Flop overbet

[pzhon]

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You are a favorite over AK. You don't know you are up against AK. The 75% advantage you have over AK doesn't make up for the % of time that I believe you are behind in this hand.

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That is a reasonable position if you can back it up with a suggested range of hands or at least an estimate of how often you think TT is good here. Otherwise, it's just a restatement of the idea that you think folding is correct, which is not progress toward a better understanding of this hand.

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In the long term, in situations similar to this, you are behind a high enough % of the time that folding incorrectly in this case is not a big mistake.


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Any incorrect fold here would be a big FToP mistake (smallest against a monster draw). If you're talking about the range of hands, then according to the above, you believe folding is not a mistake at all. In neither sense would folding be a small mistake. So, please, don't say folding is a small mistake.

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I'm not in the habit of folding just because my hand is marginal, nor of getting involved because I have a strong hand.

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Backwards. Folding marginal hands in big pots and getting involved with big hands in big pots is a winning strategy [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

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That is ridiculous. You quoted me out of context. Let me add the context again:

"I'm not in the habit of folding just because my hand is marginal, nor of getting involved because I have a strong hand. The question is how my hand compares with his range of hands, and how much each of us can get paid off."

Level 1: How strong is my hand? Fold weak hands, and bet/raise with strong hands.

Level 2: How does my hand compare with my opponent's hand? Fold when my hand is weaker than my opponent's, and bet/raise when my hand is stronger.

Level 3: What does my opponent think I have? Get my opponent to fold stronger hands he hates, and call with weaker hands he likes.

There are other levels, but I'll stop there.

I was reminding you that level 1 analysis is not the end of the story. Then you quoted me out of context to make it look like I don't understand level 1 poker.

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You have such a huge edge against most of your opponents in small stakes NL games so what is the point in tangling yourself up in messes like this one?

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Once again, this is not a good argument. That there will be better opportunities later does not mean it is right to pass up a +EV situation now. The question is whether it is +EV, of course.

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As to what hands I think he has, I think its either a straight or a bigger overpair/set/2pair that is scared of seeing four to the straight + might think he can get a weak call from someone who thinks he is bluffing by over-representing a straight...although I seriously doubt he is thinking that deep. I can really see 88 here too. Bluffs and misclicks are a possibility here, but I don't think they are seen here from an unknown often enough to play for your whole stack. From the looks of the TT vs your AA hand, he seems to overplay his good hands. The problem is that most hands I think he is betting huge on the flop are ahead of your TT.


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Finally, you post a range of hands. Thank you. I would much rather see this than your philosophy of beating small stakes games.

[pzhon]

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Online NL, 6-handed. <font color="white"> 1131776263 </font>

Hero is the button, 75 BB.
Villain is MP, 74 BB.
There were no very short stacks at the table, though the SB had only 40 BB.

Preflop:
Fold, Villain raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2 folds.

Flop (2 players, 7.5 BB): 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain bets 32 BB. Hero...?


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Hero raises to 72 BB (all-in). Villain folds.
Hero wins 71.5 BB - rake.

I felt the Villain had a vulnerable hand like two pair, TPGK, 99-QQ, or AK. This bet looked to me like a protection bet, not a pure bluff or value bet, but I felt I was ahead of the range of hands he could have because so many of them were just one lower pair. I'm not confident of this, as this was a strange situation, which is why I posted.

Just calling looks hideous. It would tell AK or A7, which have 6 and 5 outs, to get out unimproved, but I might lose my whole stack if the "free card" helps them. If I raise, the Villain gets 2.8:1 on the call, which gives a 6-out draw a tough decision. That means I don't face the problem of being ahead of his range, but behind when he calls. The raise is an efficient protection bet when I'm ahead.

I was surprised at the fold. Maybe he didn't consider the odds he was getting, and just wanted to keep playing without adding money. Maybe he had a semi-bluff involving overcards, and no longer felt the overcards would be good when I raised.

[sillyarms]

My default here is fold. To me this guy is an unknown. When an unknown makes a 32bb bet into a tiny pot, Time to fold. There is yet have enough information about him to make a big call here. There are players who I would raise here, but these are players whose playing styles I understand. Unless you know he is very agressive, and very stupid. It's a fold. If he is both of those things. The decision is to raise or call. I'd personally raise in that case. There are just too many overcards that can fall. The 32bb is pot committing anyway. The problem with the raise is that he will fold all but the hands that beat TT.

Actually I think he will probably fold quite a few hand that beat TT as well - such as JJ, even QQ KK - thinking he's up against a made str8 or AA - maybe even AA
The only hand that won't fold for sure are the str8's.

Interesting posts by all concerned...
do you play at PP? if so what limits?

[SmackinYaUp]

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That is a reasonable position if you can back it up with a suggested range of hands or at least an estimate of how often you think TT is good here. Otherwise, it's just a restatement of the idea that you think folding is correct, which is not progress toward a better understanding of this hand.

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This was based on my estimates of the % of the time you are ahead here. Hand ranges come later as you know and were not needed to make my point here

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Any incorrect fold here would be a big FToP mistake (smallest against a monster draw). If you're talking about the range of hands, then according to the above, you believe folding is not a mistake at all. In neither sense would folding be a small mistake. So, please, don't say folding is a small mistake.

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Try really, really hard to follow me this time. You need to have an open mind and think about this from a different point of view. You can’t make perfect folds 100% of the time you play poker. In fact, you make folds to inferior hands every session. Are you now going to argue that you never fold the best hand, even if its K high? Is folding to bets in all of those spots a huge mistake when the best hand happens to be your K high? In each case of the hand, sure. But if you keep trying to make big calls, you’re going to kill yourself in the long run. These bad folds are small mistakes. Your hand is not quite as cut and dry, but it fits into the same category of being marginal and very likely behind.

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Once again, this is not a good argument. That there will be better opportunities later does not mean it is right to pass up a +EV situation now. The question is whether it is +EV, of course.

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Since its not certain that this is a +ev situation and since I believe there is a good chance you lose your stack here (and possibly play sub-optimally as a result) it’s an easy pass. So yes, there are better places to commit your stack in against weak players, like when you have a good chance of having the winning hand Can’t you pick a better place to get your money in than from playing back against a huge bet from an unknown while you hold nothing more than a pair of tens on a 567 board?? Don’t fall into the trap of results-oriented thinking.

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"I'm not in the habit of folding just because my hand is marginal, nor of getting involved because I have a strong hand. The question is how my hand compares with his range of hands, and how much each of us can get paid off."

Level 1: How strong is my hand? Fold weak hands, and bet/raise with strong hands.

Level 2: How does my hand compare with my opponent's hand? Fold when my hand is weaker than my opponent's, and bet/raise when my hand is stronger.

Level 3: What does my opponent think I have? Get my opponent to fold stronger hands he hates, and call with weaker hands he likes.

There are other levels, but I'll stop there.


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I would much rather see this than your philosophy of beating small stakes games.

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Lol, these two quotes look funny next to each other. Especially since they both come from you. I'd love to see the 4th and 5th levels though [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


Anyways, I feel like I’m wasting my time here. It seems to me that you had already made up your mind before making this post and was seeking confirmation. I have seen you defend your play simply by saying “what if its AK,” “you sound like an announcer at the bike,” and with other blanket, devil’s advocate statements that give us absolutely no insight into your reasoning. I am glad that you finally threw a couple hand ranges out there. That was a good start.

I think he may have mistyped. I liked your raise regardless.

[not_da_nizzles]

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Yes, TT is slightly ahead of his range. However, if I reraise, he will tend to fold the hands worse than TT, and call or push with better hands.

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So re-raise him PF and the hand plays itself. If he calls your re-raise you can fold to his inevitable flop bet and if he pushes you can fold pre-flop. If you're worrying about being committed after you re-raise, don't ... because you're not.

mj