($22): SB play, KTo with 12.5BBs

[tigerite]

Definitely. He can call really any range from very tight to any two and it honestly doesn't matter.

[tewall]

You could try raising 2.5 x BB and then bet the same amount on the flop. I'm pretty sure this would be higher EV than pushing at a $22.

[tigerite]

Higher than +1.3%? Hmm, you'd have to play absolutely outstandingly well post flop OOP to make that back.

[tewall]

Make a guess how often people will fold to the flop bet, and work out the math. Just from the fold to the flop bet you gain. You don't have to play well post flop, just bet the flop.

The flop bet only has to work 1 in 3 times to break even, and people fold much more often than that. Anyway, make some assumptions, try out the math, and see what you think. When I've tried out calculations like this they come up better playing as I suggested as opposed to pushing. At higher levels, people will take a raise as carte blanche to move all-in, but at a $22 it's unlikely you'll be moved all-in against unless the hand is very strong (in which case you're happy you can fold).

[tigerite]

Well there's also the argument about multitabling, I mean when I have 8 on the go, I'd rather take a guaranteed +EV even if it might be slightly (and I do really think here is very slightly) less than some other way of playing which means tricky flop decisions, or the possibility of being played back at, or losing the pot to a lesser hand that would have folded pf (which also has to be factored into your calculations, don't forget). That's my take on it, anyway.

[tewall]

I understand the concern for easy to make plays when multi-tabling. However, I don't think the way I suggested is just slightly better. Make some assumptions and try out the math and see what you come up with.

I've done similar calculations, and my recollection is it's quite a bit better. I'll recheck. Of course, the tricky part is guessing how often the opponent will fold. A good thing at the lower levels is you can do this type of play again and again and the players won't figure out what's happening, as they have no concept of pot odds and such.

[tewall]

Well this was a very interesting exercize. I'd like to play around with it some more with different parameters, but here's what it looks like to me so far.

The folding equity of the two methods (push vs. raise 2.5 x BB followed by another bet of the same size) is about the same. (It might seem that the folding equity of the push should be higher, but one needs to remember that the second method is comprised of two parts, the first part is the folding equity pre-flop and the second post-flop. The folding equity post-flop includes the additional 2.5 x BB that the big blind put in.)

Ok, so the folding equity of the two methods is about the same. The win equity of the push method is about the same as the loss method of the raise method. What I mean by this is the amount of equity you gain by pushing (what you gain when you double up) is about the same as what you have remaining when you miss the flop and your stabs to pick up the blind and the pot doesn't work (when you lose in the push method, your equity is 0, since you're covered).

So the difference between the two methods is roughly the amount you win when the flop hits you. This is the most difficult part of the equation to guess at, as there are so many factors involved, but it's clear that it should be a good amount of equity.

My guess is that the raise method is about 15% more +EV than the push method.