the situation they can see it as probably more likely than that.

That's why we put people on hand ranges. It's not to prove we can know what another person is thinking, that's just a byproduct. It's to make our math more accurate. If we can be certain that he has AA there it makes the math absolute, fold. You can run pokerstove all day long, it won't ever say you're +EV there with kings because we know what he's holding.

Obviously tournamnet structure and payout make the math more complex as opposed to cash games, but it's still there and always will be.

[MLG]

When you play live you have more information available to you. If you can sense from an opponents manner that he is strong or weak or whatever then you can narrow down the range of hands they have more so than you can online. The more specific ranges can shift a fold to a call, or a call to a fold. Using math doesnt change, its just the specificity of the ranges.

[AJo Go All In]

go back to square one. you have no idea what you are doing.

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]

But what happens if we are half way or two thirds of the way
through a big event. Let's for arguments sake say I have
AA and I'm headsup against another player who we'll say
is reasonable who calls my raise BTF. Let's say the flop
comes Q Q T with a flush draw. We both have average chip stacks and I make a pot sized bet and he moves all in. What am I supposed to do? If we analyze this mathematically and put him on a range of hands which he
will call BTF then it's probably an easy call. He may
have a smaller pocket pair, a flush draw, a straight draw,
or an outright bluff. I guess you can now figure where I'm heading with this. We call and of course he has triplicate
Queens and we're busted from the tournament and as we're walking away our friend says, "you idiot, why did you call,
it was very obvious he had three queens" and I feebly try
to explain to him that mathematically my call was correct.

Comments appreciated.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

This displays a basic lack of understanding about "the math". When he calls before the flop, you give him a range. When he pushes over your pot-sized bet, he doesn't still have the SAME RANGE. If he'll only make that play with a Q, then his new range has you crushed. Therefore, the math says to fold. It's usually more complicated then this, maybe he'll do this with other hands. Give him a NEW range based on ALL the information available and then choose the right play. Giving a guy a range preflop and then blindly following through regardless of later action is not using math. If it was "obvious the guy had a queen" then your call is not mathematically correct, it's awful.

Hope this helps,

Steve

P.S. The kings hand is similar in that you've been given new information - the guy pushed all-in. His new range is basically AA/KK, so the mathematically correct play is probably a fold.