What the...? - Page 2

marbles · #11 03-11-2003, 12:42 PM

"In my mind, the button has set/big flush draw/overpair at 70%/20%/10% likelihood."
--Looking back, I'd say these numbers look reasonable. At the time, though, I didn't consider a set to be likely at all... Maybe 50%. Of course, I should have, as his play was much more consistent with 77 or 22 than it would be with AA. The flush draw seemed much more likely to me than 20%, hence calling him down; again, I have no real reasoning, that was just my hunch.

Homer · #12 03-11-2003, 01:01 PM

I think the likelihood of the flush draw decreases once your opponent bets into such a large field again on the turn. If he was on a flush draw he should have taken the free card there, in my opinion. Before his turn action, I would have said 55/40/5 or something like that, but once he bets the turn the probability of him being on a flush draw decreases.

As long as you had some kind of thought process that caused you to believe calling down was the best play, you shouldn't be too concerned. With more experience, it becomes easier to determine the likelihood of opponents having certain hands.

-- Homer

marbles · #13 03-11-2003, 01:10 PM

"As long as you had some kind of thought process that caused you to believe calling down was the best play, you shouldn't be too concerned."

Thought process for all three calls (shady though it may be):
Flop: I'm getting gigantic odds, I'd be insane to not see the next card.
Turn: Probability that I'm ahead + probability the river bails me out is big enough, given the pot size.
River: Probability my jacks can hold up (in other words, probability he's firing one last shot with a busted draw) is good enough given pot odds.

Obviously, the river is the most dubious call, but I just couldn't bear the thought of him scooping with anything I could beat. Humanity strikes again.

Punker · #14 03-11-2003, 01:32 PM

By betting, you ensure the flop gets bet and give one overcard hands a chance to fold (KT for example). You may also get the ideal:

You bet. Two people call. The button raises. You 3-bet. The limpers fold and you are heads up, with extra dead money in the pot. You can say "oh they won't fold once they've put a bet in the pot", but I don't agree. They will, and often.

The "worst" scenario here is you bet and everyone calls. However, it is important to note that you also have an overcard, so there are potentially only 6 cards that hurt on the turn. At this point, I would strongly consider checking the turn and trying to get to showdown cheaply.

Checkraising is nice. Betting and three betting should serve the same purpose, but without the risk of a flop check around, and with the potential benefit of getting more dead money in the pot.

I also don't see why you are so sure that by betting and three betting, I will build some enormous pot. It's also likely to thin the field. You simply assume that I will bet, 3 people will call, I will reraise, everyone will call? If everyone calls 3 bets on the flop, hey guess what? I don't need to take my QJo any further because it's almost certainly way way behind. What is likely to happen in the scenario you play is that you check, some EP or MP bets, and a couple of people call. You then checkraise, and everyone calls. Now you've increased the pot size a fair bit, and not really managed to either define your hand, your opponent's hand, or face anyone with two bets cold.

The flop checkraise is nice, but it's too risky for my tastes in this hand. My general rule of thumb is on a twotone board, bet and reraise. On a rainbow board, checkraise.

marbles · #15 03-11-2003, 02:04 PM

"The flop checkraise is nice, but it's too risky for my tastes in this hand. My general rule of thumb is on a twotone board, bet and reraise. On a rainbow board, checkraise."

You make an interesting case. I also would tend to agree with your rule of thumb in general. Two things about this particular situation put checkraising ahead of bet-reraise in my mind, though:

1. This table was fairly aggressive postflop. I mentioned this very briefly in my initial post, but it's a key point in the hand. Rarely was a flop checked around.

2. My kicker was dominated. If I get raised by a late position better, he may very well be on a flush draw, but then again, he may have me outkicked and drawing nearly dead... And I wouldn't know which until it's basically too late (when he either caps the flop or raises the turn). That's why I lean towards betting it with AJ, and checkraising with QJ.

Punker · #16 03-11-2003, 02:39 PM

> 1. This table was fairly aggressive postflop. I mentioned this very briefly in my initial post, but it's a key point in the hand. Rarely was a flop checked around.

It also makes it almost certain that a flush draw will raise you but not cap, and a better jack or two pair/set hands will cap you on the flop. Its a cheap time to find out if you have the best hand. Checkraising has a certain aura to it that tends to cow even better hands into not 3-betting. I'm not saying checkraising here is bad or wrong; it's just not what I would have done.

> 2. My kicker was dominated. If I get raised by a late position better, he may very well be on a flush draw, but then again, he may have me outkicked and drawing nearly dead... And I wouldn't know which until it's basically too late (when he either caps the flop or raises the turn). That's why I lean towards betting it with AJ, and checkraising with QJ.

If you know after the flop action, isn't that soon enough? If you are capped on the flop, you certainly don't need to continue with the hand.

Punker · #17 03-11-2003, 02:45 PM

They may all have those 5 outs, but whether they can call with them is in doubt. Further, many of the outs may be duplicated by a possible flush draw. Assume he believes 1/3 people in the hand have flopped a pair, and 1 has flopped a flush draw. He assumes he's up against approximately 13-15 outs in this spot. It's not the worst thing in the world to wait till a safe card comes on the turn to raise.

Like I say, I wouldn't have played the hand the way he did, but it's not the worst gamble I've ever seen.

marbles · #18 03-11-2003, 02:55 PM

"Like I say, I wouldn't have played the hand the way he did, but it's not the worst gamble I've ever seen."

--Ditto on both counts. Thing is, the stars have to align just right for it to pay off; it can pay off pretty huge when it works, and it certainly did for him in this case.

SoBeDude · #19 03-11-2003, 03:03 PM

Collectively, the field is hot on his tail; he needs to knock people out and/or punish their draws.

True. He does need to punish the drawing hands. How is this best accomplished? And how can he knock people out? Many players would wait until the turn to raise, assuming that after your check-raise you'd lead the turn. So if he smoothcalled the flop then he could raise the turn. Problem is the callers are between the two of you and his raise will not push anyone out, even on the turn. Also, by waiting until the turn, he's given away a card that might help someone make a hand. So a turn raise, instead of his raise coming before two cards, comes before one.

Also given his position, a preflop raise simply announces he has a hand, but really won't push many people out...certainly none of the callers will fold, and one of the blinds will probably stay in as well. But it would build a pot. Now by not raising preflop, who can put him on AA when he raises the flop? He's encouraging people to stay in the hand too long after the flop. This can be a good thing.

I think it was a good alternative to raising preflop. Now it will be harder to put him on a hand when he calls in the future too.

-Scott

CrackerZack · #20 03-11-2003, 03:19 PM

This is good and correct thinking. If he didn't raise pre-flop, it should be in hopes he can make is 2 bets to a bunch of checkers on teh flop to thin the field. Raising on the button pre-flop won't wold anyone who limped other than the blinds maybe. I still certainly would've done it, but a case can be made for not doing it considering it would make a huge pot and tie people on to long shot draws. On the flop, he gets the perfect situation... the guy just before him bets, he really should raise this pair and hope to get it nearly heads up right there. Your statement about the collective field is completely correct. What if a club hits next card? Will he shut it down? I realize he isn't gonna fold a flush draw with the flop raise but he's cutting their odds and it needs to be done.

For what its worth, I put him on a big flush draw, then set and gave very little consideration to over pair. Call-re-raise screams flush draw in most cases, especially this position where he can still take the free card on the turn after building a monster pot.