Ace Jack on the button

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how a LAG is automatically going to give it up on the flop if he doesn't hit his hand. A continuation bet is standard stuff. And if you hit top pair and he has some kind of draw, he's likely to play it aggressively, which is a moneymaker for you in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just the point. Is it really a money maker for you in the long run? Or is it at best a break even or high risk situation?

Here's a fer-instance. The player has AsJc and flop comes 8h 6h Ad. Now let's say for example by some miracle of reading, the player puts the opponent on a suited Ah. Yet the opponent decides to push all in.

Sure there are several hands where the player is a slight favorite. But there are a couple of hands namely AhKh and AhQh where the player is all but dead and AhJh where the the player has no shot to win and the best he could hope for is a tie.

Are you the type of player who is going to risk an all-in situation like this, in which you are only a small favorite half the time, and a huge dog the other half?

Sorry, but I would prefer better situations.

Second point is your reference to a "standard continuation bet." I'm having an ongoing discussion with another player on this very point.

A "continuation bet" has become a "standard continuation bet" because everybody and their brother seems to have become a HoH disciple and now believes it is the right thing to do. So many people now do it, that it is indeed expected. This means the player is now becoming self-weighting, or predictable in his playing patterns.

However, what if the opponent thinks that the player thinks that the opponent is doing precisely this, just making a continuation bet. Then the player fires back with his top pair and bang, runs smack into a near dead draw situation like AQs or AKs.

So let's call the continuation bet what it really is, a semi-bluff. If someone is semi-bluffing constantly, then you pick your spots, and I'm sorry, cold calling or reraising with AJo is not one of those spots.

And what if it is actually a bet for value, then how are you to know for sure? Are you willing to go deep into your stack under these circumstances with AJo immediately to the left of the raiser? I'd say, thanks but no thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get what it means to "counterpunch later."

[/ QUOTE ]

What I mean by counter-punch is to cold call, semi-bluff raise, check-raise and bluff under your terms and not the opponent's. That is, the opponent is always going to be LAG unless you take some steps to back him off. Those steps are what I refer to as counter-punching, changing up your play to throw him off and make it less likely to aggressively play into you. That certainly isn't going to happen by cold-calling or reraising with AJo on the button.

Let's assume that the opponent is a LAG but is also no dummy. You cold call or reraise with you AJo on the button. Your opponent is probably smart enough to realize you are on the button and may be loose calling because you have position, or reraising to drive out the blinds and get head up on him to put him out of position. Then what? Is playing under those circumstances an effective way to back him off? No, I don't think so.

[fnurt]

I call it a standard continuation bet because years ago when I started playing poker, the preflop raiser almost always bet when it was checked to him. Hence the cliche "check to the raiser." I don't think Harrington did anything to popularize the concept at all; in fact, if anything, he advised AGAINST making continuation bets as a matter of course when you face multiple opponents. This is contrary to the thinking of many players who feel obligated to represent AA even when 4 people call their raise.

Anyway, you can make up these scenarios all day where it ends up as a coinflip for all your chips or whatever, but I still think this is as good a situation as any to play poker with the guy.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, you can make up these scenarios all day where it ends up as a coinflip for all your chips or whatever, but I still think this is as good a situation as any to play poker with the guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I think you are evading the point I was trying to make. That is, because of effective odds, the situation isn't as good as it appears. The player stands to gain very little as a moderate favorite and lose a lot as a moderate dog.

Do you believe that effective odds is the over-riding consideration for playing or not playing the hand?

If yes, then how do you justify playing the hand in the context of effective odds.

If no (effective odds is not the key consideration), then what is the key consideration for the decision to stay in the hand and how does that consideration justify staying in?

[fnurt]

I think you can always make the assumption that the other guy will put lots of chips in the pot when he is ahead and very few when he is behind, but that doesn't make it true. The entire point of poker is to make more money on your winning hands and lose less on your winning hands, and if you can't do that with the advantage of position, then you're just getting outplayed at poker, period.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
It is the second stage of the tournament. You should not take priority in worrying about blind stealing and opponent's possible attempt at blind stealing for 50 chips on the cutoff AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AJo is a garbage hand for THIS SITUATION, as in PLAYING INTO A RAISE. AJo is fine when folded to, and would also be fine when raised later in the tournament when people actually fight for the blinds. I seriously doubt hero has an accurate enough read on villain and rest of the table to answer some of your questions right now. What you end up doing is putting in half your stack, early in the tournament, into pot with Ace high without any real information by taking this line. He called your reraise preflop, and whether or not he is capable of holding garbage here is based on your read, a read which isn't good enough at this point in time for that kind of judgement I wouldn't think.

If you don't think a better situation than that will arise, you are likely wrong. Players overvalue AJ pretty heavily, and just like in the case of KQ, worst thing that can happen often enough is an ace or jack flopping.

I don't think folding AJ to a raise in this spot is too weak, I think it is a very solid play and the clear-cut best play in this situation. Once we have put ourselves in this particular situation, if opponent is a true LAG he will be calling that continuation bet on the flop quite often to see if you show weakness on the turn, so you aren't learning much by betting here(of course this is read based, but your read is what got you in the hand in the first place). A delayed continuation bet on the turn is much more likely to be scarier and successful if he doesn't have a big hand here himself and checks to you again on the turn, since you were representing a very strong hand preflop. Now instead of you showing weakness on the turn, you get to see if he does. If he bets it, you can get away for much less than you would have, if he checks it, you can make the bet now and will end up taking the pot down much more often than you would against a LAG on the flop. You represented a big hand preflop, and a check behind him instead of making a normal continuation bet on this KK9 rainbow board indicates you are either very weak (which with your reraise this early is very doubtful he can put you on without a significant read on his part) or aren't worried about taking down the pot you have bloated preflop on this street, and are ok with giving him a free card, perhaps in hopes of him catching something. Why bet the flop for another 1/4 of your stack and put yourself in such a bad position if called? Check behind him, if he checks you can throw out the bet as a solid attempt at taking the pot down. If he calls turn bet and then checks on river, you have a hard decision to make. You can check behind and hope pair of jacks is good, you can push hoping to induce a fold but not being sure if he is capable of folding a better hand. Checking behind him on the turn you show big weakness, and he may bet river with nothing, and then you have another hard decision. If he calls turn and bets river, you get to get away from the hand -only- losing half your stack.

He called your preflop re-raise, so your re-steal had failed*, why take this less-than-marginal situation this far this early? This isn't about waiting for AA, this is just about a bad spot hero put himself in by simply choosing to play a marginal hand into a raise early in the tournament, and it is a big leak in many players' game. A call PF here can get you in just as much trouble, although in this situation you would have likely saved hero some chips. Doesn't mean it is a much better way to play it though.

*With AJ, a reraise is more of a re-steal, which you can pull on a LAG that has been raising a lot of pots but capable of folding, where you don't really want a call, and its pretty early to be employing moves like that, unless once again you have some kind of remarkable read. A book can be written about the trickyness of AJ/KQ type of hands, and clogging up that one leak alone will impact your game big time. Being results oriented here, compare a fold to any possible line in this situation. You tell me folding here is too weak? Look how much trouble it would save you, and how many complicated decisions you get to avoid. Playing KQ and AJ into early into raises in similar situations like this will often end up putting you in difficult scenarios, just like it had here. I apologize for writing an essay about it here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but this is the kind of recurring situation that costs many players many chips, and is an easily fixable leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't envision any hand that he could possibly have where the flop would put him in a trouble spot and he could lose his whole stack. If he had A-10, then he could easily get away from that.