Stud Tourney Hand

[PoorLawyer]

What do you think here?
The tourney is down to about 13 left with the top 8 getting a $300+20 entry to the WCOOP on stars. I am sitting around 10th I think. It is typical late tourney strategy here with a lot of steal-raises with the highest upcard. Do I push my hand here or wait until I know I am ahead?
What do you do on 3rd when you get 3 bet by seat 6 after seat 8 with the Ace calls 2 cold? There were hardly any 3 bets happening so I think I have to think he has the Kings or some other real hand and the guy after me sure looks like aces to call my raise. Can I give it up after he reraises me? I still would have had about 10K left and I have to worry about the Ace capping it...

Tournament - 7 Card Stud High - Level XII (1,500/3,000), Ante 200, Bring-In 500 (hand converter)

Seat 1: 30,301
Seat 2: 29,739
Seat 4: 20,617
Seat 5: 50,229
Seat 6: 5,089
Hero: 13,242
Seat 8: 29,167

3rd Street - (0.93 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___folds

4th Street - (9.27 SB)

Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls 389 and is all-in
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (5.76 BB)

Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___all-in
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

6th Street - (5.76 BB)

Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___all-in
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

River - (5.76 BB)

Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___all-in
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Total pot: 5.76 BB

Results:
Total pot 14678

Seat 6: [Kh Th Kd 6d Kc 3d 6c] (a full house, Kings full of Sixes)

Hero: [Qc Qd 8d 8s 7s Jc 5s] (two pair, Queens and Eights)

[Andy B]

Tough spot. I can see folding right away on third. Against an obvious-playing opponent in a cash game, a guy who almost has to have Kings to raise, this would probably be the best play. While knowing nothing about your opponent, it does seem a little more likely than usual that he has split Kings. First off, he doesn't have the highest door card. Secondly, the most likely "stealing" hand is a three-flush, and he can't really have one with all those diamonds out.

I can see calling as well. It is still at least somewhat likely that he's on a steal, and given the nature of tournament at this stage, it's fairly likely that no one else will call anyway. This will allow you to get away from your hand if things go south.

If you really think this guy is on a steal, then raising is probably the best play. Really, it can't be far wrong, because even if he does have Kings, you'd rather play this one heads-up, especially against a smaller stack--the only smaller stack at your table.

When he three-bets, it sure looks like you're beaten. Even so, you're pot-committed. I think that it is imperative that you make it four bets to give the Ace a chance to fold. It's better to get it heads-up as a small dog than to have to fade a third player who has the capacity to build a side pot that you don't want to play. I am somewhat amazed that he called two bets cold and then folded to a three-bet. I don't know that I've ever seen anyone do that. Well, I can think of one guy I used to play with who would do things about as irrational as that.

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
Tough spot. I can see folding right away on third. Against an obvious-playing opponent in a cash game, a guy who almost has to have Kings to raise, this would probably be the best play. While knowing nothing about your opponent, it does seem a little more likely than usual that he has split Kings. First off, he doesn't have the highest door card. Secondly, the most likely "stealing" hand is a three-flush, and he can't really have one with all those diamonds out.

I can see calling as well. It is still at least somewhat likely that he's on a steal, and given the nature of tournament at this stage, it's fairly likely that no one else will call anyway. This will allow you to get away from your hand if things go south.

If you really think this guy is on a steal, then raising is probably the best play. Really, it can't be far wrong, because even if he does have Kings, you'd rather play this one heads-up, especially against a smaller stack--the only smaller stack at your table.

When he three-bets, it sure looks like you're beaten. Even so, you're pot-committed. I think that it is imperative that you make it four bets to give the Ace a chance to fold. It's better to get it heads-up as a small dog than to have to fade a third player who has the capacity to build a side pot that you don't want to play. I am somewhat amazed that he called two bets cold and then folded to a three-bet. I don't know that I've ever seen anyone do that. Well, I can think of one guy I used to play with who would do things about as irrational as that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Andy. That is an interesting point about capping to get the A out. I too was surprised and thought for sure I was behind in 2 spots and wasn't thinking about putting in more money. I probably should have just folded as I can't think of anything that the A could have besides a pair of aces in that spot. Turns out he must not have, but even the chance of that plus the good chance of split kings and I think I should have saved myself the extra bets I ended up putting in.

I ended up getting sucked out on about 10 hands later with KAK against a big stack who called my raise with 99Q. Nothing worse than playing for 4.5 hours to end up 2 spots out of the money.