I think I should check this turn...??

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really want to bet this too. I know I shouldn't, but I know I would.

BB being loose and passive, taking a free card here might not be bad. If you bet the turn and UTG+2 raises and BB folds, what are you thinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

i figure he has something that beats TP, so i have to hit my flush or straight to win is what i'm thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]


Can you explain how you "figure" this based on the fact that he called your flop bet?

[@bsolute_luck]

he's passive. he either has J9s and the turned straight, TT for trips, 2pair QT, or the 8.- looking at my description, i put that under BB, but forgot UTG+2.

i was pretty sure that both would call if i bet, as they either had the Q, the 8, looking for some gutshot, or an overcard (K or A).

maybe i should leave time for more discussion, but i did bet as i guessed/hoped they didn't have the 8, figured 1 of my overcards were good (probably not both for reverse domination), plus the J and the improved flush draw. so figured it became a semi-bluff, where even if they called, if i'm behind i have a lot of outs, but i'm not sure if it was correct.

Turn T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, BB calls

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, BB calls

BB has ATo
UTG+2 has Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero sucks out for the rivered straight [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[baronzeus]

So you were wrong about your guess? When a passive player calls your flop bet it could mean anything.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
So you were wrong about your guess? When a passive player calls your flop bet it could mean anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

no i wasn't wrong. if he raised me on the turn i was guessing he had better than Top Pair. my other guess i was right that neither had the 8.

i was actually pretty close what they had. i feared UTG+2 had KQ or AQ as those seem to be typically cold calling hands. BB i figured could have anything, but in addition to A/KQ i threw in any Ace and gutshot hands like J/T9 or something, and pocket pairs.

[baronzeus]

Sorry I misread your post. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[bozlax]

Let me work this in my head, quickly (I may not even post this, depending on what conclusion I reach):

You have 9 heart outs, all good; 4 jack outs, all good; and 6 overcard outs, subject to reverse-domination so we'll cut that in half and call it 3; grand total = 16 outs. Oops, counted the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] twice, make that 15 outs. With 47 cards left in the deck, you're just under 33% with 2 opponents, so even if both call it's not quite a value bet.

Will a bet take the pot for you? Doubtful, given your reads.

Finally, you're not closing the action so a bet might be raised by the unknown UTG+2 or check-raised by BB.

If I count right, there are 9 bets in the pot so you could call 3 if need be.

Ok. I say bet-call. You might just take the pot, here, and ifyou don't your hand is too strong to give a free street.

[Watain]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me work this in my head, quickly (I may not even post this, depending on what conclusion I reach):

You have 9 heart outs, all good; 4 jack outs, all good; and 6 overcard outs, subject to reverse-domination so we'll cut that in half and call it 3; grand total = 16 outs. Oops, counted the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] twice, make that 15 outs. With 47 cards left in the deck, you're just under 33% with 2 opponents, so even if both call it's not quite a value bet.

Will a bet take the pot for you? Doubtful, given your reads.

Finally, you're not closing the action so a bet might be raised by the unknown UTG+2 or check-raised by BB.

If I count right, there are 9 bets in the pot so you could call 3 if need be.

Ok. I say bet-call. You might just take the pot, here, and ifyou don't your hand is too strong to give a free street.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, you analysis and recomendation seems to mismatch.

Why would you bet the turn if:

1: It´s not for value.
2: You properbly behind (trusting the reads)= you chances to take the pot is to slim.
3: You might even risk getting raised!

?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

checking with outs comes to play when you are last to act and you have the option of betting or checking behind. with a player to act behind you, you are deferring this option to that guy basically limiting your options to checking and having to call if he does bet, while betting the turn yourself in this situation may get you to a showdown or even take the pot down right there. when you're checking in this spot, you aren't really checking behind and getting free cards, you're having to call a bet many times here and taking away your own bluffing equity when you check and call or having it checked through.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, you analysis and recomendation seems to mismatch.

Why would you bet the turn if:

1: It´s not for value.
2: You properbly behind (trusting the reads)= you chances to take the pot is to slim.
3: You might even risk getting raised!

?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. I noticed that, too, but decided to let it slide. (1) It's close enought to being for value that I think you can get away with it, especially with what is a fairly well-disguised hand. (2) &amp; (3) I tend to doubt that you're winning the pot, here, but I also doubt you're getting raised (both based on the read), so my default line is the one I go with...if I've been the aggressor up to now, I will continue to bet to keep people from taking a shot at me. I would call if bet into, so I'm going to bet and keep control of the hand.

[cfjr2]

If he has something that beats TP then you need the flush or a str8 to win. I put that at 12 outs (max - probably should be discounted).
12 out of 45 cards is 12 to 33 or 1 in 4 so your pot equity is 25%. you only get 2 bets to each one you put in (1 in 3) so your value bet seems to be -EV to me.